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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread

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EAS went off for the flash flood warning 

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18 hours ago, AdamHLG said:

I am the probably the only forum member in Baltimore County that did not get a drop of rain or flash of lightning. Chestnut Ridge. This is day 2 of zip nada zilch zero. We did have a 6 mph gust so not all is lost. Talk about a snow hole jeez this is so much worse.

Going to go for the hat trick tomorrow.


.

So hows today going?

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

So hows today going?

Falling asleep at your job dude no copy/paste today?

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Just now, mappy said:

Falling asleep at your job dude no copy/paste today?

Actually was out and about going to the store amongst other things... got a nice s'mores frappuccino from Starbucks to enjoy with a new book by Clive Cussler.

It seems I have no backup on the job here :lol:

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So hows today going?

Certainly no severe but some yellows and reds to the west and some rumbles of thunder in the distance. It’s go no-go time. Just enough time to fall apart before it hits or strengthen. We shall see.


.

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        We're obviously focused on the current day, but don't sleep on tomorrow.     While the CAMs are not in agreement about whether there will be any storms, some guidance does (12z NAM nest, 18z HRRR....) bring fast-moving storms through on the front during the afternoon.    Coverage would be limited, but the cape/shear combo is sufficient for a wind/hail threat in any storm that develops, consistent with the MRGL threat from SPC.

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That’s some big ol’ fat rain as Forrest would say

Torrential 

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Should get a nice, needed soaking out of this. Not sure much else though. Very little lightning with these and I'm not sure flooding will be anything but very isolated. Northern Harford is getting pounded, though.

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Nice looking structure 

 

You could see some of the shelf on WBAL tower cam when they showed it in the 6pm hour. Nothing like that here, but Max got a great pic. 1.35 as of 10 min ago IMBY. I’ll take it! 

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24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

0.75” from this evenings round. Over 2” on the month. Very nice start.

Our water bill loves us. ;)

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5 hours ago, high risk said:

        We're obviously focused on the current day, but don't sleep on tomorrow.     While the CAMs are not in agreement about whether there will be any storms, some guidance does (12z NAM nest, 18z HRRR....) bring fast-moving storms through on the front during the afternoon.    Coverage would be limited, but the cape/shear combo is sufficient for a wind/hail threat in any storm that develops, consistent with the MRGL threat from SPC.

            Gonna bump my earlier post.    Looking at the 00z guidance, there is a pretty healthy combination of cape and deep-layer shear progged for tomorrow afternoon.    The limiting factor is downsloping and overall lack of convergence on the front, which explains the very limited coverage of storms in the guidance, but any storms that do form have wind potential (and perhaps hail potential) for sure.     If later runs show greater storm coverage, it's a SLGT risk day.

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4 hours ago, high risk said:

            Gonna bump my earlier post.    Looking at the 00z guidance, there is a pretty healthy combination of cape and deep-layer shear progged for tomorrow afternoon.    The limiting factor is downsloping and overall lack of convergence on the front, which explains the very limited coverage of storms in the guidance, but any storms that do form have wind potential (and perhaps hail potential) for sure.     If later runs show greater storm coverage, it's a SLGT risk day.

Good call... New day 1 is MRGL... 0/5/5

Quote
...Mid-Atlantic states...
   The southern portion of the boundary forecast to move across New
   England will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this
   afternoon.  Models indicate widely scattered thunderstorms by mid
   afternoon near the Chesapeake Bay vicinity.  Forecast soundings show
   around 35kt effective shear and moderate instability.  Isolated
   large hail/damaging gusts are possible with the stronger storms
   before this activity weakens during the evening as it shifts
   southward into southeast VA.

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2.67" here, less than 2 miles NE of me over 5"

Gully washer for sure.  Not much in the way of wind.  A few lightning strikes or so.

And then BOOM!  While we were at the dinner table at 18:15 a blinding pink-ish flash and boom at the same time like a howitzer going off.  Caught nicely on security cameras (just the flash) and crazy report.  Peeled a tree right behind the detached garage.  I hate those, literally no warning at all, and the thunder part was seemingly over.

 

Also at 16:32 there was nice rotation noted just north of us where there was significant lightning activity.

 

2020-06-05 16.32.53.jpg

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Not sure if this is the right place to put this, but I just got home and was on 29 in Ellicott City and could see the lightning from the storms in Richmond area. Incredible!

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