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Wet snowstorm potential Jan 25-26, mainly high terrain northwest of NYC

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Good Monday morning (Jan 20) everyone, 

Am a little uneasy starting this event specific topic since uncertainty exists regarding thermal profile and latitude of the primary-secondary development but I thought it best to get this going since it's a potential national news story from the Ohio Valley-Great Lakes to the interior northeast. 

Upfront: NYC-LI doesn't look promising at this time for more than 3" of snow , if any snow at all, due to the marginal thermal profile in advance of this system.  The GEFS through 00z/20 was north of the EPS. There is still plenty of time-room for adjustment but at face value (00z/20 ensembles), this looks to me to be a primarily a northeast PA, northwest NJ northeastward into nw CT (I84 corridor) wet snowstorm with lots of potential (for a bust=no significant snow).  My take is it will snow there for a time and that this event could be substantial impact upon higher terrain. 

I'm adding some graphics - these should not amp up NYC or points south.... but for me serve as a starter for a winter event. These include the 05z/20 NWS ensemble chance of 3+ inches of snow which is less than 10% for NYC.  Then I've added..courtesy of the ECMWF and Weather.US,  the 00z/20 EPS probs for 3 and 6" for this event (6 days in advance).  I've also added the 00z/20 GEFS snowfall plume for LGA which is very low... most plumes under 2".  This all adjusts as we move forward in time. 

If you want to root for snow, root development south of both ensemble systems 00z/20 positions.  Am still concerned this will end up north and warmer (rain) up to I84.  625A/20

 

Screen_Shot_2020-01-20_at_4_50.01_AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-01-20 at 4.44.36 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-01-20 at 5.32.53 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-01-20 at 5.03.23 AM.png

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Definitely uneasy this far in advance.  What I do like is the tracking of both models ensembles of the 500 low and a shot at se flow at 850 for 6-12 hours down here.  Wish somehow we could leave a little more cold air in here in advance.  Boundary layer warmth is a potential big problem.  Did look at snow growth stuff and while modeled snow growth changes radically from run-run, there is potential, where the BL doesn't change to rain.  For now, i have to think northwest of NYC.  I wont post again til ~7A Tuesday  but everyone here will know prior tk that whether these is still a little hope for close to NYC. The  GEFS plumes for LGA--I'd like to see those increase a bit by the time Thursday rolls around. I do remember Don's post from 2 day ago about the statistical snow chance for NYC being pretty low so... am not too hopeful for NYC, certainly not now. I think it's best to think of all the downsides this far in advance. 

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This isn’t over for New York City but the burbs look like the prime spot. Definitely a more long lasting event coming up with this.

gfs has 36 hours of precip

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8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs is really good for the interior

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22.png

Perfect low track for the metro area and 100% rain. Shades of 97-98. 

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Perfect low track for the metro area and 100% rain. Shades of 97-98. 

Too close to the coast

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1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

So much time to figure this out.  

Yes, take it with a grain of salt for now. We still have five days to go. Within 60 hours, I'll be more interested. Better to not over-hype now and be disappointed later on...

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7 minutes ago, rossi said:

All we need is  50 to 100 mile east movement and we all get plastered

 

That would not change the fact that we have a onshore flow with a bad airmass. This is rain regardless for the coast. Northern Pa and Upstate ny have the best shot.

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11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Perfect low track for the metro area and 100% rain. Shades of 97-98. 

Actually not a perfect track, a bit close to the coast, the airmass is very marginal though which means the perfect track and strength is needed more than it usually would be in January.

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

That would not change the fact that we have a onshore flow with a bad airmass. This is rain regardless for the coast. Northern Pa and Upstate ny have the best shot.

Bingo! Kind of hard to snow when you don’t have any cold air. Doesn’t matter what the track is. This honestly looks like a late March/April storm 

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11 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Very excited to be traveling to northeast PA Friday for a weekend ski trip. I’m finally going to see a real snowstorm this year 

6 Days out, I wouldn't lock this in yet.

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Just now, snowman19 said:

Bingo! Kind of hard to snow when you don’t have any cold air. Doesn’t matter what the track is. This honestly looks like a late March/April storm 

Not true if the low is further east and bombs out it will snow to the coast, The 6Z GFS was very close to snow for the city.

 

 

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On 1/20/2020 at 11:32 AM, snowman19 said:

Bingo! Kind of hard to snow when you don’t have any cold air. Doesn’t matter what the track is. This honestly looks like a late March/April storm 

 

This is a function of Low Placement , where did their cold air come from ? Santa.

Our air mass 75 miles S is different ? 

If the GFS is driving the ULL too far N then this would come south a bit.

So far this is a major interior snowstorm.

 

 

 

25AB27AC-711F-43DA-B683-EEBF2C6A5D1F.png

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5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Actually not a perfect track, a bit close to the coast, the airmass is very marginal though which means the perfect track and strength is needed more than it usually would be in January.

Bingo

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Just now, PB-99 said:

 

This is a function of Low Placement , where did their cold air come from ? Santa.

Our air mass 75 miles S is different ? 

If the GFS is driving the ULL too far N then this would come south a bit.

So far this is a major interior snowstorm, but the Euro 850`s are off the EC at 144 and would be 75 miles away from changing R to S even into NYC 

 

 

 

25AB27AC-711F-43DA-B683-EEBF2C6A5D1F.png

In fairness it's easier to get snow in the interior without an ideal airmass than it is at the coast, I agree though if this shifts east it will snow to the coast. 

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9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Bingo! Kind of hard to snow when you don’t have any cold air. Doesn’t matter what the track is. This honestly looks like a late March/April storm 

Which is why the lower elevations of the HV and areas near Boston are getting clobbered on the GFS runs? This is not an interior elevation event only, it is dependent on the track and strength of the low

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4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe if you were right about the MJO was better this would work lol

 

So far that is going into 7 and is spot on. ( touches and 8 and goes into the null ) .

Unlike you guys thinking it was stuck in 6 and then looping back into 4/5/6 last week.

 

I may go back and bump those for ya. 

 

That said, I told you this pos in H/B would force the low under and it`s doing just that.

 

I think you posted there was " no cold air until Montreal " ? 

 

what a whiff. 

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Next person to discuss anything other than the weather will be gone till next winter. Im tired of f*cking babysitting. Grow up. 

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13 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

In fairness it's easier to get snow in the interior without an ideal airmass than it is at the coast, I agree though if this shifts east it will snow to the coast. 

The center placement is bad regardless but you can see some Valley`s and Peaks here represented nicely here.

Long duration event at the ski resorts as they upslope.

 

That`s a nice interior snowstorm. 

 

25AB27AC-711F-43DA-B683-EEBF2C6A5D1F.png

 

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