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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yep. That’s not a good look in the 11-15 day. The goa low would move into ak. Let’s hope that’s not correct. We have seen the 11-15 day just change. 

An AK vortex would be the kiss of death for February, it doesn’t get any uglier than an AK vortex

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Good post by Ryan Maue about the pile of garbage models have been this winter:

I'm taking even more interest in Weekly weather forecasting since much of it lately is awful. Forecasters have strong biases that aren't rectified leading to repeated busts. So, is winter canceled or not?

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31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

An AK vortex would be the kiss of death for February, it doesn’t get any uglier than an AK vortex

Yep. Let’s hope its misplaced and we keep it by the Aleutians. It could be because the euro is looping the mjo back to 6. Which imo is bogus but I honestly don’t know anymore. It is what it is at this point 

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Good post by Ryan Maue about the pile of garbage models have been this winter:

I'm taking even more interest in Weekly weather forecasting since much of it lately is awful. Forecasters have strong biases that aren't rectified leading to repeated busts. So, is winter canceled or not?

The ensembles were never particularly great day 11+. It may just be that they are getting posted more with the rise of social media. So they are now coming under greater scrutiny.

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Yep. Let’s hope its misplaced and we keep it by the Aleutians. It could be because the euro is looping the mjo back to 6. Which imo is bogus but I honestly don’t know anymore. It is what it is at this point 

Anything beyond a certain time frame should always be taken with a grain of salt. 

And given how crappy the winter has gone it could only go up from here. 

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

An AK vortex would be the kiss of death for February, it doesn’t get any uglier than an AK vortex

I don’t think it will stay there. To me it’s a transient look as the vortex traverses AK as an epo ridge establishes itself. That’s my guess given what the trop pac forcing looks like week 2.  It looks ominous simply because it’s at the end and so we can’t “see past it”.

 But just because we dont get a dumpster fire pattern doesn’t automatically mean we get a great one either.  But I don’t think it’s heading towards a permanent AK vortex pac puke pattern  

Before that I don’t share either extreme view. We likely get warm after the cold shot next week as the Hudson Ridge drifts too far south and temporarily links up with the mid latitude ridge.  But there are ways the look could reasonably shift and suddenly be better. 

If the ocean storm next week were to phase with the NS and pull up into a 50/50.  Or another yet unseen vort bombs into that space. The wave break from such pumps the ridge over the top and suddenly we get the colder look of some sporadic runs recently.  It’s unlikeky but it’s one rather insignificant change in the longwave pattern that has a drastic effect.  Another option is the day 10 storm helps to knock down the ridge to our northeast and sets the table for a threat day 12-15.  There are ways to avoid a disaster within the look we are getting.  But it will involve some luck.  It’s flawed but not no hope.  

 

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22 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Ok thanks! Enjoy your summer!!!!! 

He isn’t wrong though. If it did set up there more than a few days...barring a dramatic flip in the NAO, it would flood the CONUS with maritime pacific air and we would be in big trouble. But I don’t think that’s where the pattern is going right now. It looks transient imo. But if it’s not...

When people make conditional statements that’s not the same as them making a predictor. He didn’t say February is screwed. He simply stated a fact that “if” the vortex sets up over AK “then” February is screwed. It’s a conditional statement and it’s accurate. 

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You can WYA with the rest of this month.     The 06Z GFS  this morning averaged 20.1* for the rest of January, and the 18Z GFS averages 28.9*.      This is what a CAD program spits out when the physics package is turned off-------a cartoon for kiddies.        Snow totals went from 24" to just 1" more this month.     With the Jan. 31 threat you can take the aforementioned WYA and wipe your nose with it.

Official forecast is AN for remainder of month.          'SE Trough' still getting crushed.    

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

 

2020011612_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGR

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t think it will stay there. To me it’s a transient look as the vortex traverses AK as an epo ridge establishes itself. That’s my guess given what the trop pac forcing looks like week 2.  It looks ominous simply because it’s at the end and so we can’t “see past it”.

 But just because we dont get a dumpster fire pattern doesn’t automatically mean we get a great one either.  But I don’t think it’s heading towards a permanent AK vortex pac puke pattern  

Before that I don’t share either extreme view. We likely get warm after the cold shot next week as the Hudson Ridge drifts too far south and temporarily links up with the mid latitude ridge.  But there are ways the look could reasonably shift and suddenly be better. 

If the ocean storm next week were to phase with the NS and pull up into a 50/50.  Or another yet unseen vort bombs into that space. The wave break from such pumps the ridge over the top and suddenly we get the colder look of some sporadic runs recently.  It’s unlikeky but it’s one rather insignificant change in the longwave pattern that has a drastic effect.  Another option is the day 10 storm helps to knock down the ridge to our northeast and sets the table for a threat day 12-15.  There are ways to avoid a disaster within the look we are getting.  But it will involve some luck.  It’s flawed but not no hope.  

 

Great to see you post here. Yeah at the  end of the eps the vortex looks to be setting up shop. The weeklies have this weakening and Being replaced with a ridge. It would be best to see this low sit in the Aleutians instead of moving into ak. 
 

I know the euro is looping back to p6 on the rmm plots. I wonder if this is the reason we are seeing such swings in the northern pacific. The AAM spike is also playing a role in pushing the ridge into central Canada. 
 

On the roundy plots you can see a kelvin wave in p6. Imo this is why the euro is looping back into p6. I think as we get closer to the end of January you will see it correct into p8. Looks like by mid February the mjo wave dies in 8 and rots in cod. Perhaps then climo nino will take over. The weeklies do look good to start February and have a -nao look to start March lol. 

 

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Gusty winds ushered a colder air mass into the region. As the colder air arrived, parts of the region saw some rain and snow showers. Tomorrow will be much colder than today.
 
The temperature could even fall into the teens in New York City on Saturday morning. Afterward, even as moderation should follow for a time, the cold will likely return during the closing week of the month. At that point, the cold could become sustained and it could continue into at least the first week of February.

On Saturday a system could bring New York City and Newark its first measurable snowfall since January 6. Philadelphia could receive its first measurable snowfall since December 11.

Snowfall estimates for select locations are:

Albany: 3"-6"
Binghamton: 3"-6"
Boston: 2"-4"
Bridgeport: 1"-3"
Islip: 2" or less
New York City: 1"-3"
Newark: 1"-3"
Philadelphia: 2" or less
Poughkeepsie: 3"-6"
Scranton: 3"-6"

With a mean temperature of 42.7° during January 1-15, 2020 ranked as the 6th warmest such period on record in New York City. Since 1869, just 2/13 (15%) cases (2000 and 2005) that saw the temperature average 40.0° or above during January 1-15 went on to have a colder than normal January. The mean monthly temperature for those 13 cases was 37.2°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around January 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was -13.00 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.445.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 24. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. 

On January 15, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 3.048 (RMM). The January 14-adjusted amplitude was 3.240.

Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8.

Further, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.273 on January 7 with an AO of +4.048. Since 1974, there were three January cases when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above and an AO of +3.000 or above. In all three cases the Week 3-4 period was colder than the Week 1-2 period (smallest change: 2.7° in 1993; largest change 16.8° in 2007). The change in 14-day average temperatures from the above three cases would imply a January 22-February 3 mean temperature of 10°-12° below the January 8-21 mean temperature in New York City. This data implies that the latter two week period as a whole would be colder than normal overall.

However, uncertainty about the extended range has recently increased. The mean 500 mb pattern forecast for the closing 5 days of January on the January 16, 2020 12z and 18z GEFS has some similarities to the February 1-10, 1992 pattern in the Northern Hemisphere. February 1-10, 1992 was colder than normal in the East, but the remainder of February was warmer to much warmer than normal across much of the CONUS. Although such an outcome is not yet the most likely one, the probability of such a scenario could increase should ENSO Region 1+2 warm during the closing half of January.

In addition, an MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above typically sees measurable snowfall consistent with overall January 16-31 climatology. That would imply approximately 2 measurable snow events for Philadelphia to New York City and 2-3 such events for Boston during the closing two weeks of January. The first such event should occur this coming weekend.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 89% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 36.0° in New York City.

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The ensembles were never particularly great day 11+. It may just be that they are getting posted more with the rise of social media. So they are now coming under greater scrutiny.

Absolutely agree.  To borrow an investing phrase, people are "reaching for yield" because the shorter-term forecasts are brutal for snow chances, and we're looking into less-reliable products hoping for hope.

Also since this is the general OBS thread I'd like to OBS that it's brutally cold outside and my body is not ready because I was hiking in shorts last weekend and I have no idea what's going on anymore.

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Below are the 500 mb maps (GEFS forecast and February 1-10, 1992):

Feb1-10-1992.jpg

During February 1-10, 1992 the MJO was in Phase 1 (low amplitude by February 4). By February 12, it moved into Phase 4, quickly attaining an amplitude of 1.000 or above. For much of the rest of the month, it was locked between Phases 4 and 5.

The February 1-15 mean temperature in New York City was 30.9° and in Philadelphia it was 32.5°. The February 16-29 mean temperature in New York City was 42.2° and in Philadelphia it was 42.9°.

For now, this outcome should be seen as a potential alternative scenario should a colder pattern fail to take hold. The evolution of the teleconnections and progression of the MJO will provide insight.

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14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Below are the 500 mb maps (GEFS forecast and February 1-10, 1992):

Feb1-10-1992.jpg

During February 1-10, 1992 the MJO was in Phase 1 (low amplitude by February 4). By February 12, it moved into Phase 4, quickly attaining an amplitude of 1.000 or above. For much of the rest of the month, it was locked between Phases 4 and 5.

The February 1-15 mean temperature in New York City was 30.9° and in Philadelphia it was 32.5°. The February 16-29 mean temperature in New York City was 42.2° and in Philadelphia it was 42.9°.

For now, this outcome should be seen as a potential alternative scenario should a colder pattern fail to take hold. The evolution of the teleconnections and progression of the MJO will provide insight.

If I remember correctly, March was quite snowy (unless that was 91).

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes, March 1992 was snowy (9.4” in NYC).

Would fit the cold/snowy March pattern we've been in. Also Feb's have pretty much roasted after 2015. 

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The next 8 days are averaging 31.5degs., or about 0.5deg. BN.

Month to date is  +10.1[42.6].         Should be about  +6.5[38.9] by the 25th.

25* here at 6am.   23* at 7am.     22* at 8am.     23* at 9am.     26* by Noon.     27* at 1pm.     29* at 3pm.   28* by 6pm.

All models are 2"-3" on Saturday.       Enjoy.   Rest of January is zippo and T is about 34degs., or 2degs. AN.    That is about 14 degs. higher than predicted yesterday.

Expect more talk on how great February will be.

Expect some locale in the general area to have another +40 degree day between 1/25---02/02.     Model looks sunburned.

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12 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Great to see you post here. Yeah at the  end of the eps the vortex looks to be setting up shop. The weeklies have this weakening and Being replaced with a ridge. It would be best to see this low sit in the Aleutians instead of moving into ak. 
 

I know the euro is looping back to p6 on the rmm plots. I wonder if this is the reason we are seeing such swings in the northern pacific. The AAM spike is also playing a role in pushing the ridge into central Canada. 
 

On the roundy plots you can see a kelvin wave in p6. Imo this is why the euro is looping back into p6. I think as we get closer to the end of January you will see it correct into p8. Looks like by mid February the mjo wave dies in 8 and rots in cod. Perhaps then climo nino will take over. The weeklies do look good to start February and have a -nao look to start March lol. 

 

I think that there is also another wild card. We keep seeing that ridge build over the warm pool around Hawaii. Very tough to get the ridge into Alaska with that feature there. I mentioned the ridge pull back that we normally see in an El Niño February the other day. I just hope that this more Niña-like feature doesn’t interfere.

897C2E3D-B974-4B8F-AAE7-E305FA12A58A.thumb.png.c998179df04ce474497429d63bc02985.png

EA11FF83-9112-4865-BF5F-C20E3DA14872.png.a33dc1b643e0cbd1473a7108ebf9b328.png

B70E7C6D-86A0-449D-AFD8-A4E9F306AE2C.png.6f1dcc15aebf9d1c8a4baf8e793abbce.png

 

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Need a wholesale pattern reshuffle...not sure that's in the cards this year-Strong PV over the pole, No Atlantic help, Pacific is terrible and we have a strong PAC jet.     I'm sure we'll see cooldowns like we're having now and maybe a minor to moderate snow event here and there (hopefully), but I think it's about time to toss in the towel for anything sustained for a while.   

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Need a wholesale pattern reshuffle...not sure that's in the cards this year-Strong PV over the pole, No Atlantic help, Pacific is terrible and we have a strong PAC jet.     I'm sure we'll see cooldowns like we're having now and maybe a minor to moderate snow event here and there (hopefully), but I think it's about time to toss in the towel for anything sustained for a while.   

Transient cold shots with brief windows for some snow like tomorrow, 2 to 4 with up to 6 NW of 287 is a good event, immediate coast and Long Island are not as fortunate

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Long range forecasts shouldnt be predicted anymore. Everyone was getting excited about a possible pattern change at the end of this month because of a pattern modeled over 240 hours out.

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13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Need a wholesale pattern reshuffle...not sure that's in the cards this year-Strong PV over the pole, No Atlantic help, Pacific is terrible and we have a strong PAC jet.     I'm sure we'll see cooldowns like we're having now and maybe a minor to moderate snow event here and there (hopefully), but I think it's about time to toss in the towel for anything sustained for a while.   

Yeah everytime there's promise it keeps getting pulled back.

Even the current cold shot is much less severe than initially expected and then we're back in the 40s and 50s next week. 

I should've stuck with my late Feb to March winter comeback prediction because so far everything has gone just as bad as last season (worse in fact).

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Just now, Snow88 said:

Long range forecasts shouldnt be predicted anymore. Everyone was getting excited about a possible pattern change at the end of this month because of a pattern modeled over 240 hours out.

88 I have to give you your props as anyone who knows me will tell you how I love weather and specifically SNOW but you blow my optimism out of the water. That said I know we still have a long way to go with winter and we have this little system to deal with on Saturday BUT BUT BUT I can say that IF he pattern does NOT change and we do NOT get a full fledged snowstorm the end of next week then I will be throwing in the towel. I get it that there will still be oceans of time but last year burnt us this year won;'t burn me I will be in full bring in SPRING mode lets open the pool and play some baseball ! That said can we get some freaking snow tomorrow !!!!!!

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15 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Long range forecasts shouldnt be predicted anymore. Everyone was getting excited about a possible pattern change at the end of this month because of a pattern modeled over 240 hours out.

Like Bluewave said-the 11-15 day range is not all that accurate, it gets more play these days with the rise of social media.

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13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah everytime there's promise it keeps getting pulled back.

Even the current cold shot is much less severe than initially expected and then we're back in the 40s and 50s next week. 

I should've stuck with my late Feb to March winter comeback prediction because so far everything has gone just as bad as last season (worse in fact).

It's not all that different from last year.  (it's actually warmer)  The same issues exist.  Locked in poor pattern with no sign of an end

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24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Need a wholesale pattern reshuffle...not sure that's in the cards this year-Strong PV over the pole, No Atlantic help, Pacific is terrible and we have a strong PAC jet.     I'm sure we'll see cooldowns like we're having now and maybe a minor to moderate snow event here and there (hopefully), but I think it's about time to toss in the towel for anything sustained for a while.   

It's one of those winters where that PV spins and occasionally a cold lobe rolls over and the cold enough part of it reaches this far south. If it happens to be placed right and finds some moisture at the right moment we get snow. I think it's about a 50/50 chance whether it's timed right and we go white or it's off slightly and we get wet. 

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21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Like Bluewave said-the 11-15 day range is not all that accurate, it gets more play these days with the rise of social media.

Exactly 

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