Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2019 Snowing at Deep Creek now. Looks like the front is crossing through Cumberland. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
poolz1 Posted December 10, 2019 After a very slow but steady temp rise from this morning...finally seeing a steady drop now. Lost 2 degrees in the past 30 min. Got a ways to go...currently 51 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted December 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Just read the WWA for out here. Going on record that I don’t think there’s any way anywhere here gets 3-4” I am just hoping to see some splatty wet flakes on the windshield driving to work tomorrow morning. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted December 10, 2019 18z 3Km NAM has the Parrs Ridge bullseye. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
leesburg 04 Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: 18z 3Km NAM has the Parrs Ridge bullseye. Solid run if your expectations were in line Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mappy Posted December 10, 2019 Yup -- Id take that without issue 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2019 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 18z 3Km NAM has the Parrs Ridge bullseye. Ehh the jack is about 2.5 miles nw of my house there. I toss. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ji Posted December 10, 2019 Snowing at Deep Creek now. Looks like the front is crossing through Cumberland. It snows at deep creek in august 1 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ji Posted December 10, 2019 Solid run if your expectations were in lineThat's how you get a Loudoun delay thanks to w Loudoun 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthArlington101 Posted December 10, 2019 I'm gonna pull the good ol' weenie excuse of saying that both the 12k and 3k initiated really poorly with respect to how much precip is on the actual radar. Completely missed everything in Tennessee, Arkansas, and Kentucky. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2019 3” for @psuhoffman and 0 for DCA. That about covers it. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2019 15 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Solid run if your expectations were in line So you're saying the HRDERPS might be off a little? 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mappy Posted December 10, 2019 20 hours ago, mappy said: So pretty much our subforum will get a slushy coating to PSU 4” jackpot. sorry, 3" Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
leesburg 04 Posted December 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So you're saying the HRDERPS might be off a little? It's within the margin of error +/- 10" 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Inthepines Posted December 10, 2019 24 minutes ago, Ji said: 47 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Snowing at Deep Creek now. Looks like the front is crossing through Cumberland. It snows at deep creek in august Snowed two inches on May 13th when I used to live in snowshoe. Another two inches September 30th of the following year. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2019 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: I'm gonna pull the good ol' weenie excuse of saying that both the 12k and 3k initiated really poorly with respect to how much precip is on the actual radar. Completely missed everything in Tennessee, Arkansas, and Kentucky. Was gonna say the same thing. If the forecasted radar is that far off how can any stick be placed in anything it shows? 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthArlington101 Posted December 10, 2019 18z GFS has latched on to the dual-banding idea that others had mentioned earlier. Kinda splits D.C. so decent chance this is right. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2019 Temperature has plummeted 4 degrees in 4 hours since the wind shift here in Winchester Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Deer Whisperer Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z GFS has latched on to the dual-banding idea that others had mentioned earlier. Kinda splits D.C. so decent chance this is right. I like that southern band a lot, hopefully it appears on the radar tonight 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted December 10, 2019 ^Problem with that southern/eastern 'band' is temps. That map might be close to representative if we weren't talking warm, soggy ground and surface temps in the 34-35 degree range. I would totally take it verbatim if we had cold ground and temps around 30. As it is, anywhere SE of the fall line is looking at a half inch or less with extremely poor accumulating efficiency, unless some intense banding sets up overhead. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2019 In case anyone is wondering, post obs and radar hallucinations ITT 5 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthArlington101 Posted December 10, 2019 Might as well keep on talking about the 18z suite. 18z RGEM is cold, at the very least. Gives pretty much everyone (including the cities proper) 1" with temps below freezing. 1" everywhere would be a big win. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Always in Zugzwang Posted December 10, 2019 Well...a dusting of snow, or a light crust, is really all I expect where I'm at. But cannot say I'm disappointed in any way. Will at least get on the board somewhat, unlike last December. It will still be an impressive temperature drop and tomorrow will be a rude awakening after 50s today. Heh...maybe it will give me a chance to dust off the brush/scraper for the car tomorrow morning (if I can find it and dig the darned thing out)!! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WEATHER53 Posted December 10, 2019 2 hours ago, H2O said: i was told KY or TN and the baro needs to be at least 30.50 It’s good you were told considering a lack of ability to figure out on your own. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthArlington101 Posted December 10, 2019 I think I heard (jokingly, I'm sure ) that HDRPS maps are banned. 18z HDRPS is gonna be the best run of the 18z suite, bands DC-Balt pretty hard. 2-4" type run for areas that get hit, temps cooperate because of the banding. 2 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rhino16 Posted December 10, 2019 15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I think I heard (jokingly, I'm sure ) that HDRPS maps are banned. 18z HDRPS is gonna be the best run of the 18z suite, bands DC-Balt pretty hard. 2-4" type run for areas that get hit, temps cooperate because of the banding. Not so tasty down in Richmond... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Scraff Posted December 10, 2019 19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I think I heard (jokingly, I'm sure ) that HDRPS maps are banned. 18z HDRPS is gonna be the best run of the 18z suite, bands DC-Balt pretty hard. 2-4" type run for areas that get hit, temps cooperate because of the banding. Today is hug a Derp day... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mappy Posted December 10, 2019 19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I think I heard (jokingly, I'm sure ) that HDRPS maps are banned. 18z HDRPS is gonna be the best run of the 18z suite, bands DC-Balt pretty hard. 2-4" type run for areas that get hit, temps cooperate because of the banding. I never joke 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Always in Zugzwang Posted December 10, 2019 31 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I think I heard (jokingly, I'm sure ) that HDRPS maps are banned. 18z HDRPS is gonna be the best run of the 18z suite, bands DC-Balt pretty hard. 2-4" type run for areas that get hit, temps cooperate because of the banding. I heard that Jeb runs that model... (And I say that all in good fun, Jeb!!) 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ece Posted December 10, 2019 4 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Does 936-1212 still work? Can remember or at least I think I remember hearing the emphasis on the end of his name Meteorologist Mark Swayne. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites