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Thundersnow12

January 22nd-25th Winter Storm Potential

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18z NAM pushes the first wave snow shield a bit north & looks warmer thru Thursday AM at the lower levels

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45 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

If the NAM is right, Friday could be a fun day

Gets N IL in a pivot point and just sits and spins. Low is in the same general area from hour 66 to 84. 6-8" with the defo band dumping snow at the end of the run. 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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18z GFS still a dumpster fire. 
Maybe if someone tries turning the super-computer off and back on again.. 
Exact details of the setup are certainly still subject to change, especially farther out in time, but I have a hard time believing all the other models and ensembles are wrong on 925 mb temps.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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Think I'll go 2-4" for this area for a first guess.  More might actually fall but doubt it will physically add up to much more than that.  Could be a situation where MLI reports a grand total of like 5.5", but to the public it will seem more like 3", etc.  Kind of a lame system in that regard.

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I guess the only thing I can expect for sure out of this is every different type of precipitation. Rain, Sleet, Snow, Freezing Rain, Ice Pellets..... Only question is how much falls this far north.

 

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Feels like the NWS office here is still sticking with the GFS (or at the very least not the NAM), point & click calls for rain & snow becoming all rain tomorrow after an all-snow onset tonight

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4 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Nice, thanks T4.

18z GFS was an improvement over the 12z run and all of the 18z GEFS ensemble members show snowfall for the Golden Horseshoe. Some of them show significant snowfall, similar to the 12z UKMET (saw snowfall map posted in the Upstate NY subforum).

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10:1 ratio map caveat as per usual but 18z GFS ensemble mean is a nice thump* along I-80

 

* as much of a 'thump' as >48 hours of intermittent light-to-moderate snows can be

 

GEFSMW_prec_meansnacc_108.png

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2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Exact details of the setup are certainly still subject to change, especially farther out in time, but I have a hard time believing all the other models and ensembles are wrong on 925 mb temps.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

There really isn't a compelling reason to believe the GFS thermal profiles.  Always have to be skeptical of outliers... maybe a little less so if it's the ECMWF as the outlier but that is not the case this time.  What kind of track record does this upgraded GFS have to put a lot of faith in it?  Like you said, it doesn't mean the snowier models are going to nail amounts either because we are still dealing with questionable 2m temps.  This discrepancy with the temps aloft has been interesting to watch.  I have never been more curious to look at actual observed 925 mb temps in the coming days lol

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If anyone is looking closely at point and click or hourly weather graphs for this event we do have a fair amount of rain and snow mention during the day on Friday because of surface temps being as marginal as they are. Would think that at periods of lower precip rates that we could mix or flip to rain, or falling snow would not accumulate and essentially function as white rain.

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12 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

If anyone is looking closely at point and click or hourly weather graphs for this event we do have a fair amount of rain and snow mention during the day on Friday because of surface temps being as marginal as they are. Would think that at periods of lower precip rates that we could mix or flip to rain, or falling snow would not accumulate and essentially function as white rain.

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Definitely very marginal temps for any accumulation. However with a relatively strong closed low and the fact it will be strengthening as it passes over us, makes me think dynamics could compensate for lack of colder air. I remember this clipper a few years ago came through with very marginal temps but it was very compact and wound up. We ended up dynamically cooling to around 32-31 and efficiently accumulated snow with moderate to sometimes heavy rates. I know this isn't a clipper but made me think of how wrapped up this system is aloft

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6 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Not happening. Many places across the GTA saw ~20" with that storm. The Dec 92 storm was a full blown Nor'easter and was much stronger.

As it stands right now, 2-4" seems reasonable. 

I remember that storm - was 12 years old. Originally they'd been calling for 4-6" and we ended up with about 17" at my place. Just an amazing storm.

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52 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

If anyone is looking closely at point and click or hourly weather graphs for this event we do have a fair amount of rain and snow mention during the day on Friday because of surface temps being as marginal as they are. Would think that at periods of lower precip rates that we could mix or flip to rain, or falling snow would not accumulate and essentially function as white rain.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Was just thinking about how screwed the city would be in a marginal setup like this if it were earlier in the season.  Flow is pretty much offshore until Friday but then when it does turn onshore on Friday, it is not that strong and shoreline temp is now down to 33 and the crib is all the way down to 29.  Everybody is going to struggle to accumulate at times in this setup with how marginal it is but shouldn't end up with a big inland to lakeside gradient.  

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1 hour ago, Kaner88 said:

10:1 ratio map caveat as per usual but 18z GFS ensemble mean is a nice thump* along I-80

 

* as much of a 'thump' as >48 hours of intermittent light-to-moderate snows can be

 

GEFSMW_prec_meansnacc_108.png

Epic middle finger for Lk Huron.

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1 hour ago, Toronto4 said:

18z GFS was an improvement over the 12z run and all of the 18z GEFS ensemble members show snowfall for the Golden Horseshoe. Some of them show significant snowfall, similar to the 12z UKMET (saw snowfall map posted in the Upstate NY subforum).

Well, if it does transpire, can't argue with back-to-back snowstorms on Saturdays.  At least no commuting problems for us working stiffs.

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Just now, snowstormcanuck said:

Well, if it does transpire, can't argue with back-to-back snowstorms on Saturdays.  At least no commuting problems for us working stiffs.

Counterpoint b2b friday evening hell commutes for us further west

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7 minutes ago, mimillman said:

This stands to be the first snow on snow event for Chicagoland

Maybe for downtown, but not the burbs.

Edit: Totally didn't read what you wrote correctly. Yea, you're right.

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