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weatherwiz

February 5-7 Wintry Mess Potential

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems a lot watch .. in house model FTW

 

What in the hell is an in-house model anyways? Am I seriously to believe NBC has the processing power to run there own weather model or is it some algorithm of current models available? Generally curious. 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems a lot watch .. in house model FTW

 

He's blown forecasts before himself.  Yes high winds are something people should be prepared for but this is an arrogant and unprofessional tweet.  Someone could easily rub that sheet right back in his face when he blows one himself. 

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26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

idk...I haven't really looked at much. Chris just said a rogue gust like that near PVC wouldn't have surprised him. That home site is at 49ft too.

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=F5907&time=GMT

A 1.5 gust factor is well within typical ranges, so that's not a red flag.

I know the WV showed a real dry patch develop on the leading edge of the wind. Figured that could be an area of enhanced wind.

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26 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

What in the hell is an in-house model anyways? Am I seriously to believe NBC has the processing power to run there own weather model or is it some algorithm of current models available? Generally curious. 

It's possible to run an in-house WRF on a computer for a small domain. More likely they just pay for some proprietary service that only they have.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's possible to run an in-house WRF on a computer for a small domain. More likely they just pay for some proprietary service that only they have.

Its either some version or the wrf or just some kind of model blend is my guess 

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

The Davis on Blue Hill had 78mph. Saw an 80mph in Truro and a 95mph at a home station on P-town.

Baro traces all over are wild at the bottom,  snake like. Usually only see that in hurricanes, undulations galore. From Judd Cooper in Coventry Ct

IMG_20200207_230813.jpg

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Just got power back after a 2-3 hour outage.  Damn white pines love to break and wreck havoc.  Luckily we are on the main line with the Mtn Road lodges and restaurants, so there's a rush to get it back.

It looks like the Pacific NW out the back door.   The birches are really bending too.

2L8A3553_edited-1-1.thumb.jpg.dd90c261644b1a0f2f82007f03d578d7.jpg

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1 hour ago, wx2fish said:

Its either some version or the wrf or just some kind of model blend is my guess 

From what I've I heard from Kevin is that it's a model that Noyes, and I'm assuming a team of people at NBC10 built themselves.

I'm just guessing that it is a model blend maybe given more weight to the Euro or something but I do see it a lot and it is pretty accurate

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8 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

A 1.5 gust factor is well within typical ranges, so that's not a red flag.

I know the WV showed a real dry patch develop on the leading edge of the wind. Figured that could be an area of enhanced wind.

Lots of 80s in there too so I suppose. Crazy.

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No internet since last night now. Checked out the back woods and it was a pine that snapped in half. Looks like a few of them came down from the storm. The snapped one looked fresh and healthy where it broke and was about 10-12” diameter. Some of the “newer” old growth out there are tall and lanky as they tried to compete with the massive trees out there. So throw an inch of qpf at them in zr, ip, and sn and it’s not a surprise we’re getting some snappers. 

Pack is 9-10”. 

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Just now, dendrite said:

No internet since last night now. Checked out the back woods and it was a pine that snapped in half. Looks like a few of them came down from the storm. The snapped one looked fresh and healthy where it broke and was about 10-12” diameter. Some of the “newer” old growth out there are tall and lanky as they tried to compete with the massive trees out there. So throw an inch of qpf at them in zr, ip, and sn and it’s not a surprise we’re getting some snappers. 

Pack is 9-10”. 

Center harbor inn webcam looks droopy. Was it the wind too?  Still a couple thousand in town without power. Glad I’m not one. 

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10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I was not too impressed with snow totals at the Maine and New Hampshire ski areas.  Vermont was the winner by a wide margin.  

For sure, Sugarloaf especially got skunked.

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22 minutes ago, Angus said:

For sure, Sugarloaf especially got skunked.

Think Sunday River had another 3 to 5 overnight giving them 8 to 10 with sleet too. Skiing should be pretty sweet

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43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Center harbor inn webcam looks droopy. Was it the wind too?  Still a couple thousand in town without power. Glad I’m not one. 

The one I heard drop was just before sunset when the wind began to ramp up. My anemometer froze up so I have no idea what we’ve been gusting. And yeah, deep winter out there this morning. 

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16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Think Sunday River had another 3 to 5 overnight giving them 8 to 10 with sleet too. Skiing should be pretty sweet

I move west to east looking at webcams, last evening around 9, I started at MRG, then Wildcat and finally Sugarloaf. It was pouring snow at MRG and Wildcat but couldn't see a flake at Sugarloaf. Found a webcam at Sunday River's base and it looked to be coming down pretty good there, too. My son drove up early this morning to ski either Attitash or Wildcat.

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18 minutes ago, Angus said:

I move west to east looking at webcams, last evening around 9, I started at MRG, then Wildcat and finally Sugarloaf. It was pouring snow at MRG and Wildcat but couldn't see a flake at Sugarloaf. Found a webcam at Sunday River's base and it looked to be coming down pretty good there, too. My son drove up early this morning to ski either Attitash or Wildcat.

Hopefully not Attitash, they were reporting only 2” new.  

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3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Hopefully not Attitash, they were reporting only 2” new.  

My brother and his gf ended up at attitash today. He said the conditions are very meh for Feb 8th... didn’t look like much new snow at all.

They are only reporting 42” on the entire season 

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50 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Think Sunday River had another 3 to 5 overnight giving them 8 to 10 with sleet too. Skiing should be pretty sweet

As you might expect, uneven distribution outside of VT.  Bretton Woods got 6-8” yet Cranmore and Attitash reporting 2-3”.  

Cannon reporting 7-8” but only 4” at Waterville. 

SR was 8-10 total Sugarloaf only 6”. 

N Conway area has been the snow hole of NNE this year. 

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5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

My brother and his gf ended up at attitash today. He said the conditions are very meh for Feb 8th... didn’t look like much new snow at all.

They are only reporting 42” on the entire season 

Dave has more in Hubbardston!  Lol

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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Dave has more in Hubbardston!  Lol

Lol... I saw that. I told him I would have went to Cranmore. They are staying at the eastern slope inn. Much closer and I think Cranmore prepares the mountain better, I hate attitash 

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1 hour ago, Angus said:

For sure, Sugarloaf especially got skunked.

Sleet came way inland in Maine, so not a lot of inches to brag up but some solid base under future flakes.
Storm sequence here was 2.5" from 0.24" LE on Thursday, 0.06" zr/dz overnight, 1.5" sleet thru 4 PM Friday (Prob. about 0.65" LE) then 1" SN 4-7 PM.  2-day totals: 5.0" and 1.09" LE, all but 0.06" frozen. Pack now 14" and solid.   Never had a gust over 20, so no power issues in the foothills.

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Conway always is sort of a snow hole. They do well overall, but shadowed quite a bit. I find you have more snow to the south near east side of Osippees near Madison etc. 

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