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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread


Kmlwx
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5 hours ago, high risk said:

        We're obviously focused on the current day, but don't sleep on tomorrow.     While the CAMs are not in agreement about whether there will be any storms, some guidance does (12z NAM nest, 18z HRRR....) bring fast-moving storms through on the front during the afternoon.    Coverage would be limited, but the cape/shear combo is sufficient for a wind/hail threat in any storm that develops, consistent with the MRGL threat from SPC.

            Gonna bump my earlier post.    Looking at the 00z guidance, there is a pretty healthy combination of cape and deep-layer shear progged for tomorrow afternoon.    The limiting factor is downsloping and overall lack of convergence on the front, which explains the very limited coverage of storms in the guidance, but any storms that do form have wind potential (and perhaps hail potential) for sure.     If later runs show greater storm coverage, it's a SLGT risk day.

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4 hours ago, high risk said:

            Gonna bump my earlier post.    Looking at the 00z guidance, there is a pretty healthy combination of cape and deep-layer shear progged for tomorrow afternoon.    The limiting factor is downsloping and overall lack of convergence on the front, which explains the very limited coverage of storms in the guidance, but any storms that do form have wind potential (and perhaps hail potential) for sure.     If later runs show greater storm coverage, it's a SLGT risk day.

Good call... New day 1 is MRGL... 0/5/5

Quote

...Mid-Atlantic states...
   The southern portion of the boundary forecast to move across New
   England will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this
   afternoon.  Models indicate widely scattered thunderstorms by mid
   afternoon near the Chesapeake Bay vicinity.  Forecast soundings show
   around 35kt effective shear and moderate instability.  Isolated
   large hail/damaging gusts are possible with the stronger storms
   before this activity weakens during the evening as it shifts
   southward into southeast VA.
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2.67" here, less than 2 miles NE of me over 5"

Gully washer for sure.  Not much in the way of wind.  A few lightning strikes or so.

And then BOOM!  While we were at the dinner table at 18:15 a blinding pink-ish flash and boom at the same time like a howitzer going off.  Caught nicely on security cameras (just the flash) and crazy report.  Peeled a tree right behind the detached garage.  I hate those, literally no warning at all, and the thunder part was seemingly over.

 

Also at 16:32 there was nice rotation noted just north of us where there was significant lightning activity.

 

2020-06-05 16.32.53.jpg

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18 minutes ago, Zanclidae said:

I'm in Harford county and can see the lightning from our tower cam, same view as the clear sky shot I posted earlier.

I'll upload some video in a bit.  That is crazy.  If I saw that I'd guess those storms would be in Calvert county!

I am in Northeast North Carolina and I can see it. Pretty crazy.

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10 hours ago, r3w said:

All clear here in Calvert, seems to be just South of us across the water. Lightning was pretty wild.

Yeah what I meant was if I was outside watching that lightning and didn't have access to radarscope, I'd guess it was in Calvert! ;)

That PTZ is about 25' off the ground on a tower.  I want to get it up higher.  It will bounce more in the wind but the view will be worth it.  It that point I should clear the trees and see TV hill.  Back in the 80s when these trees were either saplings or non existent we could see TV hill tower strobes at night just standing in the driveway.

 

 

2020-06-06 22.34.47.png

And the video:

 

 

 

 

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Lots of models have been hinting at a strong shortwave trough interacting with Cristobal's remnant circulation and becoming negatively-tilted through the Ohio Valley. The GFS has been most aggressive and fastest model when it comes to swinging the cold front associated with the shortwave through the region (late Wednesday). Most other models are slower with the cold front and have weaker shear/dynamics as a result of the shortwave being farther away from us by the time the front passes through (Wednesday night/ early Thursday) as well as poor timing heating-wise anyway. Should the shortwave and front be a bit faster, like the GFS shows, there could be a severe threat come later Wednesday given the warm/moist airmass that should be in place from Cristobal. 

Just me thinking out loud. It's a bit of a long shot atm given how different the GFS is from other models timing-wise. Well have to see how the interaction takes place between the two main features.

#Notanexpertopinion

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Um... about Wednesday? @Kmlwx @high risk @Eskimo Joe

@George BM mentioned it above... From this evening AFD from LWX:

Quote

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Deepening onshore flow will result in widespread low clouds
developing late Tue night with a small chance of showers along
the I-64 corridor. Moisture deepens during the day Wednesday
with PWAT values expected to rise above 2 inches and 925 mb
dewpoints in excess of 20C. This when combined with temps in the
90s, CAPE values will be very high approaching 3000 J/kg over
western areas. Weak height falls associated with approaching
upper level trough may be more than sufficient to initiate
t-storms in a highly sheared and very unstable air mass. Believe
environment looks favorable for isolated HP supercells with the
risk of tornadoes mainly west of the Blue Ridge.
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10 hours ago, yoda said:

Um... about Wednesday? @Kmlwx @high risk @Eskimo Joe

@George BM mentioned it above... From this evening AFD from LWX:

        The issue is that the best wind fields stay well west of here, which is why LWX talks about a threat west of the Blue Ridge

        That said, for those of further east, the wind fields aren't great but will be improving through Wednesday night.     But the instability will be deceasing through that period, mitigating the threat of severe.        There might be a period of overlap with decent shear and instability across northern VA early Wednesday evening.        I am, however, thinking that people along and northwest of the I-95 corridor have a good chance of getting at least one round of northeast-moving heavy rainers with lightning later Wednesday evening.

 

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New day 1 (for today) pushes SLGT risk into i81 corridor in NW VA... MRGL to i95 corridor 

Disco from 0600 OTLK was short for us, lol:

   Farther east, strong heating across the central Appalachians will
   aid scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon well ahead
   of the upper trough. This activity will not be strongly forced, but
   adequately sheared for at least some threat for isolated wind/hail.


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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

It's amazing how quiet severe wx season has been in our part. We had two solid events and then crickets ever since.

Indeed. Now parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes region are under a moderate risk of severe weather (45% hatched wind)... only the second moderate risk or greater anywhere in the US since April.

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2 minutes ago, George BM said:

Indeed. Now parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes region are under a moderate risk of severe weather (45% hatched wind)... only the second moderate risk or greater anywhere in the US since April.

While I'm glad that we're seeing a reduction in property and life loss, it would be nice to at least get some garden variety storms. We really haven't seen a regionwide rainfall event of more than an inch in some time and it's starting t.

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21 minutes ago, George BM said:

Indeed. Now parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes region are under a moderate risk of severe weather (45% hatched wind)... only the second moderate risk or greater anywhere in the US since April.

     exactly.      the entire SVR season has been ridiculously tame almost everywhere.      there hasn't been a MDT for tornadoes since those April events in the southeast

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