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Snowstorms

January 17-18 Winter Storm

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5 minutes ago, ChiTownStorm11 said:

Garbage

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Better drive to Starved Rock State Park to get in on the action

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I think 5-8" is a good call for Metro Detroit wouldn't be surprised if we get an isolated higher amount especially if the convective element is realized.

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If the Canuk verifies I swear I'm laying all my Loonies on it the rest of the year.  It's done the best in my area 120 hrs out this winter all the way back to Halloween.  Like most, the other models have waffled around here and it has too at times.  But seriously, the Canuk has been pretty on within 5 days, and especially within 3 days for us in the south this year.  Maybe moving forward the spirit of Neil is gonna make it even better with a Natural Science algorithm :sun: 

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GRR saying “hold your horses.” 



.DISCUSSION...(Today through Next Thursday) Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

-- Wet and heavier snow to fall Friday night into Saturday for most of the area --

The area remains on track to see a impactful snowfall tonight and Saturday morning. With this in mind, we will be holding on to the
Winter Weather Advisory as is for this forecast package.

After a quiet day in which we just see clouds thicken up, and winds increase a bit, a fairly robust of snow is expected to move in after dark, and persist into Saturday. This snow will be the result of a very strong push of moisture coming in via a 70 knot low level jet
nosing up into the area. The peak snowfall rates should come after 06z tonight and last until around, or just after 12z Saturday. We are looking at potential inch/hour snow rates of a more wet and heavy snow with lower snow-liquid ratios. This snow will obviously cause issues with the roads, and could cause some power outages as the snow could weigh down power lines and snap tree limbs.

The snow should then let up in intensity on Saturday, and will likely even change to a wintry mix, and then rain/drizzle for areas
along and south of I-96. This happens for a couple of reasons. The first reason is the surface low will come up into the area, and bring a brief shot of warmer air. This will come in aloft first, and could bring a brief bout of some freezing rain. This should not be a problem for roads falling on top of snow.  Also, the deeper moisture will peel away, and could end up as some drizzle as the dgz becomes unsaturated.

 

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.DISCUSSION...(Today through Next Thursday) Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 -- Wet and heavier snow to fall Friday night into Saturday for most of the area -- The area remains on track to see a impactful snowfall tonight and Saturday morning. With this in mind, we will be holding on to the Winter Weather Advisory as is for this forecast package. After a quiet day in which we just see clouds thicken up, and winds increase a bit, a fairly robust of snow is expected to move in after dark, and persist into Saturday. This snow will be the result of a very strong push of moisture coming in via a 70 knot low level jet nosing up into the area. The peak snowfall rates should come after 06z tonight and last until around, or just after 12z Saturday. We are looking at potential inch/hour snow rates of a more wet and heavy snow with lower snow-liquid ratios. This snow will obviously cause issues with the roads, and could cause some power outages as the snow could weigh down power lines and snap tree limbs. The snow should then let up in intensity on Saturday, and will likely even change to a wintry mix, and then rain/drizzle for areas along and south of I-96. This happens for a couple of reasons. The first reason is the surface low will come up into the area, and bring a brief shot of warmer air. This will come in aloft first, and could bring a brief bout of some freezing rain. This should not be a problem for roads falling on top of snow. Also, the deeper moisture will peel away, and could end up as some drizzle as the dgz becomes unsaturated.

 

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Radar does not look impressive, with a showery and spotty look. Overnight guidance also trended down with snow, showing only 2-3 hrs of quality returns before changeover. Feeling much more optimistic about my day 5 call again.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
355 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020


MIZ068>070-075-076-082-083-172200-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0002.200118T0500Z-200118T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0001.200118T0300Z-200118T1700Z/
Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor,
Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
355 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Peak snowfall rates up to an inch
  per hour likely early Saturday morning. Total snow accumulations
  of 5 to 8 inches by Saturday afternoon. Winds gusting as high
  as 30 mph.

* WHERE...Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, Wayne, Lenawee
  and Monroe Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to noon EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Visibilities will be
  decreased in areas of heavy snow.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will begin Friday night and become
  heaviest during the 1 AM to 7 AM timeframe on Saturday.
  Temperates will then rise to near freezing or perhaps a degree
  or two above. This will coincide with a changeover to sleet
  before warmer air transitions precipitation to rain or drizzle
  by mid afternoon, or earlier for Lenawee and Monroe counties.
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1 hour ago, jlauderdal said:

1-3 event for metro chicago, models heading in the wrong direction for anything more

 

Screenshot_20200117-063538_Samsung Internet.jpg

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HRRR looking good.  Looks like a wall of snow hits the QCA around 1pm.  Looks like a solid 4" type storm, but if we can stay in the snow long enough more than that is possible.  Gonna come down to how long we can keep heavier precip around, as once the lighter stuff moves in that will be the end of the snow.  

Tomorrow's winds are going to be legit.  Several hours of 50mph wind gust potential. 

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23 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

Nice long duration event with 12-14" (or more) likely before things wind down on Sunday.  Cold this morning, -6.

You do well synoptically with mild winters. Looks good for you the rest of the month into early Feb. Getting ready to use the umbrella again here save this system for the rest of January

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5 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

You do well synoptically with mild winters. Looks good for you the rest of the month into early Feb. Getting ready to use the umbrella again here save this system for the rest of January

your good for 5". MBY...not so much.

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Temps running colder then forecast. Only 5F here. Dry air and model trends have me thinking 6” is likely event total here. HRRR wants to bring the mix up here. Not sure that will pan out but we’ll see

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HRRR says i make a run at mid 40s with boomer tomorrow, plumes also down again with mean under 3" now at ORD :lol:

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6 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

If the Canuk verifies I swear I'm laying all my Loonies on it the rest of the year.  It's done the best in my area 120 hrs out this winter all the way back to Halloween.  Like most, the other models have waffled around here and it has too at times.  But seriously, the Canuk has been pretty on within 5 days, and especially within 3 days for us in the south this year.  Maybe moving forward the spirit of Neil is gonna make it even better with a Natural Science algorithm :sun: 

A fellow Hoosier Rush fan, I like it!  My company is named after a Rush song.... way too early

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9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Guidance looks great for Southeast Michigan. Now we wait.

Impressive to see that you guys are going to get another warning criteria snowfall in the "warm sector" of a system, given it also happened not too long ago and how unusual it is. 

 

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HRRR says i make a run at mid 40s with boomer tomorrow, plumes also down again with mean under 3" now at ORD :lol:

Enjoy the 2-5” before that.


.
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1 hour ago, Baum said:

your good for 5". MBY...not so much.

Hopefully it will be a spead the wealth system across the metro

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