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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Impressive CONUS warmth for the 1st half of meteorological winter.

 

2015-2016 december and january were torches worse then this winter then we had the blizzard which saved that winter..

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Day 9 / 10 threats come and go but this has been a period that really bares watching.

The ridge over H/B argues for anything that tries to cut should die and a secondary should come up off OBX.

It is the 1st period inside the pattern change that should be " watched " but do not be surprised if there`s more than one threat rolling out of the S Branch with those high heights over

Hudson Bay. 

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-0018400 JAN 16 MILLER A.png

 

 

 

1125736092_gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-0083200JAN16GEFS.png.e59b040beef41751666a61b42b861249.png

 

 

 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

So 06-07 was warmer. 13 years ago

 

We shall see.

Dec 2006 was 43.6 but December 2019 was 38.8

January 2007 was 37.5, so far this January is 42.7.

I'd call it a draw right now.

December 2015 was an unprecedented 50.8 which was close to the average temperature for April.

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10 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

So 06-07 was warmer. 13 years ago

 

We get crazy anomalies now and then. The Jan monthly record has yet to be topped and I believe it occured in the 1930s. 

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1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

We shall see.

Dec 2006 was 43.6 but December 2015 was an unprecedented 50.8 which was close to the average temperature for April.

January 2007 was 37.5, so far this January is 42.7.

I'd call it a draw right now.

what's impressive is that Dec '19 had a cold first 3 weeks, so most of the warmth was in 4 weeks....

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

what's impressive is that Dec '19 had a cold first 3 weeks, so most of the warmth was in 4 weeks....

Good point

8 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

We shall see.

Dec 2006 was 43.6 but December 2019 was 38.8

January 2007 was 37.5, so far this January is 42.7.

I'd call it a draw right now.

December 2015 was an unprecedented 50.8 which was close to the average temperature for April.

 

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p7 and p8 will argue for the trough to be forced into the SE as we roll into Feb. 

If you can get the ridge to stick around in Canada, you are really going to be in business.

The 12z GEFS has roughly 3 to 4 SWs coming under the block over the next 15. 

Huge oppo. 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

We're at the halfway mark for January and NYC is currently 10.2° above normal for the month, Poughkeepsie is 11.9° above normal, Trenton is 11.4° above and Albany is a ridiculous 14.6° above normal.

Nightmare flashbacks to December 2015, not quite as bad but getting close.

Dec 2015 is safely the most absurd month imo. It never went below freezing in the city. Its insane to get though Dec without getting down to 32 for even a few mins. If it was Nov it still would be considered a warm month. Despite lacking the drama or destructiveness of a major storm, taken as a whole, Dec 2015 to me is one the most remarkable weather events in our history.

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1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Heavy snow/sleet in Manhattan right now. Looks like it’ll last for ten-fifteen minutes

I forgot about the risk for squalls today

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

Christ.   That won't bring anything wintry....

the next day looks even...redder, lol.   We will see what happens.  Seems like a large change

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2 minutes ago, frankdp23 said:

the next day looks even...redder, lol.   We will see what happens.  Seems like a large change

Ouch.  If we can't hold onto the cold beyond a few days, we're in trouble (and even the cold next few days into early next week is not anything that's crazy for Jan) Last Jan had some short lived but much more impressive cold.

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18 minutes ago, dWave said:

Dec 2015 is safely the most absurd month imo. It never went below freezing in the city. Its insane to get though Dec without getting down to 32 for even a few mins. If it was Nov it still would be considered a warm month. Despite lacking the drama or destructiveness of a major storm, taken as a whole, Dec 2015 to me is one the most remarkable weather events in our history.

December 2015 would have tied 1999 as the 9th warmest November on record.

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20 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

pattern change

ecmwf_T850a_namer_9.png

since 2008-2009 winter.. we have had over 20 inches in central park every year.. and many years more than that by a lot.. except for the 2011-2012 winter season..

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Isn’t that a pretty good look for a pattern change?  That’s the start of a disrupted polar vortex

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Just now, nycwinter said:

since 2008-2009 winter.. we have had over 20 inches in central park except for the 2011-2012 winter season..

what was last year?  Had to be very close to 20 then. 

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1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

2015-2016 december and january were torches worse then this winter then we had the blizzard which saved that winter..

January wasn't that far from normal IIRC. December was a horrendous torch, however.

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