Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 I have an idea: let's start a 'real' February thread, seeing as we are technically not even in February .. yet we're on the heavier side of a 100 pages - hahahaha. And, I'll throw myself under the bus and fire-off thread re next week's potentials ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I've done relatively well forecasting snowfall. There is an element of luck to anything...you can't live your life on a spreadsheet. While snowfall definitely has more variance than H5 patterns and the resultsant temperature departures...at the end of the day, its my passion for winter that drives these efforts. Snow is at the heart of many weather enthusiasts' passion. This is why I don't vomit out a composite map with some attendant temp departures and walk. Predicting snowfall is the fun part and keeps me engaged. While no one will nail snowfall every season, good forecasters will predict snowfall more accurately than the ones that blow. Take that to the bank. I don't get the idea that predicting snowfall is not a worthwhile endeavor. Its akin to a slugger not bothering to swing the bat because of some ludicrous aversion to the BABIP gods. No..they take batting practice. Forecasting snowfall is hard and will often humble even the highest quality and most exhaustive of efforts. Here is an idea.....research more and get better- I don't think there is anything wrong with it at all...hell...I would probably do the same with tornadoes if I did summer outlooks...but I know that's not really a great measure b/c you don't know how any specific event will pan out. My point is there are so many factors which influence snowfall (or tornadoes)...which can't really be predicted off any indicator. It takes just one storm which can completely put at risk a season forecast. Say you go with something like 30-40'' of snow...but one storm drops 18''...nearly half your forecast just fell in one storm. Or you forecast like 500-700 tornadoes for the spring/summer but there is a massive outbreak in early April that spans 300 tornadoes. I wasn't saying it isn't a worthwhile endeavor...its there is way more (especially short-term and mesoscale aspects) which are involved in these outcomes than a projected pattern itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Scott's motif of loaded up overrunning potentials is repeating in this run. Probably some split flow latency in the flow ...if not coherently identifiable, maybe by behavior it is evidenced. Those blue air masses with arms stretching periodically through Ontario, while squirting pancaked waves through the OV and overrunning is quite concomitant with either -EPO or quasi EPO cold loading and the flow meandering underneath from the SW. It's almost like a 10 days overrunning story with a couple/few breaks separating chapters. I don't know why, but I enjoy overrunning. LOL. Maybe because they can be sneaky good events, maybe because they pose a fun challenge, or maybe because the cold press is sometimes under-modeled. So I look forward to it. Of course if it's a cold rain that would not be so enjoyable, but I do find overrunning events rather fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 The GFS will change every 6 hrs post day 3, really no use in over analysis on a model that can not get 5H correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't know why, but I enjoy overrunning. LOL. Maybe because they can be sneaky good events, maybe because they pose a fun challenge, or maybe because the cold press is sometimes under-modeled. So I look forward to it. Of course if it's a cold rain that would not be so enjoyable, but I do find overrunning events rather fun. Risking a nostalgia thread hijacking .. know what I miss? I used to love how in icing events - even though I loathe it if the power cuts ... - how you walk out side in that gray timbre'd light, and the smell of it. It does .. it really does have a kind of smell. I don't know if it's just distant soupcons of wood smoke mixed some how with cold dp insert air ...something, but it's a fun vibe. Then of course the powers out ten minutes later and I hate everyone - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 10 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: how does thursday look? Icestorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Icestorm Enjoy the snow Sat night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Enjoy the snow Sat night that's just mean spirited lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I don't think there is anything wrong with it at all...hell...I would probably do the same with tornadoes if I did summer outlooks...but I know that's not really a great measure b/c you don't know how any specific event will pan out. My point is there are so many factors which influence snowfall (or tornadoes)...which can't really be predicted off any indicator. It takes just one storm which can completely put at risk a season forecast. Say you go with something like 30-40'' of snow...but one storm drops 18''...nearly half your forecast just fell in one storm. Or you forecast like 500-700 tornadoes for the spring/summer but there is a massive outbreak in early April that spans 300 tornadoes. I wasn't saying it isn't a worthwhile endeavor...its there is way more (especially short-term and mesoscale aspects) which are involved in these outcomes than a projected pattern itself. They can be predicted to a degree..its the forecaster's job to diagnose which seasons will have the propensity to produce anomalously large events. Are there some seasons that are more predictable than others? Sure.. We had a huge mid atl blizzard during that record 2015-2016 el Nino that caused everyone to abandon the idea of much sensible winter appeal at all. I called for it just about as explicitly as possible and it occured during the two week stretch that I had identified...it was an oasis of winter in a sea of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: They can be predicted to a degree..its the forecaster's job to diagnose which seasons will have the propensity to produce anomalously large events. Are there some seasons that are more predictable than others? Sure.. We had a huge mid atl blizzard during that record 2015-2016 el Nino that caused everyone to abandon the idea of much sensible winter appeal at all. I called for it just about as explicitly as possible and it occured during the two week stretch that I had identified...it was an oasis of winter in a sea of warmth. Heh, maybe we can get another one of those huge blizzards this year...for SNE that puts a much better taste in everyones mouth than our current sour taste that we are suffering through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 7 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: that's just mean spirited lol Cept I mean it 1 to 2 is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Cept I mean it 1 to 2 is possible Where's the inch you promised me on Monday with the ULL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, WinterWolf said: Heh, maybe we can get another one of those huge blizzards this year...for SNE that puts a much better taste in everyones mouth than our current sour taste that we are suffering through. I don't feel like we are going to get something of that caliber...that was a juiced STJ. But I think we can pull another big coastal snow event in a few weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: Where's the inch you promised me on Monday with the ULL? I don't believe we mentioned chicken coops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I don't believe we mentioned chicken coops. Did anyone see accums? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Did anyone see accums? Nah just some isolated squalls, too bad too as the day I posted that there was some good lift. Obviously the ULL orientation changed overnight in modeling so the vorticity max sig disappeared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Did anyone see accums? New Euro has an inch or so with that PVA Sat night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Euro coming in significantly colder/flatter for midweek. Guidance definitely having trouble with that boundary placement right now...which isn't a big surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro coming in significantly colder/flatter for midweek. Guidance definitely having trouble with that boundary placement right now...which isn't a big surprise. plowable snow on the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 49 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Enjoy the snow Sat night Won’t be seeing anything here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: plowable snow on the EURO. Congrats Freak north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Congrats Freak north If you want big amounts yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, Bostonseminole said: If you want big amounts yes Any. We’ll be in 40’s/ 50’s Monday and Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Definitely had ice potential somewhere. Second storm looks messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: They can be predicted to a degree..its the forecaster's job to diagnose which seasons will have the propensity to produce anomalously large events. Are there some seasons that are more predictable than others? Sure.. We had a huge mid atl blizzard during that record 2015-2016 el Nino that caused everyone to abandon the idea of much sensible winter appeal at all. I called for it just about as explicitly as possible and it occured during the two week stretch that I had identified...it was an oasis of winter in a sea of warmth. This reminds me...remember that whole ridiculous idea the a KU storm couldn't occur during a La Nina (think it was La Nina)...and then it finally happened I remember we had a few discussions about this either at a conference or a g2g Anyways though...I don't disagree with you at all...plus it's all about presentation and backing up your analysis...which you do just about as good as anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Won’t be seeing anything here 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Won’t be seeing anything here 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Congrats Freak north 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Any. We’ll be in 40’s/ 50’s Monday and Tuesday Debra Downie 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Definitely had ice potential somewhere. Second storm looks messy. Yeah. That run had a few inches of snow, then ice, then rain, then maybe back to snow at end of wave 2. Good luck at guidance figuring that mess out. Today has seen a definite shift south of the boundary on guidance compared to last night. Not counting on anything being consistent though. Wouldn’t be surprised if it goes north 100 miles next run. That type of look. I still like 2nd week of Feb too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 I wonder if this is the type of storm that can really change the pattern...how this storm evolves as it moves northeast looks like it could really buckle things and we can get pretty chilly behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah. That run had a few inches of snow, then ice, then rain, then maybe back to snow at end of wave 2. Good luck at guidance figuring that mess out. Today has seen a definite shift south of the boundary on guidance compared to last night. Not counting on anything being consistent though. Wouldn’t be surprised if it goes north 100 miles next run. That type of look. I still like 2nd week of Feb too. I talked to Wilton last night. He told me he’s working on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah. That run had a few inches of snow, then ice, then rain, then maybe back to snow at end of wave 2. Good luck at guidance figuring that mess out. Today has seen a definite shift south of the boundary on guidance compared to last night. Not counting on anything being consistent though. Wouldn’t be surprised if it goes north 100 miles next run. That type of look. I still like 2nd week of Feb too. Whole lot of qpf. This could get fun with any press Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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