weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just go back and look. For all the bashing they get, I challenge anyone else to step up and be better. Look at this year. In November they had equal chances in the Mid west and nrn Plains with a warm west and east coast. Most vendors had a very cold forecast where the HDDs matter. The CPC forecast will fail in the west, but they probably overall will be better than most. The point of this discussion is to show the voodoo indices we all look at don't always work. More recently, I feel like the skill in our typical indices we use for seasonal forecast just don't work as well for whatever reason. I see many LR vendors pound their chest, only to have the traders bail on their winter forecast. This is a significant part of it. Alot of the correlations made and understanding of how each phases influences what type of pattern...it's all really derived from understanding of how those indices influence the pattern when their signal is strong...so when they are either highly positive or highly negative. When there are certain indices that are overly strong and dominant...LR becomes much easier...however, when signals are weak the correlations to the pattern decrease significantly. A huge example is the NAO...we think of the NAO (or AO) has a major driver to cold here in the Northeast...and that's true...but when the signal is strong and dominant. When the NAO signal is weak...a negative NAO can still be associated with warmer temperatures in the Northeast. It's not as simple as -NAO/+PNA = cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 100% second this. Some out there are way too attached to their thoughts and become overly aggressive when disputed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: This is a significant part of it. Alot of the correlations made and understanding of how each phases influences what type of pattern...it's all really derived from understanding of how those indices influence the pattern when their signal is strong...so when they are either highly positive or highly negative. When there are certain indices that are overly strong and dominant...LR becomes much easier...however, when signals are weak the correlations to the pattern decrease significantly. A huge example is the NAO...we think of the NAO (or AO) has a major driver to cold here in the Northeast...and that's true...but when the signal is strong and dominant. When the NAO signal is weak...a negative NAO can still be associated with warmer temperatures in the Northeast. It's not as simple as -NAO/+PNA = cold. But that does mean cold...lol. I was thinking more from an ENSO or ocean point of view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Anyways back to weather. Please please let next week work out somehow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I pretty much take the dartboard approach too...I have followed LR forecasts for a long time, and I love reading them and appreciate the innovation that has occurred in them.....but we still have a LONG ways to go. I like reading then too, But you have supercomputers that can't even figure out the mid range and short range forecast so it is the dart board approach, I suppose some aspects, They can get it right but no way were at the point where someone nails a seasonal forecast overall, Just to many variables that go into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 48 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: After Scott's response it occurred to me that perhaps this index doesn't have the value it once did when it was created? Though I thought it was created after the ONI? but all these measures of ENSO...just may not be applicable anymore...at least enough to compare periods. The new climo period is when...next year? It is going to be extremely intriguing to see how numbers and average change...and by how much. I suspect we may see some drastic changes which should and hopefully raise major eyebrows. This, in spades. Exchanging the cool and snowless 1980s for the milder and much snowier 2010's will probably result in the greatest decadal adjustment of 30-year norms since such records have been kept, at least for the Northeast. Edit: NYC averaged 20.7"/yr for the 1980s and 36.6" for the 2010s, an increase of 77%. Those 2 decades are lowest and highest in the Central Park records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Next week has the best chance of seeing winter weather especially up here then having to rely on a coastal that either cuts or whiffs just being close to the cold air source and having the boundary near by for over running precip to ride along in these SWFE's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 GFS coming in flatter....initial western ejection of energy is more sheared out....in favor of Tip's idea that models may want to hedge that way. It is still trying to eject the final southwest piece in a pretty robust fashion though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Next week is going to be close. Need that press to be real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: All good points... But there is such a little sample size when it comes to climate. Climate has been changing for thousands of years..Tens of thousands. We've been keeping records for just over a hundred lol. It's so hard to say what the deal is...except that climate is always changing over time. We do know that climate is always changing, but a very varying rates. We do, through ice samples have good data about how the climate evolved over millenia. And we know quite conclusively, that man's activities are warming the planet rapidly due to the levels of carbon released in the atmosphere. There's no controversary in what I've just said, unless you believe the President or same fringe scientists. But we don't have data that we could use for weather forecasting/modelling for sure. What we don't know is exactly how that will affect real weather that you and I are interested in. We don't know how it is affecting modelling. In that way, Scott's point is a good one, and one that I hope scientist and mets start to look at closely... I wonder if there is enough data yet to say that the modeling is really being affected? It could be that the improvement in computing power is temporarily offsetting the loss of an ability for models to predict based on past behavior over the last 100 years. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 One thing to watch too is the HP north of ME. That could play a significant factor in the height field across New England. This could at least really benefit NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Not only is it flatter, but it's got the Drag cold tuck too from a meso low on the front. This is for the second more robust system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: second this. Some out there are way too attached to their thoughts and become overly aggressive when disputed. Yeah they are obnoxious when challenged... but then when an arctic outbreak happens in early February that same person will be like “Yes see, I missed the arctic outbreak and huge snowstorm by a week or two, but back in October I called for a huge disruptive February snowstorm followed by an arctic outbreak!” I feel like I could randomly make things up in 3-week blocks throughout the winter and be right some of the time and then pound chest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not only is it flatter, but it's got the Drag cold tuck too from a meso low on the front. This is for the second more robust system. Yeah take the under on the sfc temps if that verified....that would just lock in the sfc. But this is literally gonna change every run or two though at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 There’s DIT’s ice. I’m sure the late week threat will be a lovely 37F rain here. Either snow or warm sector. My preference, not that it makes a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 25 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah they are obnoxious when challenged... but then when an arctic outbreak happens in early February that same person will be like “Yes see, I missed the arctic outbreak and huge snowstorm by a week or two, but back in October I called for a huge disruptive February snowstorm followed by an arctic outbreak!” I feel like I could randomly make things up in 3-week blocks throughout the winter and be right some of the time and then pound chest. I've argued the same. "I feel like early January will have a storm on the East Coast..." No shit Sherlock. Unheard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Oh baby, that is a nice overrunning deal. At day 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 33 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: We do know that climate is always changing, but a very varying rates. We do, through ice samples have good data about how the climate evolved over millenia. And we know quite conclusively, that man's activities are warming the planet rapidly due to the levels of carbon released in the atmosphere. There's no controversary in what I've just said, unless you believe the President or same fringe scientists. But we don't have data that we could use for weather forecasting/modelling for sure. What we don't know is exactly how that will affect real weather that you and I are interested in. We don't know how it is affecting modelling. In that way, Scott's point is a good one, and one that I hope scientist and mets start to look at closely... I wonder if there is enough data yet to say that the modeling is really being affected? It could be that the improvement in computing power is temporarily offsetting the loss of an ability for models to predict based on past behavior over the last 100 years. Who knows. I don't agree with you on some of what you said...but we can agree to disagree my friend, it's all good. So enough of the climate talk, and on to our weather... So lets just hope that Feb can give us some love/snow to salvage the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 It is a shame that we cant get any cold air because this pattern is really active and we would have benefited from it. Everything is going wrong this winter. Hopefully the pattern let's use as we head into mid to Late February but they aren't any signs of that happening. Another thing is that all the tellies arent going to be favorable except for the epo but that still doesn't mean anything for the east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: I think overall long-range forecasts are decent...heck even good. There are some out there who are phenomenal and just have an understanding of the atmosphere like nobody else (Anthony Maisello for example). but part of the issue I think is some try to incorporate too much detail into seasonal outlooks...one of them being forecast snowfall totals. I think this not only vastly reduces accuracy of some seasonal outlooks but sort of takes away from the outlook itself and the work that goes into it. Forecasting snowfall...and precipitation for that matter is exceptionally difficult in the long-range. You can perhaps wager possibilities given what you expect the pattern to be but there is no guarantees the patterns produce. IMO, precipitation is more correlated to "blips" in the pattern than the actual pattern itself. Another one is temperatures...some try to use a range...like Feb will be +2 to +4. I think it would be better to just be as simple as below-average, around average, or above-average...and then spicing that up however. I've done relatively well forecasting snowfall. There is an element of luck to anything...you can't live your life on a spreadsheet. While snowfall definitely has more variance than H5 patterns and the resultsant temperature departures...at the end of the day, its my passion for winter that drives these efforts. Snow is at the heart of many weather enthusiasts' passion. This is why I don't vomit out a composite map with some attendant temp departures and walk. Predicting snowfall is the fun part and keeps me engaged. While no one will nail snowfall every season, good forecasters will predict snowfall more accurately than the ones that blow. Take that to the bank. I don't get the idea that predicting snowfall is not a worthwhile endeavor. Its akin to a slugger not bothering to swing the bat because of some ludicrous aversion to the BABIP gods. No..they take batting practice. Forecasting snowfall is hard and will often humble even the highest quality and most exhaustive of efforts. Here is an idea.....research more and get better- 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I don't agree with you on some of what you said...but we can agree to disagree my friend, it's all good. So enough of the climate talk, and on to our weather... So lets just hope that Feb can give us some love/snow to salvage the season. Well I'm not sure what I've said that is arguable. Feel free to PM me, I'm a nice guy as you are too (except when DIT succeeds in trigerring you lol ). But, this is about weather. We are on a board talking about the weather pattern for the next month. Some are speculating that the warming climate, which ice samples tell us is unprecedented in the last 800,000 years, is making it harder to understand how to use weather model data...that the baseline isn't as applicable any more give the warming of oceans and over land masses. That is fair game in this thread. This chart is enough to make us have this conversation: https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It is a shame that we cant get any cold air because this pattern is really active and we would have benefited from it. Everything is going wrong this winter. Hopefully the pattern let's use as we head into mid to Late February but they aren't any signs of that happening. Another thing is that all the tellies arent going to be favorable except for the epo but that still doesn't mean anything for the east. This is what happens when you pull a KU in a super nino. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It is a shame that we cant get any cold air because this pattern is really active and we would have benefited from it. Everything is going wrong this winter. Hopefully the pattern let's use as we head into mid to Late February but they aren't any signs of that happening. Another thing is that all the tellies arent going to be favorable except for the epo but that still doesn't mean anything for the east side of NYC. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Look at these dates. That 89 90 hemispheric pattern analog from mid Nov looks so true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It is a shame that we cant get any cold air because this pattern is really active and we would have benefited from it. Everything is going wrong this winter. Hopefully the pattern let's use as we head into mid to Late February but they aren't any signs of that happening. Another thing is that all the tellies arent going to be favorable except for the epo but that still doesn't mean anything for the east. It wouldn't have helped with tomorrow's POS Ant, it's missing us so the cold air doesn't matter this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS coming in flatter....initial western ejection of energy is more sheared out....in favor of Tip's idea that models may want to hedge that way. It is still trying to eject the final southwest piece in a pretty robust fashion though. well... yeah, in fairness no love loss or embarrassment on that if I'm wrong...it's just that it seemed(s) unusual to have the Euro's wave length so stretched, yet have the wave so robust ... to mention, with height compressed and lead flow already zipping along in the S/SE doesn't lend to wave integrity holding its shape and form so well, either. But, hell - anomalies relative to anomalies nested inside conundrums wrapped in enigmatic oddities happen from time to time in this vercokta business too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 This upcoming pattern looks good for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 There is absorption of that trough ejection though... I just clicked through... At around 120 hours as the trough approaches west TX or thereabouts, the southern tip is robuster than it is at 144 .. 168, when by this latter time and space it is over the TV as a positive sloped wind max - that morphology is the height compression's destructive interference. It becomes a matter of force balancing really - whether this thing has enough maintain that cohesive entity or lose more in absorption. This rendition is enough to keep the fan-fair happy though, either way. And there's no way those p-type layouts work out that way and the typical GFS BL dipshit handling is pretty clearly going on there. Th'at's just a straight up ice sagger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Scott's motif of loaded up overrunning potentials is repeating in this run. Probably some split flow latency in the flow ...if not coherently identifiable, maybe by behavior it is evidenced. Those blue air masses with arms stretching periodically through Ontario, while squirting pancaked waves through the OV and overrunning is quite concomitant with either -EPO or quasi EPO cold loading and the flow meandering underneath from the SW. It's almost like a 10 days overrunning story with a couple/few breaks separating chapters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 how does thursday look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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