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DotRat_Wx

Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion

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Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

 

I do not believe in the off model runs. *hides* 

We will welcome you with open arms when you are ready to leave 2005 behind.

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That is critical... really, that's the weight on the dice as far as how things parlay and come together ...or don't.  

I mentioned earlier, the speed of the flow makes the standard model of ridge pop lending to constructive feed-back downstream and amplitude into the TV ~ longitudes.  The fastness, it's ablating the ridge's Nward extend post the polar stream trough ejection across sw Canda, and that 'transitively' then lends to less wave space feedback potential - it's really how the speed interferes as a destructive -  that said, if large scale forcing just get stronger, the ridge will grow, and then we get that feedback regardless.  

I was just looking at the NAM's la-la range ( ...pretty much anything beyond 10 minutes  out in time for other reasons...), and it really has an unavoidable bomb on the eastern seaboard set up.  That systme approaching the western TV Valley is doing so over a lower latitude relaxed region, where the heights are compressible, such that it won't be absorbed by said velocity/shearing effects... That makes the set up prone to subsume phasing... even if only partial, that would kick back positively and cause that extrapolation to go nuts.  The subsumer? Look over lower Manitoba at 84 hours, and you have two wind flags of 100 kts over a ridge arc, moving at theta across the isohypses of there. That's code for one mother-fer of a powerful polar stream S/W that's partially concealed only by the fact that it is in that position and is thus less identifiable. But when that wind max comes careen down the Minnesota slide, you'll see that dive into the - by then - eastern TV vestigial wave and ...well...that's the mating dance. 

Unfortunately...just as concealed by this lofty prose is the fact that we are still talking about the NAM - so... it's 84 hour depiction is probably used toilet paper in the first placed

What is pretty certain by this point (with further strengthening from ensemble support) is this is going to be a pretty intense system. But agreed...the NAM (even though we're taking 84-hours) is a rather potent look. Much more compact and intense with the vorticity whereas the GFS is more hung back and not nearly as defined with the trough. I was also look at that jet streak over the ridge arc...that is certainly going to be a factor. 

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Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

To my amateur eyes, ridging looks worse through 84 hours.. so I'm not confident it's going to be a good solution. 

Everything is more progressive...the whole longwave pattern is a bit east.

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1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

GFS further SE at 12z....6z trend continues at 12z it seems

Still close to watch

The energy  associated with this storm is not even in the US.

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11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What is pretty certain by this point (with further strengthening from ensemble support) is this is going to be a pretty intense system. But agreed...the NAM (even though we're taking 84-hours) is a rather potent look. Much more compact and intense with the vorticity whereas the GFS is more hung back and not nearly as defined with the trough. I was also look at that jet streak over the ridge arc...that is certainly going to be a factor. 

Not to be confusing... 

I actually don't know if that's the case.  I've been intimating for days that this could if perhaps 'should' be middling.  

Problem is storm interpretation ( potentially ..) Namely, if it does gulp in huge PWAT air down south...that could 'over-achieve' as it were relative to cyclone kinematics.  But it won't necessarily be "intense" as a system.  

Again, the NAM's solution would offer an intense result by extrapolation/combing theoretics and so forth.. But, the larger system concerns are still there when thinking out side the NAM's illusory bubble.  The flow speeding up over all doesn't lend to the NAM exquisite timing... and the physical plausibility of some of these recent runs, where the cyclone has in fact trended less polished ..fits that.  So mmm, I could see it still being a middling low with a big QPF plume type deal.  Miller-A's have there bag of headaches. 

The 12z GFS too -

This might be the most glaring red-herring system we've channeled hopes and dreams over yet this season.  We're not considering the canvased limitations of fast flow and not expecting to have to correct these juggernaut late mid range systems nearly enough.  

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well that's an ass suck solution. Lets see what else can suck ass.

Lets do a repeat of Jan 7-8

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come on, this is going to be our usual fast flow shortwave abundant disaster.  Congrats Nick.  Nobody to the west of Eastport should be excited unless something shows up overnight Wednesday.

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Didn’t mind it being OTS a few days ago, especially since it was starting to trend west. But now we are trending East again inside 100 hours? Yikes.  
 

Maybe the fantasy blizzard on the 6z GFS that absolutely won’t happen will still be there at least.  Fun to look at. 

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Too many turds in the punch bowl....leaving a lot of that SW US "energy" behind and the northern stream just isn't digging like it was in previous days. Looks pretty progressive with everything flying east as that EPAC jet starts to surge into western NAMER.

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So the way things are going, we are setting up a 1-2 weeks worth of winter before we go back to what we had from December 17ish until now? Yikes...

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Everything is more progressive...the whole longwave pattern is a bit east.

Ray is happy 

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Ray is happy 

Everyone should be happy its east instead of a cutter. Easier to trend west.

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to be confusing... 

I actually don't know if that's the case.  I've been intimating for days that this could if perhaps 'should' be middling.  

Problem is storm interpretation ( potentially ..) Namely, if it does gulp in huge PWAT air down south...that could 'over-achieve' as it were relative to cyclone kinematics.  But it won't necessarily be "intense" as a system.  

Again, the NAM's solution would offer an intense result by extrapolation/combing theoretics and so forth.. But, the larger system concerns are still there when thinking out side the NAM's illusory bubble.  The flow speeding up over all doesn't lend to the NAM exquisite timing... and the physical plausibility of some of these recent runs, where the cyclone has in fact trended less polished ..fits that.  So mmm, I could see it still being a middling low with a big QPF plume type deal.  Miller-A's have there bag of headaches. 

The 12z GFS too -

This might be the most glaring red-herring system we've channeled hopes and dreams over yet this season.  We're not considering the canvased limitations of fast flow and not expecting to have to correct these juggernaut late mid range systems nearly enough.  

That's an excellent point. 

Combine a fast flow with numerous pieces and it's nothing but chaotic hell with solutions which range from OTS to roof crushing snows. 

But to your initial point...I get what you're saying...and actually given the fast flow and room for phasing not to happen...well an intense system is not as certain. 

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well that's an ass suck solution. Lets see what else can suck ass.

laugh out loud literally ..

 

This is how you grouse people - 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yep.

That hasn't been in the cards for quite a few cycles.  Hazey kind of winter on the GFS. Last minute save hopefully.  We will know Wednesday 

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6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Too many turds in the punch bowl....leaving a lot of that SW US "energy" behind and the northern stream just isn't digging like it was in previous days. Looks pretty progressive with everything flying east as that EPAC jet starts to surge into western NAMER.

exactly, and that has been obvious for days.  these situations rarely turn out well despite some model porn.  that being said there's probably a 10-20% chance for a lucky timing thing but I doubt it.  Looking forward to it getting colder next week, getting some confluence and blocking above, even if not perfect, and it will snow.  But this weekend is sht for most except the maritimes as the basic seasonal pattern continues and winter won't quite set in.

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