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wdrag

Wet snowstorm potential Jan 25-26, mainly high terrain northwest of NYC

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4 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

The center placement is bad regardless but you can see some Valley`s and Peaks here represented nicely here.

Long duration event at the ski resorts as they upslope.

 

That`s a nice interior snowstorm. 

 

25AB27AC-711F-43DA-B683-EEBF2C6A5D1F.png

 

The following storm may be a little better for coastal peeps like myself.

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7 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

12Z UKMET has temps approaching 50 in the city as the triple point passes through Saturday evening. Snow is restricted to the very highest elevations well outside this forum. 

Similar to the cmc. Snow is restricted to NNE.

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23 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Similar to the cmc. Snow is restricted to NNE.

Not a great sign of the GFS is the only model showing the colder solution. However the GFS did the best overall with the most recent storm, the other models had the primary too strong and only had brief snow to rain a week out.

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5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Not a great sign of the GFS is the only model showing the colder solution. However the GFS did the best overall with the most recent storm, the other models had the primary too strong and only had brief snow to rain a week out.

That’s incorrect. The gfs way to snowy and wet for the area. The nam did the best on thermals.

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20 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That’s incorrect. The gfs way to snowy and wet for the area. The nam did the best on thermals.

It was too wet that's true but it did better with temps. (I'm talking in terms of what it was predicting this far out)

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1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

12Z Euro is fairly close to the UKMET. They both suggest more of a wind/coastal flooding issue around here than anything.

image.thumb.png.cbe3e23ae85ef49057401be382eecaa5.png

Yeah I buy the coastal flooding risks.

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43 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Eps is much better to a snowstorm. Low right off the coast off Maryland parked south of long island

4FFB5E19-2DB3-4375-B27F-F9C12D4294BA.png

CFCB8AF4-0CEB-4ED0-98AD-DAFDF50DF250.png

EPS is a nothing burger. Takes the SLP into PHL. Coastal plan gets inundated with wind and high surf. 

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47 minutes ago, Enigma said:

EPS is a nothing burger. Takes the SLP into PHL. Coastal plan gets inundated with wind and high surf. 

I was just showing that the eps has a favorable track. If this takes a benchmark track and it’s a bit stronger than some of the models are showing it will snow down to the coast. 

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32 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I was just showing that the eps has a favorable track. If this takes a benchmark track and it’s a bit stronger than some of the models are showing it will snow down to the coast. 

 

EPS is not a benchmark track. SLP heads from DC,to PHL to NYC. Tidbits image grossly misrepresents reality.

 

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18 ZGFS has significant snow accumulation all the was down into North Central NJ - north of the Raritan River - still 5 days away - plenty of time for even more changes good or bad

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

18 ZGFS has significant snow accumulation all the was down into North Central NJ - north of the Raritan River - still 5 days away - plenty of time for even more changes good or bad

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

North of the Raritan is not CNJ though. Jackson is about where CNJ is. I learned this when I taught there and called it SNJ, I was corrected. 

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3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

North of the Raritan is not CNJ though. Jackson is about where CNJ is. I learned this when I taught there and called it SNJ, I was corrected. 

Lol, the infamous "Central NJ" debate 

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Definitely a threat to watch, but definitely a thread the needle event also. As of now to reach anything significant you would have to go 50-75 miles nw of the city to be noteworthy.  Still several days away to iron that out.

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1 hour ago, Enigma said:

 

EPS is not a benchmark track. SLP heads from DC,to PHL to NYC. Tidbits image grossly misrepresents reality.

 

Thanks for the explanation. That image confused me with the L off the coast. 

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1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said:

Definitely a threat to watch, but definitely a thread the needle event also. As of now to reach anything significant you would have to go 50-75 miles nw of the city to be noteworthy.  Still several days away to iron that out.

IF we were to snow along I-95, we'd be relying entirely on rapid SLP intensification coupled with very heavy precip. Could be elevation driven. This reminds me of April  Fools storm 1997.

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41 minutes ago, Rjay said:

State College is around 10" for the season.

DC is under .5

Philly is also under .5

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3 hours ago, Rjay said:

State College is around 10" for the season.

Yep. It really hasn’t been a good season for anyone so far in the NE except for some hard hit by the early Dec storm and Maine. That area is at 25% or less what they average for the winter. 

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1 hour ago, Poker2015 said:

When does this start for Sussex County? I'll be camping up there Friday night...

You're talking about weekend storm timings on Monday. Think about that for a second.

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