bluewave Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 This winter is another example of our climate becoming more subtropical. Single digit snowfall is typical for North Carolina. Average temperatures near 40 degrees are normal for Richmond, VA. The average July temperature last summer near 80 degrees is also common for the Richmond, VA area. Same goes for the record number of 75 degree dew points last few summers at places like JFK. Such a high number of days are common for that region also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Snow showers and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Got just under 1" of rain last night. All fell between midnight and 3 am. Had quite a bit of thunder as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 2 hours ago, bluewave said: This winter is another example of our climate becoming more subtropical. Single digit snowfall is typical for North Carolina. Average temperatures near 40 degrees are normal for Richmond, VA. The average July temperature last summer near 80 degrees is also common for the Richmond, VA area. Same goes for the record number of 75 degree dew points last few summers at places like JFK. Such a high number of days are common for that region also. It's made central air conditioning somewhat essential around here as well. Houses built in the 50's-70's around here often did not have it b/c it was not needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 59 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: It's made central air conditioning somewhat essential around here as well. Houses built in the 50's-70's around here often did not have it b/c it was not needed. Especially hillside/hilltop and ridgeline homes where they were more likely to have a breeze. We would have to live in our basement a few weeks every year if we didn't have central ac, it stays at or below 70 down there almost all the time especially if I block the only south facing window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 11 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Especially hillside/hilltop and ridgeline homes where they were more likely to have a breeze. We would have to live in our basement a few weeks every year if we didn't have central ac, it stays at or below 70 down there almost all the time especially if I block the only south facing window. yeah our basement is always a nice 65 in the summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Nothing better than having the mountain to yourself. https://www.killington.com/the-mountain/webcams/mountain/pico-mountain-cam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 20 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Nothing better than having the mountain to yourself. https://www.killington.com/the-mountain/webcams/mountain/pico-mountain-cam No snow in I95 corridor-people just don't go-backyard snow effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Pretty amazing temperature jump last 5 winters above 1981-2010 averages. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Season Mean 40.5 35.2 39.7 38.4 2019-2020 38.3 39.1 40.8 39.4 2018-2019 40.1 32.5 36.2 36.3 2017-2018 35.0 31.7 42.0 36.2 2016-2017 38.3 38.0 41.6 39.3 2015-2016 50.8 34.5 37.7 41.0 1981-2010...37.5..32.6..35.3.....35.1 ....................+3.0..+2.6...+4.4.....+3.3 https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/nycnormals.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Pretty amazing temperature jump last 5 winters above 1981-2010 averages. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Season Mean 40.5 35.2 39.7 38.4 2019-2020 38.3 39.1 40.8 39.4 2018-2019 40.1 32.5 36.2 36.3 2017-2018 35.0 31.7 42.0 36.2 2016-2017 38.3 38.0 41.6 39.3 2015-2016 50.8 34.5 37.7 41.0 1981-2010...37.5..32.6..35.3.....35.1 ....................+3.0..+2.6...+4.4.....+3.3 https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/nycnormals.pdf I imagine at some point we see another cold winter to balance some of this out but who knows when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 54 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I imagine at some point we see another cold winter to balance some of this out but who knows when. We can’t even get a cold winter anymore without long duration extreme high latitude blocking. The cold 09-10 and 10-11 winters required the record -AO /-NAO blocking. Our cold 13-14 and 14-15 winters were all about the record -EPO/+PNA blocking. The default pattern in 11-12, 12-13, 15-16, 16-17, 17-18, 18-19, and 19-20 has been warm to record warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 the super nino pushed up the baseline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: We can’t even get a cold winter anymore without long duration extreme high latitude blocking. The cold 09-10 and 10-11 winters required the record -AO /-NAO blocking. Our cold 13-14 and 14-15 winters were all about the record -EPO/+PNA blocking. The default pattern in 11-12, 12-13, 15-16, 16-17, 17-18, 18-19, and 19-20 has been warm to record warm. some speculation that the solar minimum could help with blocking although it did nothing for us this year if there is indeed any connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 I need to move to the Tug Hill plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I need to move to the Tug Hill plateau. There's literally nothing there. A couple small towns, but wow it would be boring compared to NYC other than the big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 i was there for the feb 2007 event. miles and miles of nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: There's literally nothing there. A couple small towns, but wow it would be boring compared to NYC other than the big snows. An undeniable reality point Brian but just maybe where Anthony is concerned the final words from a great Porgy and Bess song should hold sway; “Cause the things that I prize like the stars in the sky are all free. Say I’ve got plenty of nothing and nothing is plenty for me. Got my girl, got my song got my ... ( Snow ) As always ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 54 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I need to move to the Tug Hill plateau. If you’re okay with being a complete hermit, fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Move to Mt Rainier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Snow was falling this evening and the landscape was coated in a thick and thickening blanket of white. A blustery wind added to the chill. That's if one were in the lake effect areas off Lakes Erie and Ontario and parts of northern New England. Through 6 pm, more than 6.0" snow had fallen in Caribou, surpassing the daily record of 6.0" set in 2008. In addition, Caribou had surpassed 100" seasonal snowfall for the 4th consecutive winter. Back in the Middle Atlantic region, snowfall has been difficult to come by. The clock is now winding down on a February that has been defined by warmth and an near total absence of snowfall. Monthly snowfall totals through today include: Allentown: Trace; Baltimore: None; Bridgeport: Trace; Harrisburg: Trace; Islip: None; New York City-Central Park: Trace; New York City-JFK: None; New York City-LGA: None; Newark: Trace; Philadelphia: None; Washington, DC: Trace. Colder air has now returned to the region. However, as has been the case throughout January and February, this latest round of cold will likely be short-lived. Much milder air will move into the region early next week. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around February 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +15.90 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.969. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 6, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely diminish during the first week of March. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February. On February 26, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.379 (RMM). The February 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.734. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied near 100% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 40.1° tying February 2020 with February 1954 as the 7th warmest February on record. Since 1869, New York City has had nine prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above in February. Seven (78%) of those cases occurred in 1990 or later and four (44%) occurred in 2000 or later. Three (33%) occurred in 2010 or later. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Probably going to approach 70 degrees at least once next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Woke up to find it briefly snowing with a dusting on all surfaces, including the road. 2:30 am. Temp is 25 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 The last 2 days of February are averaging 35degs., or 3degs. BN. Month to date is +5.6[40.7]. February should end at +5.0[40.3]. The first 15 days of March are averaging (06Z,GFS) 42degs.[35/49], or about 2degs. AN. Output is snow less. Last measurable snow was Jan. 18. 30* here at 6am. 32* by 8:30am. 34* by 10:30am. 38* by 1pm. Topped out at 42* at 4:30pm. 38* by 9pm. 36* by 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 First two years in a row since the 1990’s without at least a NESIS cat 1 snowstorm. The article notes the last two years as 1997-1998 and 1998-1999. But some may have considered the March 1999 heavy wet snow event as a NESIS 1. So we would have to go back to the early 1990’s. A very extreme benchmark storm track shut down after March 2018. All our storm tracks have been cutter, hugger, and southern stream suppression since then. Winter Storm Tracks 2019-20 The arrows represent the tracks of significant winter storms so far this season. The shaded areas are estimates of total snowfall this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 31 minutes ago, bluewave said: First two years in a row since the 1990’s without at least a NESIS cat 1 snowstorm. The article notes the last two years as 1997-1998 and 1998-1999. But some may have considered the March 1999 heavy wet snow event as a NESIS 1. So we would have to go back to the early 1990’s. A very extreme benchmark storm track shut down after March 2018. All our storm tracks have been cutter, hugger, and southern stream suppression since then. Winter Storm Tracks 2019-20 The arrows represent the tracks of significant winter storms so far this season. The shaded areas are estimates of total snowfall this season. When we have a awful pacific with zero blocking odds favor a poor storm track. Hopefully next winter we improve the pac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: When we have a awful pacific with zero blocking odds favor a poor storm track. Hopefully next winter we improve the pac. Our area sucks for snow. We all need to move to a snowiest climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: The last 2 days of February are averaging 35degs., or 3degs. BN. Month to date is +5.6[40.7]. February should end at +5.0[40.3]. The first 15 days of March are averaging (06Z,GFS) 42degs.[35/49], or about 2degs. AN. Output is snow less. 30* here at 6am. only +2? That's a freezer for this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Wow got all the way down to 23° this morning, only three degrees above the normal low for the date of 20°. What a pitiful excuse for a winter. Keep rooting for those sustained 70's in March warmists, I don't see any problems with that, perfectly normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: only +2? That's a freezer for this year. It’s better than being BN in March...+2 by mid March is 50s already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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