Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Tuesday 1/7/20 Disco snow event


MountainGeek
 Share

Recommended Posts

Guess it was to be expected, but this system has pretty much morphed into a Fall line special (95 and N and W). Fully expect to see the death band to set up where we typically see it (PSU land hooking around S and W). Probably see 4-5 inches, with a jackpot or two of 6, through this region as we should see some 12-1+ ratio snow. There is one thing that could possibly knock these totals down somewhat. And that is if they were to lose some of this to low level warmth and rain considering that the precip comes in hot and heavy from the start. Really don't expect to see that except for maybe a few spritzes initially. Cities are probably good for an inch or two as well though they could surprise if we can limit the low level warmth before the onset.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 here.

Trends on all guidance overnight and early this morning is a further north track, maybe outside of the Euro. It is cold now, but temps will warm today ahead of the developing low. With a further north/closer in track, the low level warmth will take longer to displace SE of I-95, and time is short for this one. Looks like a good thump for N central and maybe NE MD this evening. Looks very meh here with maybe a brief period of snow at the end. I should have stuck to my original plan and chased lol. Still might.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Guess it was to be expected, but this system has pretty much morphed into a Fall line special (95 and N and W). Fully expect to see the death band to set up where we typically see it (PSU land hooking around S and W). Probably see 4-5 inches, with a jackpot or two of 6, through this region as we should see some 12-1+ ratio snow. There is one thing that could possibly knock these totals down somewhat. And that is if they were to lose some of this to low level warmth and rain considering that the precip comes in hot and heavy from the start. Really don't expect to see that except for maybe a few spritzes initially. Cities are probably good for an inch or two as well though they could surprise if we can limit the low level warmth before the onset.

The 6z gfs isn't done yet, but from the 0Z, the column for BWI looks pretty good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

28 here.

Trends on all guidance overnight and early this morning is a further north track, maybe outside of the Euro. It is cold now, but temps will warm today ahead of the developing low. With a further north/closer in track, the low level warmth will take longer to displace SE of I-95, and time is short for this one. Looks like a good thump for N central and maybe NE MD this evening. Looks very meh here with maybe a brief period of snow at the end. I should have stuck to my original plan and chased lol. Still might.

What!!! You aren't chasing? Bought the beer and had a guest room setup for you. Guess I will have to drink that quality and expensive beer on my own then. :devilsmiley:

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

First legit snow of the season here locally, I’m pumped; sticking with 1-2” here with amounts closer to an inch than two. We’ll hit the low 40s before precip kicks in and we wet bulb. I’m sure there will be lots of complaining posts but if you’re along/East of 95, set your expectations now to see a rain/snow mix at onset. Won’t be surprised a favored spot NW hits 5” but it’ll be very localized. 
 

ETA: got to a low of 31 even inside the Beltway south of the fall line so that’s encouraging. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

The 6z gfs isn't done yet, but from the 0Z, the column for BWI looks pretty good.

06Z looks a little rough. Looking 95, DC up to Balt, before onset we are seeing deeper low level warmth (Above 0, 925mb and down) vs what I saw on previous runs of between 975-950 mb. Sort of looks to me that it is taking the initial thump to cool the column down and by the time it does that the best lift has already exited the region. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, mappy said:

This is what I am expecting. They will decided by 10am, I’ll leave at noon and be on the couch and in pjs before 1pm ready for snow :lol:

That would be great, but elementary will be getting out right in the middle of it. I hope Fairfax Co closes early, but I still packed my gloves, scraper and brush last night. I work in HS. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Clouding up ahead of sunrise here. Hopefully can keep it colder by a degree or so...in marginal setups every bit counts along/East of 95. 

Hopefully. I'm skeptical given the direction the mesos and the hrrr are heading. You know this isnt my 'home' region but I enjoy contributing and conversating...but I'm 20 miles NW of Philly and sweating it up here. Another tick N or warmer BL and we're toast. Hoping forcing and heavy rates can give all of us a car topper at the very least. GL!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hopefully. I'm skeptical given the direction the mesos and the hrrr are heading. You know this isnt my 'home' region but I enjoy contributing and conversating...but I'm 20 miles NW of Philly and sweating it up here. Another tick N or warmer BL and we're toast. Hoping forcing and heavy rates can give all of us a car topper at the very least. GL!

People can say it sucks and I guess it does a lot, but the HRRR has been rock steady since yesterday on temps being too warm 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

People can say it sucks and I guess it does a lot, but the HRRR has been rock steady since yesterday on temps being too warm 

Didn’t it show the entire area not going below freezing last night? I thought that’s what I read

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, BristowWx said:

Didn’t it show the entire area not going below freezing last night? I thought that’s what I read

It had the typical colder pockets getting below freezing but yeah most areas without elevation were at or above freezing. It was correct for me...I haven’t been below 34. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

That would be great, but elementary will be getting out right in the middle of it. I hope Fairfax Co closes early, but I still packed my gloves, scraper and brush last night. I work in HS. 

A 3hr early dismissal would be 1230 for elementary kids. 2hr, 130 dismissal. Both reasonable I think given timing 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

It had the typical colder pockets getting below freezing but yeah most areas without elevation were at or above freezing. It was correct for me...I haven’t been below 34. 

I'm actually stunned my temp was below 32.  I never do that.  I UHI like Australia does wildfires 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...