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wdrag

Dec 16-17, 2019 snow-sleet glaze OBSERVATIONS ONLY

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

This storm bust for alot of areas

88 chin up we will get em next time winter is just beginning. This storm defiantly impacted areas but I agree it was not as bad as advertised for some including my area in New City but thats a good thing as IMO we dodged a bullet and I will take it. My yard and my grass is all white and very glazed over my cars in the driveway were in ice cocoons and the driveway itself was an ice skating rink, kids had 2 hour delays so they were loving that. I love snow but hate ice so I will take this one and be happy that we did not lose power or have bad issues, its a long winter buddy hang in there we will get ours its only a matter of time we are just getting started .:sled:

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I was surprised to see JFK hang onto freezing rain longer than LGA and EWR. I think the high may have been placed just right to drain cold air down the island. Most of the UHI had a wind off the relatively warmer sound. Subtle trajectory differences and terrain obviously played a factor, too.

SPECI KJFK 170943Z 04010KT 7SM -RA BKN009 OVC023 01/00 A3000 RMK RAB42FZRAE42 P0004 T00060000
METAR KJFK 170851Z 05010KT 7SM -FZRA BKN009 OVC023 00/00 A3003 RMK SLP169 P0005 60023 T00000000 56031
SPECI KJFK 170843Z 06009KT 7SM -FZRA BKN009 OVC025 00/00 A3004 RMK P0005 T00000000
KJFK 170751Z 06013KT 7SM -FZRA FEW005 OVC019 00/M01 A3005 RMK SLP174 P0011 T00001006
KJFK 170651Z COR 06011KT 6SM -FZRA BR FEW006 BKN025 OVC075 00/M01 A3010 RMK RAE30FZRAB30 SLP191 P0007 T00001006
SPECI KJFK 170630Z 07008KT 6SM -FZRA BR FEW006 OVC022 00/M01 A3012 RMK RAE30FZRAB30 P0003 T00001006
METAR KJFK 170551Z 06006KT 6SM -RA BR FEW006 BKN023 OVC035 01/00 A3012 RMK RAE11B49FZRAB11E49 SLP200 931000 P0008 60030 T00060000 10022 20000 58024
SPECI KJFK 170511Z 04005KT 6SM -FZRA BR FEW006 OVC024 00/M01 A3015 RMK RAE11FZRAB11 P0001 T00001006
METAR KJFK 170451Z 06006KT 6SM RA BR FEW009 OVC026 01/M01 A3015 RMK RAB36FZRAE36PLE50 SLP210 P0011 T00061011 401220000
SPECI KJFK 170437Z 07005KT 6SM RAPL BR FEW009 OVC028 01/M01 A3016 RMK RAB36FZRAE36 P0007 T00061011
METAR KJFK 170430Z AUTO 08005KT 8SM -FZRA -PL OVC036 01/M01 A3017 RMK P0006
METAR KJFK 170425Z AUTO 07005KT 8SM -FZRA -PL OVC036 01/M01 A3017 RMK P0005
METAR KJFK 170351Z 07004KT 9SM -FZRAPL OVC034 01/M01 A3018 RMK AO2 RAE51FZRAB51 SLP219 P0004 T00061011
METAR KJFK 170350Z AUTO 07004KT 9SM -RA -PL OVC034 01/M01 A3018 RMK P0004
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33 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Interesting that temps busted high for you, and low out here. Would love to better understand how that occurred 

Surface temps busted by 2-3 degrees. Was expecting 20's overnight and instead we stayed right around 30-31. We warmed aloft quicker than I anticipated. Thought for sure we would have a solid few hours of moderate snow last night before any changeover. I have some elevation so I am actually closer to the mid-level warming if you think about it.

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4 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

88 chin up we will get em next time winter is just beginning. This storm defiantly impacted areas but I agree it was not as bad as advertised for some including my area in New City but thats a good thing as IMO we dodged a bullet and I will take it. My yard and my grass is all white and very glazed over my cars in the driveway were in ice cocoons and the driveway itself was an ice skating rink, kids had 2 hour delays so they were loving that. I love snow but hate ice so I will take this one and be happy that we did not lose power or have bad issues, its a long winter buddy hang in there we will get ours its only a matter of time we are just getting started .:sled:

56 days until pitchers and catchers report. 62 days until Presidents Day which I mark as the unofficial end to the heart of Winter/Snow season. With that being said, the last two Winters have been very back loaded.

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10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

56 days until pitchers and catchers report. 62 days until Presidents Day which I mark as the unofficial end to the heart of Winter/Snow season. With that being said, the last two Winters have been very back loaded.

NJX I am right there with you especially since the Yankees landed Cole but that said we have OCEANS of time until the Boys Of Summer are at it and hopefully we get to track and see a big snowstorm or 5 in these parts before we PLAY BALL!!!!

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This is a good signature for significant turbulence and compression on the JFK TWDR. NE winds near 10KT at the surface and SW winds 50KT+ at 4000 feet.  This wind difference often slows down air traffic into the NY metro airports. A 767 reported severe turbulence coming into JFK earlier this morning.

 FL040_121719.thumb.png.dea61733d0c93ccf272174eae08e6ffd.png

RGEM forecast soundings valid at 15Z show what would be a nice hodograph if there were surface based instability.

RGEM_JFK_15Z.thumb.png.fd4236fa2e669d7e46aee491d1035d19.png

 

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Not that it's going to make a large difference one way or another but winds have flipped to out of the Northeast and temperatures have begun to cool again. Temperature sitting at 30 degrees with light freezing rain continuing.

You can see the slight sag in the isobars to our N  & NE indicative of some CAD on mesoanalysis.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Bronx, NY: 32° with freezing rain

Bronx12172019.jpg

Wow wheres that? I saw nothing like that, at least when I left at 730am. Looks like in one of the large Parks like Van Courtlandt?

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Sleet and freezing rain mixed in Putnam County.  There's some pretty good icing in the hills.  Main roads were plastered with salt before and during the precip. so they are just wet.  The GFS or even a model consensus worked out pretty well up here.  What threw people off was the shift towards an initial burst of snow over the last 24-36 hours and the very high EPS snow probs.  Soundings consistently showed a 3hr window or less to accumulate snow.  After that all guidance showed freezing rain with some sleet.  This can't really be a model bust if the outcome was within the model envelope.  Forecasters hedged towards the ECM on snow accum. and the GFS was more right this time.  It was a minor forecasting bust but one that would have been very difficult to avoid.

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1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

I was surprised to see JFK hang onto freezing rain longer than LGA and EWR. I think the high may have been placed just right to drain cold air down the island. Most of the UHI had a wind off the relatively warmer sound. Subtle trajectory differences and terrain obviously played a factor, too.

SPECI KJFK 170943Z 04010KT 7SM -RA BKN009 OVC023 01/00 A3000 RMK RAB42FZRAE42 P0004 T00060000
METAR KJFK 170851Z 05010KT 7SM -FZRA BKN009 OVC023 00/00 A3003 RMK SLP169 P0005 60023 T00000000 56031
SPECI KJFK 170843Z 06009KT 7SM -FZRA BKN009 OVC025 00/00 A3004 RMK P0005 T00000000
KJFK 170751Z 06013KT 7SM -FZRA FEW005 OVC019 00/M01 A3005 RMK SLP174 P0011 T00001006
KJFK 170651Z COR 06011KT 6SM -FZRA BR FEW006 BKN025 OVC075 00/M01 A3010 RMK RAE30FZRAB30 SLP191 P0007 T00001006
SPECI KJFK 170630Z 07008KT 6SM -FZRA BR FEW006 OVC022 00/M01 A3012 RMK RAE30FZRAB30 P0003 T00001006
METAR KJFK 170551Z 06006KT 6SM -RA BR FEW006 BKN023 OVC035 01/00 A3012 RMK RAE11B49FZRAB11E49 SLP200 931000 P0008 60030 T00060000 10022 20000 58024
SPECI KJFK 170511Z 04005KT 6SM -FZRA BR FEW006 OVC024 00/M01 A3015 RMK RAE11FZRAB11 P0001 T00001006
METAR KJFK 170451Z 06006KT 6SM RA BR FEW009 OVC026 01/M01 A3015 RMK RAB36FZRAE36PLE50 SLP210 P0011 T00061011 401220000
SPECI KJFK 170437Z 07005KT 6SM RAPL BR FEW009 OVC028 01/M01 A3016 RMK RAB36FZRAE36 P0007 T00061011
METAR KJFK 170430Z AUTO 08005KT 8SM -FZRA -PL OVC036 01/M01 A3017 RMK P0006
METAR KJFK 170425Z AUTO 07005KT 8SM -FZRA -PL OVC036 01/M01 A3017 RMK P0005
METAR KJFK 170351Z 07004KT 9SM -FZRAPL OVC034 01/M01 A3018 RMK AO2 RAE51FZRAB51 SLP219 P0004 T00061011
METAR KJFK 170350Z AUTO 07004KT 9SM -RA -PL OVC034 01/M01 A3018 RMK P0004

I was a little suprised too at how down by JFK reporting more icy conditions, until the ENE winds hit me in the face, I thought wind must be lining up with the Sound up here.

Also, there is a little ice when you go high enough up lower manhattan high rises.

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The mid-level charts never looked good for snow locally. Trof axis and mid-level lows too far N&W.  But many cases in the past have shown that a burst of overrunning precip. into a marginal airmass can produce over a short duration.  We obviously did not produce in those critical early hours.  I don't know how you can know for sure which way things will break when you are along a sharp thermal gradient.  The outcome is so sensitive to minor differences.  I guess nobody should have been so quick to discount the GFS.  It seems like maybe the practice of discarding outlier model solutions might lead to suboptimal statistical forecast verification.  I'm not sure how much snow fell up north, but it consistently showed mixing to ALB with snow to the Canadian border and ski country.  It's too bad model soundings aren't publically available for the ECMWF hi-res.

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We’re still bouncing back and forth around freezing or just below, roads are fine but the trees are definitely showing the bit of weight from the ice. 

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54 minutes ago, dWave said:

Wow wheres that? I saw nothing like that, at least when I left at 730am. Looks like in one of the large Parks like Van Courtlandt?

It's not far from Van Cortlandt Park. From there northward into Yonkers, there was quite a bit of ice. Farther south and east, the ice was much less.

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Still freezing drizzle. Car bounced back between 29 and 30 while I was driving at lunch time. Roads and other treated surfaces are fine but my car still hasn't melted and most other surfaces are still encased in ice. Judging by radar, looks like we have at least another few hours of this to contend with.

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3 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

56 days until pitchers and catchers report. 62 days until Presidents Day which I mark as the unofficial end to the heart of Winter/Snow season. With that being said, the last two Winters have been very back loaded.

yeah in the past I always looked at President's Day as the end of anything that would be long lasting on the ground or even come at all.  But the last few years have seen a March resurgence in snows and even snowpack (last year we had 10 inches and it hung around for close to a week)

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9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah in the past I always looked at President's Day as the end of anything that would be long lasting on the ground or even come at all.  But the last few years have seen a March resurgence in snows and even snowpack (last year we had 10 inches and it hung around for close to a week)

Had over 30" of snow here March of 2018. Last March was snowy as well but not on the same level.

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28/28/N1-4/Heavy freezing rain

@wdrag   This is getting bad, I've got .5" of ice on everything. I fell 4 times going down to the mailbox. The cars are a solid block of ice to the point I'm afraid I'm going to break a window chipping away at the ice. The best part - It's still raining!! :( 

 

 

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4 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

I was surprised to see JFK hang onto freezing rain longer than LGA and EWR. I think the high may have been placed just right to drain cold air down the island. Most of the UHI had a wind off the relatively warmer sound. Subtle trajectory differences and terrain obviously played a factor, too.

SPECI KJFK 170943Z 04010KT 7SM -RA BKN009 OVC023 01/00 A3000 RMK RAB42FZRAE42 P0004 T00060000
METAR KJFK 170851Z 05010KT 7SM -FZRA BKN009 OVC023 00/00 A3003 RMK SLP169 P0005 60023 T00000000 56031
SPECI KJFK 170843Z 06009KT 7SM -FZRA BKN009 OVC025 00/00 A3004 RMK P0005 T00000000
KJFK 170751Z 06013KT 7SM -FZRA FEW005 OVC019 00/M01 A3005 RMK SLP174 P0011 T00001006
KJFK 170651Z COR 06011KT 6SM -FZRA BR FEW006 BKN025 OVC075 00/M01 A3010 RMK RAE30FZRAB30 SLP191 P0007 T00001006
SPECI KJFK 170630Z 07008KT 6SM -FZRA BR FEW006 OVC022 00/M01 A3012 RMK RAE30FZRAB30 P0003 T00001006
METAR KJFK 170551Z 06006KT 6SM -RA BR FEW006 BKN023 OVC035 01/00 A3012 RMK RAE11B49FZRAB11E49 SLP200 931000 P0008 60030 T00060000 10022 20000 58024
SPECI KJFK 170511Z 04005KT 6SM -FZRA BR FEW006 OVC024 00/M01 A3015 RMK RAE11FZRAB11 P0001 T00001006
METAR KJFK 170451Z 06006KT 6SM RA BR FEW009 OVC026 01/M01 A3015 RMK RAB36FZRAE36PLE50 SLP210 P0011 T00061011 401220000
SPECI KJFK 170437Z 07005KT 6SM RAPL BR FEW009 OVC028 01/M01 A3016 RMK RAB36FZRAE36 P0007 T00061011
METAR KJFK 170430Z AUTO 08005KT 8SM -FZRA -PL OVC036 01/M01 A3017 RMK P0006
METAR KJFK 170425Z AUTO 07005KT 8SM -FZRA -PL OVC036 01/M01 A3017 RMK P0005
METAR KJFK 170351Z 07004KT 9SM -FZRAPL OVC034 01/M01 A3018 RMK AO2 RAE51FZRAB51 SLP219 P0004 T00061011
METAR KJFK 170350Z AUTO 07004KT 9SM -RA -PL OVC034 01/M01 A3018 RMK P0004

thats indeed a strange situation, but Central Park still retained freezing temps longer.

 

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46 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Had over 30" of snow here March of 2018. Last March was snowy as well but not on the same level.

my favorite March for snow was 2015, it was an extension of February.

March being snowy by itself really doesn't do anything for me, it has to be an extension of a snowy winter for it to "feel" like a real winter.

 

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2 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

I want to clarify JFK -FZRA

I took a plane that has sat all night at JFK at 6am

By that point it was +1C and -RA

There was no need to deice...no ice had accumulated on the cold plane through the night

 

so JFK didn't get above freezing until 6 am?

 

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3 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

This is a good signature for significant turbulence and compression on the JFK TWDR. NE winds near 10KT at the surface and SW winds 50KT+ at 4000 feet.  This wind difference often slows down air traffic into the NY metro airports. A 767 reported severe turbulence coming into JFK earlier this morning.

 FL040_121719.thumb.png.dea61733d0c93ccf272174eae08e6ffd.png

RGEM forecast soundings valid at 15Z show what would be a nice hodograph if there were surface based instability.

RGEM_JFK_15Z.thumb.png.fd4236fa2e669d7e46aee491d1035d19.png

 

the airport should have been closed...we've had some pretty bad incidents in this kind of weather

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51 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the airport should have been closed...we've had some pretty bad incidents in this kind of weather

They were never going to close JFK, especially at that hour with all of the flights arriving from Europe.

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