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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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On 2/20/2020 at 12:15 PM, Brian5671 said:

LR forecasting is difficult at best.   Look at the super strong PV this year plus the warm water north of Australia-both were late breaking events that helped cause us to be warm and snowless.   Good luck seeing something like that more than a month out....

I think the Australia situation was one where people weren't paying attention or connecting the dots in retrospect.  I don't think a lot of people, at least here in the states anyway, look that closely at Australia to see whether the rainy season advancement was delayed or not.  Once it was clear that was going to happen and solar radiation was going to be much higher than usual at a time when the IOD was collapsing, in retrospect that was a big flag that we should have seen coming.  Even as someone who had a mild winter forecasted, I wasn't nearly warm enough and I think it's because I was too slow to the draw on recognizing that piece and wave train alteration accordingly.

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The Meteorological Winter  will end somewhere between +3.91 and +4.07 degrees.

The folly of LR Forecasting exposed:     If a  Top Ten Warmest and Top Ten Least Snowiest Winter does not give itself away ahead of time , why would a 1 or 2  +/- SD winter do so?        As a long as we keep using a bogus 30 year normal, just say AN T's when asked.      It is like playing craps and substituting loaded dice when it is your turn.

At any rate, the GFS has 9 out of the first 11 days of March at a high of at least 50.         Hope my sea breeze gives me the 80's when the City is in the 90's since I stopped at 52 today.

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This has to be one the biggest PDO reversals from December to February. The record ridge north of Hawaii and strong +EPO resulted in the big SST departure shift. One of the strongest La Niña-like patterns without out an official La Niña. This is what can happen with record SST’s from the date line to the Indian Ocean.
 

0AF60D3B-8CF1-49E0-B3D8-AB0B1C73752E.png.25e4e457a3097d4dfbab25f8fcdbb1ac.png

339E0BC3-EA3E-43CE-971E-772A7C2DB62F.png.235b59ffa745515375cb8b6b3f9fa7a0.png

F0446D42-6754-4AEB-8577-6CD2CAB109FF.gif.cff7d24478517a1b1ad87029766eb9c0.gif

 

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Morning thoughts...

1. Another mild day is in store. At 10 am, temperatures  included: Allentown: 45°; Baltimore: 47°; Boston: 52°; Bridgeport: 44°; Danbury: 49°; Islip: 45°; New York City: 50°; Newark: 49°; Philadelphia: 45°; Poughkeepsie: 47°; Washington, DC: 46°; Westhampton: 49°; and, White Plains: 44°. Temperatures should top out well in the 50s, even in areas that saw a thick frost and minimum temperatures in the lower and middle 20s this morning.

2. The pattern remains hostile for moderate (4" or greater) or significant (6" or greater) snowstorms in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

3. January-February 2020 is on track to become 7th January-February case with a mean temperature of 39.0° or above in New York City and the 11th such case for Philadelphia. At Boston, 2020 is likely to surpass January-February 2002 as the warmest January-February period on record. Currently, Boston is on track for a two-month mean temperature of 37.5°-37.7°. The existing January-February record is 36.5°, which was established in January-February 2002.

4. The CFSv2 has continued its evolution toward a warmer March forecast in the East.

CFSv202242020.jpg

 

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6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

1. Another mild day is in store. At 10 am, temperatures  included: Allentown: 45°; Baltimore: 47°; Boston: 52°; Bridgeport: 44°; Danbury: 49°; Islip: 45°; New York City: 50°; Newark: 49°; Philadelphia: 45°; Poughkeepsie: 47°; Washington, DC: 46°; Westhampton: 49°; and, White Plains: 44°. Temperatures should top out well in the 50s, even in areas that saw a thick frost and minimum temperatures in the lower and middle 20s this morning.

2. The pattern remains hostile for moderate (4" or greater) or significant (6" or greater) snowstorms in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

3. January-February 2020 is on track to become 7th January-February case with a mean temperature of 39.0° or above in New York City and the 11th such case for Philadelphia. At Boston, 2020 is likely to surpass January-February 2002 as the warmest January-February period on record. Currently, Boston is on track for a two-month mean temperature of 37.5°-37.7°. The existing January-February record is 36.5°, which was established in January-February 2002.

4. The CFSv2 has continued its evolution toward a warmer March forecast in the East.

CFSv202242020.jpg

 

I think it is safe to call this 'winter' dead. The ecological world is waking back up in a big way from a restless slumber this year. This could actually reverse the trend of the past few years where we had a delayed leaf out to one that is almost epically early if the current trends keep up. 

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56 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I think it is safe to call this 'winter' dead. The ecological world is waking back up in a big way from a restless slumber this year. This could actually reverse the trend of the past few years where we had a delayed leaf out to one that is almost epically early if the current trends keep up. 

1989-90 had a very warm Jan/Feb/March-I remember lawns being cut in late March that year....this could be another spring like that one

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1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

I think it is safe to call this 'winter' dead. The ecological world is waking back up in a big way from a restless slumber this year. This could actually reverse the trend of the past few years where we had a delayed leaf out to one that is almost epically early if the current trends keep up. 

I put in 400 daffodil bulbs last fall and they are way up. I’m worried about the cool down zapping any potential blooms. I would think we see everything at least a month ahead this year over the last several 

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2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I put in 400 daffodil bulbs last fall and they are way up. I’m worried about the cool down zapping any potential blooms. I would think we see everything at least a month ahead this year over the last several 

I don't know about a month. March of 2012 was extremely warm and leafout was about 2 to 3 weeks early. 

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18 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I put in 400 daffodil bulbs last fall and they are way up. I’m worried about the cool down zapping any potential blooms. I would think we see everything at least a month ahead this year over the last several 

My plants started coming up more than a month ago. 

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22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I don't know about a month. March of 2012 was extremely warm and leafout was about 2 to 3 weeks early. 

2012 started out exceptionally dry as well though, likely slowing down leaf out. March 2012 only had 0.96 inch in the bucket at the end when normal is 4.36. February likewise 1.37 inches when 3.09 inches is normal.

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3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

2012 started out exceptionally dry as well though, likely slowing down leaf out. March 2012 only had 0.96 inch in the bucket at the end when normal is 4.36. February likewise 1.37 inches when 3.09 inches is normal.

The models only have us getting about an inch over the next 2 weeks

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39 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

One way on how not to have a winter 

8BA3B2E3-3399-4D69-AF9D-38F5EDCF01C0.gif

Like a broken record it skips back to 4/5/6.   However I think 5 is not as warm come March

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54 here, topped out at 59 before it started cooling off. Highest temp of the month.

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It was easily 65 in the woods in Danbury this afternoon, the parking lot in the shade at the bottom of the hill was 64 so on the hill in the sun it was probably closer to 70. Beautiful day for a mt bike ride :) 

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