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Rtd208

January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Great sign

The euro and gfs has been playing catchup all winter with the mjo.

Too many other things to fix IMO.   We will certainly see some snow chances but if you read Iso's update,  there's not much to get excited about if you're looking for anything cold/snowy sustained pattern

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

Too many other things to fix IMO.   We will certainly see some snow chances but if you read Iso's update,  there's not much to get excited about if you're looking for anything cold/snowy sustained pattern

 

He was only speaking about the MJO going into p8. Most here didn`t think it would go there, but you have the guidance, Timmy and Tom agreeing that we prob go into p8.

 

Can`t just stick that aside.

 

It`s not always about snow. 

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That certainly was an ugly 12z GFS run for long range. A shame that what looked like a flip to a sustained cold pattern about a week ago completely fell apart in the last few days. Long range is so difficult to predict. Thank goodness chances are increasing that we'll pick up a few inches of snow here on saturday. It looks like our last snow threat for quite awhile. Hopefully February will be good like some of the signs are pointing to.

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Read about what I posted on the MJO. Even phase 8 does not signal cold weather is imminent! It is only significantly correlated with increased storminess. That could still mean rain, or snow to rain. If timed correctly though could provide a storm, but again MJO really does not look like a huge player in the upcoming pattern.

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2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

That certainly was an ugly 12z GFS run for long range. A shame that what looked like a flip to a sustained cold pattern about a week ago completely fell apart in the last few days. Long range is so difficult to predict. Thank goodness chances are increasing that we'll pick up a few inches of snow here on saturday. It looks like our last snow threat for quite awhile. Hopefully February will be good like some of the signs are pointing to.

Boring run for sure-granted after day 6 it's all fantasy but it has 2 cutters the entire run after this weekend's cutter.  At least give us an exciting Southeaster or something....

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5 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Read about what I posted on the MJO. Even phase 8 does not signal cold weather is imminent! It is only significantly correlated with increased storminess. That could still mean rain, or snow to rain. 

 

This is your typical 500mb response to p8 in Feb.

 

It`s all you can ask for.

 

It does not have to guarantee snow, nothing does ,  but if you want a favorable 500 in Feb you want p8

 

Image result for mjo phase 8 in february

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13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Boring run for sure-granted after day 6 it's all fantasy but it has 2 cutters the entire run after this weekend's cutter.  At least give us an exciting Southeaster or something....

But it showed 30” through the end of the run for NYC 3 days ago :( 

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11 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

This is your typical 500mb response to p8 in Feb.

 

It`s all you can ask for.

 

It does not have to guarantee snow, nothing does ,  but if you want a favorable 500 in Feb you want p8

 

Image result for mjo phase 8 in february

I always enjoy your posts. The LR doesn’t look great on the GFS but there is still cold in between storms. What do you think are the chances one of those storms gives us significant snow?

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6 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

I always enjoy your posts. The LR doesn’t look great on the GFS but there is still cold in between storms. What do you think are the chances one of those storms gives us significant snow?

 

The GEM and GEFS keep this alive.

 

However all the LR guidance has been terrible so I would really wait this year for the surfaces to respond and be close to being believable.

 

But significant, I would hold off on that for now. 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-0061600  JAN 17 GEFS.png

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37 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

He was only speaking about the MJO going into p8. Most here didn`t think it would go there, but you have the guidance, Timmy and Tom agreeing that we prob go into p8.

 

Can`t just stick that aside.

 

It`s not always about snow. 

If we end up with less than 20" of seasonal snowfall it will be looked at as a bad winter regardless of how cold it gets- thats why we have bad memories of the 80s.

 

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Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah, not gonna work 

ecmwf_T850_neus_10.png

 

Now the Interior is close , it`s not always about NYC.

 

2 days ago it was Chicago 

 

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6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

No cold air.   (road trip to Maine?)

 

Did you bother to look at the surface map ? 

It`s in the 20`s in NYC at hour 216 

At 222 it`s plus 1 at 850 and - 1 at 925

This just went from a low to Chicago to one off the Delmarva with 8 days to go.

 

I would keep an eye on it, it`s different than what this was doing yesterday 

 

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

The mjo the last two years has been incredibly  frustrating. All we do well with it is amplitude in the warm phases. And when we do get favorable phases (ex feb 2019 and January 2020) we don’t get the response we are expecting. For some reason the mjo in cold phases during November has worked better lol.

 

Admittedly, I didn’t see how bad the pv was going to hurt us this winter. Once it continued to strengthen and couple with the atmosphere it was lights out. 

 

 

The expansion of the WP warm pool has been favoring the warmer MJO phases.

 

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14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

No cold air.   (road trip to Maine?)

 

15 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah, not gonna work 

ecmwf_T850_neus_10.png

Not the point. 

This was a lakes cutter

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12 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

Did you bother to look at the surface map ? 

 

It`s in the 20`s in NYC at hour 216 

on the canadian?  No it's in the 40's (edit-sorry I thought this was the CMC you were referencing-did not see the euro)

gem_T2m_neus_37.png

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Just now, Snow88 said:

 

Not the point. 

This was a lakes cutter

Agreed the models are all over the place. It’s a good sign that it’s closer that’s all we can look at right now

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The expansion of the WP warm pool has been favoring the warmer MJO phases.

 

 

 

Indeed. One can see the modeled tropical forcing returning to those spatial domains in February, which will play a role in the developing February regime as delineated in my update post.

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

on the canadian?  No it's in the 40's

gem_T2m_neus_37.png

 

Why are you posting GFS surface temps with a different evolution Euro, are you high ?

 

You posted no cold air, while the O line on the Euro is into NNJ and temps are in the mid 20`s in the HV LOL

 

Oh Brian 

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Just now, PB-99 said:

 

Why are you posting GFS surface temps with a different evolution Euro, are you high ?

 

You posted no cold air, while the O line on the Euro is into NNJ and temps are in the mid 20`s in the HV LOL

 

Oh Brian 

that "cold air" is rain back to JB and some ZR/Sleet in the Hudson Valley.      Better than yesterday too, but pattern still not anything to get excited about

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

that's not great either-awesome track yet's it's rain back to JB....

 

Dude, I said Hudson Valley vs a cutter to Chicago, you posted no cold air until Maine.

 

The Euro is in the 20`s N and W 

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19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

No cold air.   (road trip to Maine?)

These are posts that make this place look misinformed 

ecmwf-deterministic-ne-t2m_f-0126400 JAN 17 2 METER TEMPS.png

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4 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

Dude, I said Hudson Valley vs a cutter to Chicago, you posted no cold air until Maine.

 

The Euro is in the 20`s N and W 

you're putting lipstick on a pig---..and who cares anyway it's a 216 hr prog on an OP model.  

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that "cold air" is rain back to JB and some ZR/Sleet in the Hudson Valley.      Better than yesterday too, but pattern still not anything to get excited about

It's a day 9/10 system, why are we even arguing about temps. 

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