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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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14 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I know this well. But the flood from Michael was the worst in recorded history in Danville according to the USGS gage. 

Of course. Because the path of the center

There was very significant tropical SE(upslope) flow against the Blue Ridge.  And heavy rains over the Piedmont.  The water didn't have no where to go.

From personal experience. Danville and South Boston I've seen  alot of Debris in that river. In the from of branches and log jams too. So that could be another factor. 

 

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And early dismissal called for DPS, good call, even though winds and antecedent conditions not like Michael, this kinda rain with the upstream reports make for a scary looking day. 

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11 minutes ago, rowjimmy73 said:

And early dismissal called for DPS, good call, even though winds and antecedent conditions not like Michael, this kinda rain with the upstream reports make for a scary looking day. 

If you get too much rain....row jimmy row!

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WPC Excessive Rainfall Discussion...

...Southeast...
Widespread heavy rainfall is expected today across much of the Southeast with impressive moisture parameters in place. Both PWs (Precipitable Water) and IVT (Integrated Water Vapor Transport) are around maximum values for early February over the entire Southeast (it is quite impressive to see such a large geographic area with around record values). Thus it seems fair to say that from a moisture and moisture transport perspective you will not see a better setup this time of year than what this event will have to work with.

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On 1/31/2020 at 1:06 PM, bargainmusic said:

Getting a mix of snow & rain on Stratford Road right this minute. Hoping for a change to all snow shortly!

3K NAM showing snow Saturday night

floop-nam4km-2020020612.ref1km_ptype.us_ma.gif

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3 hours ago, burrel2 said:

Hi Res Nam says winter starts on Saturday for us Mack! 

Don't bite burrel, don't let it suck you in. Stand strong my man. :lol:

Actually would be nice to see, just not sure snow can fall twice for us (instead of lightning stricking twice!). 

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I know no one wants to believe it, but the 3K Nam, ICON and GFS show a decent snow event, not 5 days+ out, but tomorrow for NE Ga and the Upstate of SC (mostly mountains unless you truly believe the NAM). At worst, this looks interesting and some could get a nice little surprise. Seems the models juiced up the system on overnight runs.

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7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I know no one wants to believe it, but the 3K Nam, ICON and GFS show a decent snow event, not 5 days+ out, but tomorrow for NE Ga and the Upstate of SC (mostly mountains unless you truly believe the NAM). At worst, this looks interesting and some could get a nice little surprise. Seems the models juiced up the system on overnight runs.

Well I am watching. Most snows here, at least, are not modeled or forecasted a week in advance. They pop up a day or two away or come out of the blue. Fingers are crossed lol

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34 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Yeah...for a cold rain. 

Thermal profiles are all snow for the northern upstate. Boundary layer will make it difficult to stick. But if we get any appreciable precip I expect it to fall as snow tomorrow. 

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56 minutes ago, NEGa said:

Well I am watching. Most snows here, at least, are not modeled or forecasted a week in advance. They pop up a day or two away or come out of the blue. Fingers are crossed lol

Yep..its weird honestly how that is usually the case.

50 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Thermal profiles are all snow for the northern upstate. Boundary layer will make it difficult to stick. But if we get any appreciable precip I expect it to fall as snow tomorrow. 

Models insist most of it is just north of here but I think its mostly snow as far south as here per soundings...assuming it doesnt arrive too late where surface temps are a problem. Hrrr as usual is too warm at the surface if there is as much precip as advertised. . Regardless it's close enough to drive too regardless. High resolution models showing some pretty decent returns on composite imagery some decent rates arent out of the question. Other than the mountains atlanta to Gainesville could be the winner as it arrives early enough for temps to be near freezing.

Could just the nam naming us but the 12z 12 and 3km run showing up to 0.30 liquid now. 

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12z 3km NAM absolutely jackpots the Lake Lanier area. Looks like 1-3 inches could fall there tomorrow morning. Somebody should start the thread??

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Parents have a house up there on the north end of Lake Lanier in Gainesville. May have to make the trip up tonight. Models last night had me interested, seems like it's game on. Not expecting a whole lot but could be some real pretty scenery. 

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18 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

12z 3km NAM absolutely jackpots the Lake Lanier area. Looks like 1-3 inches could fall there tomorrow morning. Somebody should start the thread??

Just looks like it's coming through at the absolute worst time of day for the upstate. Needs to be early morning or something. 

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57 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

12z 3km NAM absolutely jackpots the Lake Lanier area. Looks like 1-3 inches could fall there tomorrow morning. Somebody should start the thread??

Can you post that NAM ?

 

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