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40/70 Benchmark

12/17 Messy Mix

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Just now, dendrite said:

NAM is dry in Mass 12z Tue. Flakes up there by late afternoon. lol

Thats what i was using to make a quick reference, This seems to be slowing down on modeling but we also know these come in a few hours sooner then modeled generally.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm throwing all my eggs in the RPM basket (still not quite over at this point)

 

 

IMG_4091.PNG

We take!   Although I think they shat the bed. Or this past Wednesday’s system right?

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We take!   Although I think they shat the bed. Or this past Wednesday’s system right?

Absolutely all out defecation. 

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1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Icons mostly snow for CT. I don't know about it's skill score but i trust it the least over EC/UK/GEM global suite.

 

It actually resembles the UKMet/Euro right now more than the GFS/NAM do

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

 

It actually resembles the UKMet/Euro right now more than the GFS/NAM do

It does, just speaking in general terms...meaning that it doesn't really give me much confidence if it adds weight, or lack thereof, to the other globals.

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Dare I say the 18z NAM is onto something —only with regard to intensity though. Thinking “strung out” will be lost as the go to vernacular describing this as we get closer in. The surface low likely —as it typically does in these situations—ends up somewhere over SE MA...

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That vort is on the uptick. RGEM this morning started that trend. Plenty of time. As it is now the Euro has a solid 6 to 8 Hunchie Ray Pickles

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4 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Icon looks like all snow here, very little mixing.

RPM/ICON/JMA combo....absolutely deadly. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

RPM/ICON/JMA combo....absolutely deadly. 

Actually the 18z RGEM is trying to get on board with that unbeatable triplet

 

IMG_4092.GIF

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1 minute ago, blizzard24 said:

i dont know what boston national weather service seeing in models they are trending colder last three runs .

Give ‘em a call and tell them what’s up. 

  • Haha 1

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Just did a map. These setups use to drive me nuts but they seem to be pretty straight forward...a few inches of snow, then some sleet/ice , then some rain. Hardest aspect is determining how much sleet vs. how much freezing rain. Soundings at BDL do have extending period for some freezing rain but I don't think we're looking at a significant icing event...enough though to make for ad travel. 

1991826661_snowicemap.png.19df312d22c0cafe28b294fc78021d0f.png

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4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Indicies are a means of measuring hemispheric height and pressure patterns, which modulate our sensible weather. Any decent guidance will reflect this.

Indices don't modulate weather.  Weather does what it does.  Indices are a statistical way of observing and measuring it.  The idea that climate indicates influence weather is a common causal fallacy.  

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