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Thundersnow12

January 22nd-25th Winter Storm Potential

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28 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Precipitation just started here.  At first it was a mix of very light sleet and snow.  Now it is freezing rain with a bit of sleet.

I know some models had a strip of freezing rain near the front edge.  Let us know when it changes to snow.

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I know some models had a strip of freezing rain near the front edge.  Let us know when it changes to snow.

It is switching to snow right now.

This snow will have trouble sticking to the wet, dark pavement, but there is still a solid glaze of ice over the snowpack and patio, so I'll measure there.

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Tonight into the first ~half of tomorrow may very well have the coldest temperatures for the LOT region out of this entire storm.  Too bad precip amounts will be pretty light in that timeframe.

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2 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

12z CMC goes from rain to wet snow for the GTA. 3-5" of wet snow to be precise. As the initial low wraps around just south of us, the warmer air creeps its way into the GTA. Once the coastal begins developing, we'll see how fast the thermals cool thereafter. 

Edit: Not overly optimistic right now. It's a pretty complex set-up and timing is everything. 

I saw the EURO snow map was a huge downgrade.  What's the issue?  Lack of cold or lack of QPF?

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The area of light precip moving through my area is flipping back and forth between very light freezing rain, sleet, and snow.... mostly non-snow.  At this point, I'm not expecting any snow accumulation until later.

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6 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

37F and getting some liquid drizzle. Exciting stuff. 

:axe: Sorry that it’s 37F at MSP in January. That’s unacceptable. It’s even supposed to get into the 30s in the UP. What a joke. 

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Just now, beavis1729 said:

:axe: Sorry that it’s 37F at MSP in January. That’s unacceptable. 

Yes, because only average and below average temps are allowed. 

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5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Yes, because only average and below average temps are allowed. 

I mean unacceptable compared to what winter should be (especially in those areas), not climo. You know, Currier and Ives, people ice fishing, etc.
 

If we judged everything by climo, it would be pretty depressing in our part of the world. It’s just reality. 

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4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Yes, because only average and below average temps are allowed. 

Jokes aside, I always explain to people that if we were always above average or always below average, then average would not be average.

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1 minute ago, beavis1729 said:

I mean unacceptable compared to what winter should be (especially in those areas), not climo. You know, Currier and Ives, people ice fishing, etc.
 

If we judged everything by climo, it would be pretty depressing in our part of the world. It’s just reality. 

A very small (inhabitable) portion of the world would satisfy you lol. :lol: Its actually a nice winter day here, everything blanketed in snow, temps remain below freezing.

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7 minutes ago, mimillman said:

ORD plumes back over 3”. That’s over 1” jump in the past two runs. 
 

Alek :rolleyes:

HRRR seems to be picking up on the cold water temps near the shore.  Look at that narrow strip.  Kind of funny

HRRRCHI_sfc_temp_036.png.5df80344f9a9e51546209c980a5e433a.png

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1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

It is switching to snow right now.

This snow will have trouble sticking to the wet, dark pavement, but there is still a solid glaze of ice over the snowpack and patio, so I'll measure there.

Here the precip will start about 9hrs after it started there, and at night of course lol.  I'm sure during the course of this 60hr precip window some of the snow will fall during the day.

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1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

I saw the EURO snow map was a huge downgrade.  What's the issue?  Lack of cold or lack of QPF?

Both! 

The initial low ended up further west and stronger compared to yesterdays 12z runs. Consequently, more warmer air creeps into the GTA. That slight shift means we end up too far west for any decent precip from the coastal low once the energy does transfer. Oshawa and Kingston fare much better due to stronger thermal cooling. Tonight's 00z runs will be key if this trend continues or we end up somewhere in the middle. 

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10 minutes ago, mimillman said:

ORD plumes back over 3”. That’s over 1” jump in the past two runs. 
 

Alek :rolleyes:

Google is a mess on this one - would somebody please explain to me the significance of "plumes?"  Thanks!

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24 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

A very small (inhabitable) portion of the world would satisfy you lol. :lol: Its actually a nice winter day here, everything blanketed in snow, temps remain below freezing.

When even Josh says you are unreasonable in reference to cold and snow, might be time to reevaluate things.

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5 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Alek’s Stevie Wonder model looking is making the rounds off the forum now. Guy going off the deep end 

Gotta get that misinformation out there.

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6 minutes ago, iBrian said:

Google is a mess on this one - would somebody please explain to me the significance of "plumes?"  Thanks!

Search for SREF plumes.

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15 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Alek’s Stevie Wonder model looking is making the rounds off the forum now. Guy going off the deep end 

What are your thoughts on this one?  

I do think it will likely change to rain in the city and some distance north/west of there.  For how long is the question.

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29 minutes ago, mimillman said:

ORD plumes back over 3”. That’s over 1” jump in the past two runs. 
 

Alek :rolleyes:

 

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The mesoscale models, once in range, will be able to pick up changes in surface and 850mb temperatures better. How fast the upper level low closes off will determine how it interacts with the developing coastal. A 50 mile shift either way could mean a big difference for the GTA. 

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2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

The mesoscale models, once in range, will be able to pick up changes in surface and 850mb temperatures better. How fast the upper level low closes off will determine how it interacts with the developing coastal. A 50 mile shift either way could mean a big difference for the GTA. 

Probably won't be ironed out until Friday, unless the models really start to shift in one direction.

Still seems like a good bet for at least a little bit of slushy accum on Saturday.

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