• Member Statistics

    16,055
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LostInSomers
    Newest Member
    LostInSomers
    Joined
jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

Recommended Posts

I hear you. Had the full court press to turn in the AC last night. Could not do it on principle.


. Pro
As long as you never turn on the heat, you can generally get the house cool enough that it will stay semi-comfortable without AC except in extended blowtorch patterns.

Truth be told-- heat is optional in our area of the country - AC is not (if you still want to be productive).

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

The indices today still look terrible. 

PNA - Still looks to go negative

AO/NAO - Stays strongly positive

EPO - Stays positive

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

4indices.png

Hopefully things turn around at the end of this month. 

 

Still plenty of time

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Still plenty of time

Yeah, we've seen many years where our first storm comes at the end of January; and then many more where (Fab)February saves us. I wasn't worried going up to Christmas (December usually doesn't produce anyways), but I would be lying by saying I wasn't worried about losing most of January.   

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Actually looks like a weak Southern wave, that timeframe has been kind of hinted at for the past 3-4 days on GFS

Huge difference between GFS & Canadian at the surface and h5.

Gfs just looks weird on the 12z, almost fropa.

Weak wave develops along the front. Chances are it will be gone by 18z.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, FallsLake said:

The indices today still look terrible. 

PNA - Still looks to go negative

AO/NAO - Stays strongly positive

EPO - Stays positive

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

4indices.png

Hopefully things turn around at the end of this month. 

 

One would think that eventually, just on the laws of probability and statistics, or even just "chance" we could get some legitimate winter time with the indeces in our favor. It seems like the patterns we want are just out of step right now. Maybe in a few years the timing will have changed a bit and we'll start to see them (especially -NOA) better aling with winter instead of summer? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

One would think that eventually, just on the laws of probability and statistics, or even just "chance" we could get some legitimate winter time with the indeces in our favor. It seems like the patterns we want are just out of step right now. Maybe in a few years the timing will have changed a bit and we'll start to see them (especially -NOA) better aling with winter instead of summer? 

I keep thinking what goes up must come down (and vice versa). So with all the indices current in an unfavorable state, you would think a strong reversal is in order at the end of this month.

Also, I've read that in cold winters there is usually a mid winter thaw (a relaxing of the predominate pattern). This also applies to warm winters where a mid winter cold period usually occurs. If I'm correct, I think 2000 was an overall warm winter and we ended up getting this (at mid winter):

 

jjjj.jpg

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

I keep thinking what goes up must come down (and vice versa). So with all the indices current in an unfavorable state, you would think a strong reversal is in order at the end of this month.

Also, I've read that in cold winters there is usually a mid winter thaw (a relaxing of the predominate pattern). This also applies to warm winters where a mid winter cold period usually occurs. If I'm correct, I think 2000 was an overall warm winter and we ended up getting this (at mid winter):

 

jjjj.jpg

And before that, we had a decent little event in the western part of the state.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

I keep thinking what goes up must come down (and vice versa). So with all the indices current in an unfavorable state, you would think a strong reversal is in order at the end of this month.

Also, I've read that in cold winters there is usually a mid winter thaw (a relaxing of the predominate pattern). This also applies to warm winters where a mid winter cold period usually occurs. If I'm correct, I think 2000 was an overall warm winter and we ended up getting this (at mid winter):

 

jjjj.jpg

For that storm in 2000 it was decidedly balmy a couple weeks prior in January as I was raking leaves in the backyard and recall napping in a chair on the deck w/o getting even chilly.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

And before that, we had a decent little event in the western part of the state.

Yep.. actually it was quite a favorable pattern for a couple of weeks prior.  Remember getting 2-3" in Statesville around the middle of the month which slightly tampered the horror of Jan 25 while watching everyone south and east of me get hammered.  Never saw a single flurry that day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, Wow said:

Yep.. actually it was quite a favorable pattern for a couple of weeks prior.  Remember getting 2-3" in Statesville around the middle of the month which slightly tampered the horror of Jan 25 while watching everyone south and east of me get hammered.  Never saw a single flurry that day.

We got stuck on Saluda Mountain that afternoon. We eventually got down 26 but it was a close call. 
 

1/25/00 was basically a non event in my backyard as well. At most, a couple inches.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What a mess in the long range.  All features are still basically opposite of what we want.  How does that even happen all the time now?  MJO looks like a disaster going into phase 5.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some timing differences on the Canadian and NC could see some snowfall from the UL. If it comes in later. Slow it up about 8 hours early Monday morning instead of Sunday evening. 

Map below is roughly 7pm. Temps in the 40s west 50s east. Good snow for the mountains. gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Man, January is not looking good. Most LR models / indices give us little hope through mid month. I hate having access to the CFS model on the Pivotal site. It would indicate all of January is toast; and if you extrapolated, at least the first week of February is lost. But I (we) should know it'll show a different solution within the next few runs (hopefully).

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2020010106&fh=6&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Don’t sleep on the 7th! GFS is still interesting on 12z! Cold looks about as good as we can get, moisture is around...

I was just looking at that, worth keeping an eye on it.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.