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HoarfrostHubb

January 18-19 SWFE

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I know Will said this too,  but that area under WSW May get a boost if the secondary developed quicker. Still, I’m not sure I’d have the confidence for WSW numbers.

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7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Makes sense.... there is very little confidence anyone will see warning amounts... let alone a large enough majority to justify a warning.

I promise you though... a few people will get 6 or 7” and you’ll here “blehhhhhhhhh, should have been a warning, we got 7 inches!!”

Is that "blehhhhh" a Felger reference? :lol:

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People generally obsess over the warnings vs advisory thing when it doesn't matter that much on a marginal forecast like this one....the difference between 5.5" and 6.5" can be covered by a million different uncertainties: ratios, banding, model qpf error, low level enhancement, etc.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Is that "blehhhhh" a Felger reference? :lol:

 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

LOL I love that. 

Yup... lol. All I can hear in my head too is him saying it. 
 

Hopefully this trends a little juicier and there is a lot of blehhhhing going on Sunday 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

People generally obsess over the warnings vs advisory thing when it doesn't matter that much on a marginal forecast like this one....the difference between 5.5" and 6.5" can be covered by a million different uncertainties: ratios, banding, model qpf error, low level enhancement, etc.

Pfft.  It means EVERYTHING.

 

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Those maps look pretty good to me. Might be a little juicy off to the northwest...though the orographic spots will get additional snows on Sunday.

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2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 

Yup... lol. All I can hear in my head too is him saying it. 
 

Hopefully this trends a little juicier and there is a lot of blehhhhing going on Sunday 

:lol: I love that DB.

Still like 4-7" for 495 zone...shouldn't much change at all from first call. Will post Final Call tonight.

7" will be pretty isolated imo.

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31 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

you have certainly changed your tune, wrote this off pretty much a couple days ago, then 2-4 then 3-5 now 6-7.

8-10 tomorrow morning?

You never adjust. Sometimes it’s ok to take amounts up especially as things have ramped up today 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Those maps look pretty good to me. Might be a little juicy off to the northwest...though the orographic spots will get additional snows on Sunday.

I agree.

I personally don't care, it doesn't affect the outcome and certainly doesn't affect my FX. I just find it funny when watches go up, nothing supports it, they themselves have 0% >6" in those areas and you KNOW they are just going to be converted to an advisory anyways.

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I revise my call to 3-6’’....don’t love the warnings. It’s going to have to go gangbusters to verify widespread 6’’ amounts. I can see it coming down good at like 8-9 o’clock and then it shuts off by 2 am. Going to need to do a lot of work in that timeframe for warning amounts. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You never adjust. Sometimes it’s ok to take amounts up especially as things have ramped up today 

Thats not true at all. I put out a first call map yesterday and I'm working on a new one as we speak for a final call, that will be adjusted.

I haven't needed to for the past few storms and have an excellent track record so far this season. 

I can show you many storms that ive bumped up or down in past seasons.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

People generally obsess over the warnings vs advisory thing when it doesn't matter that much on a marginal forecast like this one....the difference between 5.5" and 6.5" can be covered by a million different uncertainties: ratios, banding, model qpf error, low level enhancement, etc.

The difference between 5.5”-6.5”   Is meaningless to the general public and makes little difference to severity of impact on driving conditions and shoveling.

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2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The difference between 5.5”-6.5”   Is meaningless to the general public and makes little difference to severity of impact on driving conditions and shoveling.

But weenies love warnings, myself included. 

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

:lol: I love that DB.

Still like 4-7" for 495 zone...shouldn't much change at all from first call. Will post Final Call tonight.

7" will be pretty isolated imo.

Yeah that’s a decent call I think. 

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I think this is over in sne by midnight unless we get the good bye kiss from a coastal blowing up further south

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

I think this is over in sne by midnight unless we get the good bye kiss from a coastal blowing up further south

Yeah I think the meat is from 8-midnight or so and then it’s a really quick shutoff. 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m still having trouble seeing more than 6 inches and a larger area.

That's what she said.

20 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The difference between 5.5”-6.5”   Is meaningless to the general public and makes little difference to severity of impact on driving conditions and shoveling.

That's not what she said.

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9 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Wish this was a daylight storm.  Seems like it will start around dark and end around dawn.  Good night for the spot lights.

perfect for me. Sledding tomorrow, be back before it starts. Riding local sunday. Sunny skies after another 6-8".Perfect

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northern ct should be in the warning area . im forecasting 5 - 8 inches for northern ct area . just let every know lawmakers in ct are considering ct own watches and warning system for the state .

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13 minutes ago, blizzard24 said:

northern ct should be in the warning area . im forecasting 5 - 8 inches for northern ct area . just let every know lawmakers in ct are considering ct own watches and warning system for the state .

No

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