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Kmlwx

2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread

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1 minute ago, biodhokie said:

So only an orange day today. I love how accurate that system really is.

its uncanny. i love this place, truly i do. we all play our roles, we all know what they are. and yet we still give each other shit over it. love it.

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Guess we’re going to hold off on the truly high risk stuff today.

58b726d83a08c_WxWatcherPredictionSystem.jpg.c523087658b1c2c3925b48f876fe5c63.jpg

We had a chance for Step 4 but the  18.5z  HRRRRRRNAMWRF said no.  I'll wait for the 19.35z RAPCAMOMGWTF run

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Sorry for a silly question, I’m new to posting but a lurker for years.

Is the tornado threat for north/central Maryland and then it will switch to more of a wind threat as it becomes more linear moving East? Ik bowing line segments can produce tornadoes but always thought they were more associated with high winds.

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

Problem is @Ian, isn't here as much and I haven't seen @Ellinwoodin ages. 

mark tweets often enough. he's got a kid now and this place tends to fall off the radar with young ones at home.

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

mark tweets often enough. he's got a kid now and this place tends to fall off the radar with young ones at home.

Yeah I follow him over there. Still posts good stuff. Didn't want to add his handle without him giving the go ahead. 

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Just now, juliacarolecat said:

Sorry for a silly question, I’m new to posting but a lurker for years.

Is the tornado threat for north/central Maryland and then it will switch to more of a wind threat as it becomes more linear moving East? Ik bowing line segments can produce tornadoes but always thought they were more associated with high winds.

not a silly question! welcome!

yeah, the tornado threat is for any discrete cells that may pop up, and/or tornadoes that may spin up in a QLCS (quasi-liner convection system) aka bowing lines

Wind seems to be the biggest threat today, hence the 30% from SPC. But can't rule out a tornado.

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1 minute ago, thunderman said:

That 10% is still very much warranted IMO.  If one of these discreet cells gets interacting with a local boundary, lookout.

Red box by 4PM I think.

Good to see you back here too! 

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3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Mesoanalysis is starting to bulk up on parameters. Predictably, mostly in areas with more sun. The RAP forecast that is integrated in mesoanalysis looks good too. 

If you look at the regional radar, there's definitely some discrete stuff firing in Central WV. The challenge is to get this stuff rooted in the surface instability to start tapping the shear and helicity though. The 12z RAOB from IAD has a ConvT of 87 degrees and we aren't seeing anything in the uppers 80s until you get south and east of I95. If I were on the eastern shore or S. MD I'd be pretty psyched about today.

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7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Problem is @Ian, isn't here as much and I haven't seen @Ellinwoodin ages. 

The system is probably due for an update but if it’s a big enough threat I’ll see the smoke signal on Twitter. It really is amazing how accurate the system is though. Other than The Panic Room this might be my best work. :lol: 

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not a silly question! welcome!
yeah, the tornado threat is for any discrete cells that may pop up, and/or tornadoes that may spin up in a QLCS (quasi-liner convection system) aka bowing lines
Wind seems to be the biggest threat today, hence the 30% from SPC. But can't rule out a tornado.

Thank you! I’m on the northern Eastern Shore. Looks like we’re going to have a busy afternoon


.

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The system is probably due for an update but if it’s a big enough threat I’ll see the smoke signal on Twitter. It really is amazing how accurate the system is though. Other than The Panic Room this might be my best work. :lol: 

   it really is, although kmlwx and I are not quite in lock step today.....

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1 minute ago, juliacarolecat said:


Thank you! I’m on the northern Eastern Shore. Looks like we’re going to have a busy afternoon


.

def follow @CAPE posts since he's a mid-eastern shore resident. 

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

   it really is, although kmlwx and I are not quite in lock step today.....

any more "mappyland" thoughts? 

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

   it really is, although kmlwx and I are not quite in lock step today.....

You're the red tagger so that's my fault ;) I defer to you. I'm just an armchair weather freak. 

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

I've always felt bad for poor Yoda being down there at the bottom. I've gotten way more skeptical of exciting weather with age. 

It’s a sign of respect. Somebody has to be the first step. Yoda knows what to pay attention to at range. If he’s meh, call it a day. 

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7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If you look at the regional radar, there's definitely some discrete stuff firing in Central WV. The challenge is to get this stuff rooted in the surface instability to start tapping the shear and helicity though. The 12z RAOB from IAD has a ConvT of 87 degrees and we aren't seeing anything in the uppers 80s until you get south and east of I95. If I were on the eastern shore or S. MD I'd be pretty psyched about today.

Starting to get there here in Loudoun. I have bouncing between 86 and 88 for a while now.. Many places just to my south have maintained 87 to as high as 90..so borderline.. All about the sunshine though, and it has been sporadic 

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s a sign of respect. Somebody has to be the first step. Yoda knows what to pay attention to at range. If he’s meh, call it a day. 

Need to add a negative step color.  Like if someone non met from PA or NJ or NY comes in to tell us to GET HYPE then its an immediate lol reaction.  Call it a Yanksfan or SENC or that guy from Laura that was going off after it landed.

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Okay, maybe I'm too pessimistic about today:

 

nah i dont think youre pessimistic, per say. you just have higher expectations than the rest of us on what falls into severe categories. ;) 

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Those are VERY useful. Seems we don't get them when we should sometimes. Let's see what we are dealing with. 

Yea I'll base my interest for the rest of the day on that. I don't know why we don't have more special RAOBs.

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7 minutes ago, H2O said:

Its not a mappyland day today.  This is def waterboy is due type day

i hope you do get something, friend! of course i always want severe IMBY, but i like when others get it too.

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@Eskimo Joe kindly requests an EF-5 embedded within the eyewall of a Cat 5 hurricane rolling just west of Potomac, followed by it going extra-tropical, pulling down an Arctic airmass and dumping 2 inches of ice to be followed up immediately by a paste bomb or blizzard. 

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