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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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48 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Last year was a very decent year for our area. Top 30th percentile easy. Yes, Baltimore crew got shorted in Jan but it was still a respectable event outside of the low lying UHI areas. Everyone can feel however they want but I really don't follow any of the logic saying Jan 2016 was the last good event and it's been a multi year awful stretch. All statistical metrics say otherwise. The 2000 decade only had 02-03 or 09-10 if you think last year was terrrible

Eta: Jan 2000 was such an incredible reverse bust that it made the whole 99-00 winter memorable. 

January 2016 was absolutely, at least for my area, the last good event, unless your expectations for an event are quite low. An event worthy of saying a winter was good is at least storm warning level. Minor events can be good events, especially if they overperform or they are cold smoke, but they don't make a winter unless there is a parade of them. Just my opinion though.

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Last winter was decent especially compared to this winter.  But for some reason everyone predicted an epic winter last year, and when that didn't happen, people were much more disappointed than they otherwise would have been.  In retrospect it wasn't a bad winter, but everyone here seemed to have high expectations for some reason.  I hadn't heard much about the MJO until last season, when that term was thrown around every day it seems.

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50 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

January 2016 was absolutely, at least for my area, the last good event, unless your expectations for an event are quite low. An event worthy of saying a winter was good is at least storm warning level. Minor events can be good events, especially if they overperform or they are cold smoke, but they don't make a winter unless there is a parade of them. Just my opinion though.

I totally understand location specific. I was just pointing out that we had 8 events on the season and most got above normal snow. That's not a disaster in my book but agree that 2016 was the last biggie regionwide. Fairly active with most events over 1". I don't remember what bwi got. Foggy memory says mid teens.

Years like this remind us how bad we can suck. Every decade since I've been alive has a disaster imbedded in the mix. Hopefully this is getting the dud of 2020-30 out of the way...

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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

This did just happen last year.

5JOMFBPLXRHOHERFG3COD2MC4Q.png

That map really shows just how isolated the significant snowfall was. Even BWI only got 6.6. No its not a bad storm for DC, but when thats all you have to show for the last 4 years....well.... it is why DC will probably have its worst 4 year snowless stretch in the history of record keeping.

 

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Last year was a very decent year for our area. Top 30th percentile easy. Yes, Baltimore crew got shorted in Jan but it was still a respectable event outside of the low lying UHI areas. Everyone can feel however they want but I really don't follow any of the logic saying Jan 2016 was the last good event and it's been a multi year awful stretch. All statistical metrics say otherwise. The 2000 decade only had 02-03 or 09-10 if you think last year was terrrible

Eta: Jan 2000 was such an incredible reverse bust that it made the whole 99-00 winter memorable. 

In retrospect, last year wasn't awful for my yard, but every event save for one managed to under perform in one way or another, and the Jan event was basically half of what it was supposed to be for northern/eastern areas.

Last 3 winters the totals here were 8, 19.2, and 12 last winter. The second Nina winter was slightly above climo avg here, so no complaints. I have had  four 5"+ events in that span since the 2016 storm. There have obviously been worse stretches.

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6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

That was a very narrowly focused storm. I remember it was very, very lame up here. If you got a foot from that, you will have rose-tinted glasses over the last few winters for sure. Last storm of real note here was Blizzard of 2016. Been mostly garbage since. 

Agree with the first part but region wide last year was big differences with ytd snowfall totals . Some areas really struggled and it was garbage   Up here was a solid season of many events .

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1 hour ago, RevWarReenactor said:

That map really shows just how isolated the significant snowfall was. Even BWI only got 6.6. No its not a bad storm for DC, but when thats all you have to show for the last 4 years....well.... it is why DC will probably have its worst 4 year snowless stretch in the history of record keeping.

 

6.6” isn’t significant?  

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8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Agree with the first part but region wide last year was big differences with ytd snowfall totals . Some areas really struggled and it was garbage   Up here was a solid season of many events .

You also closely track stray ice pellets in April. I suspect your definition of a good season would include many tiny non-events that add up to a few inches in total.

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8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

You also closely track stray ice pellets in April. I suspect your definition of a good season would include many tiny non-events that add up to a few inches in total.

Nope...that's only @showmethesnow.lol

I got between 38 - 40" last season. A very satisfying year imo . But I've said it before I enjoy tracking year around and winter is only 1 season . Many on here are snow only weather weenies . I have a passion for all weather . That is all .

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Last year's Jan storm was great. Nothing can make up for the horrendous year we've had so far, but that storm was pretty great. Long duration cold smoke. Made the mistake of staying up for that late night meso which turned out to be the lowest rates of the 30 hour storm haha

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4 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Last year's Jan storm was great. Nothing can make up for the horrendous year we've had so far, but that storm was pretty great. Long duration cold smoke. Made the mistake of staying up for that late night meso which turned out to be the lowest rates of the 30 hour storm haha

Whoa! Good to hear from you. Been busy this winter!?  Said nobody ever. :lol: 

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Keweenaw County in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, that little jut of land surrounded by Lake Superior. Other than the West that's where the snow is. 

Calumet
(Tamarack loc.)

Day: 1.9
Season: 231.8
On Ground: 47

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1 hour ago, Scraff said:

Whoa! Good to hear from you. Been busy this winter!?  Said nobody ever. :lol: 

Heya! I've been good. Busy with school, but I guess it's good that I'm not being distracted by winter weather threats? I've been checking in every once in a while though

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15 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Heya! I've been good. Busy with school, but I guess it's good that I'm not being distracted by winter weather threats? I've been checking in every once in a while though

Yes--you have been all the better for being too busy to check in here regularly! (But undoubtedly you've felt the crapiness of the pattern, lol)

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3 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Congrats Norfolk for the win this dumpster fire winter. 1000% it wont happenf66b81f2630763ab927dd42852e97cd7.jpg

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

I’ll take that.  Seeing snow to our South is a nice development.  

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15 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Congrats Norfolk for the win this dumpster fire winter. 1000% it wont happen

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

There is a thread for posting random op run digital snow maps. :)

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There is a thread for posting random op run digital snow maps. 
Yea I know but we can start with a legit threat on this since its 10 day away. What else could go wrong, a cutter or OTS.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

6.6” isn’t significant?  

If you want to use that storm as the basis to justify the last 4 years as being "normal".

No. It isn't.

Besides, that wasn't the point. The jackpot was so small that even though it happened north of DC, BWI (which is south of Baltimore) only managed 6.6. That is a very small compact area.

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GEFS has been incrementally trying to get to a more favorable pattern in the LR. This is a pretty decent look and would be workable. Still too much blue up top. Not super cold, but at least chilly. EPS persists with too much AK trough and mild air in our source region. GEPS  looks kinda decent, but not as good as the GEFS- sort of in between the other 2. So as usual, we wait. At least there are some signs of possible changes.

1582696800-mVQ1zp0lUiw.png

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GEFS has been incrementally trying to get to a more favorable pattern in the LR. This is a pretty decent look and would be workable. Still too much blue up top. Not super cold, but at least chilly. EPS persists with too much AK trough and mild air in our source region. GEPS  looks kinda decent, but not as good as the GEFS- sort of in between the other 2. So as usual, we wait. At least there are some signs of possible changes.
1582696800-mVQ1zp0lUiw.png&key=39a8769358b90fe0ab11afc4ae4939a988c0f4787fea2fa53e853c9ff7bcbcb7
I noticed eps had some blue in the southeast around feb 20

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

GEFS has been incrementally trying to get to a more favorable pattern in the LR. This is a pretty decent look and would be workable. Still too much blue up top. Not super cold, but at least chilly. EPS persists with too much AK trough and mild air in our source region. GEPS  looks kinda decent, but not as good as the GEFS- sort of in between the other 2. So as usual, we wait. At least there are some signs of possible changes.
 

I noticed eps had some blue in the southeast around feb 20

At this point I am just monitoring the big picture LW pattern for possible favorable shifts. Too far out to get into details. We are stuck in the suck for at least the next 10 days in all likelihood. Problem with the EPS in the LR is it maintains a strong AK vortex that just pumps Pacific air into N America. No legit cold air even close to us at day 15.

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At this point I am just monitoring the big picture LW pattern for possible favorable shifts. Too far out to get into details. We are stuck in the suck for at least the next 10 days in all likelihood. Problem with the EPS in the LR is it maintains a strong AK vortex that just pumps Pacific air into N America. No legit cold air even close to us at day 15.
Yep...euro shows all blue in the same areas that we talk about the ridge bridge smh

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