December 11 Frontal Wave Snow Event

[Bob Chill]

Snowing at Deep Creek now. Looks like the front is crossing through Cumberland. 

[poolz1]

After a very slow but steady temp rise from this morning...finally seeing a steady drop now.  Lost 2 degrees in the past 30 min.  Got a ways to go...currently 51

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Just read the WWA for out here.

Going on record that I don’t think there’s any way anywhere here gets 3-4”

I am just hoping to see some splatty wet flakes on the windshield driving to work tomorrow morning.

[CAPE]

18z 3Km NAM has the Parrs Ridge bullseye.

[leesburg 04]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

18z 3Km NAM has the Parrs Ridge bullseye.

Solid run if your expectations were in line

[mappy]

Yup -- Id take that without issue

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

18z 3Km NAM has the Parrs Ridge bullseye.

Ehh the jack is about 2.5 miles nw of my house there. I toss. 

[Ji]

Snowing at Deep Creek now. Looks like the front is crossing through Cumberland. 

It snows at deep creek in august

[Ji]

Solid run if your expectations were in line

That's how you get a Loudoun delay thanks to w Loudoun

[NorthArlington101]

I'm gonna pull the good ol' weenie excuse of saying that both the 12k and 3k initiated really poorly with respect to how much precip is on the actual radar. Completely missed everything in Tennessee, Arkansas, and Kentucky.

[WxUSAF]

3” for @psuhoffman and 0 for DCA. That about covers it.

[stormtracker]

15 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Solid run if your expectations were in line

So you're saying the HRDERPS might be off a little?  

[mappy]

20 hours ago, mappy said:

So pretty much our subforum will get a slushy coating to PSU 4” jackpot. 

sorry, 3" 

[leesburg 04]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So you're saying the HRDERPS might be off a little?  

It's within the margin of error +/- 10"

[Inthepines]

24 minutes ago, Ji said:

47 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Snowing at Deep Creek now. Looks like the front is crossing through Cumberland. 

It snows at deep creek in august

Snowed two inches on May 13th when I used to live in snowshoe. Another two inches September 30th of the following year.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I'm gonna pull the good ol' weenie excuse of saying that both the 12k and 3k initiated really poorly with respect to how much precip is on the actual radar. Completely missed everything in Tennessee, Arkansas, and Kentucky.

Was gonna say the same thing. If the forecasted radar is that far off how can any stick be placed in anything it shows?

[NorthArlington101]

18z GFS has latched on to the dual-banding idea that others had mentioned earlier. Kinda splits D.C. so decent chance this is right.

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Temperature has plummeted 4 degrees in 4 hours since the wind shift here in Winchester 

[Deer Whisperer]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z GFS has latched on to the dual-banding idea that others had mentioned earlier. Kinda splits D.C. so decent chance this is right.

 

I like that southern band a lot, hopefully it appears on the radar tonight

[CAPE]

^Problem with that southern/eastern 'band' is temps. That map might be close to representative if we weren't talking warm, soggy ground and surface temps in the 34-35 degree range. I would totally take it verbatim if we had cold ground and temps around 30. As it is, anywhere SE of the fall line is looking at a half inch or less with extremely poor accumulating efficiency, unless some intense banding sets up overhead.

[WxUSAF]

In case anyone is wondering, post obs and radar hallucinations ITT

[NorthArlington101]

Might as well keep on talking about the 18z suite.

18z RGEM is cold, at the very least. Gives pretty much everyone (including the cities proper) 1" with temps below freezing. 1" everywhere would be a big win.

[Always in Zugzwang]

Well...a dusting of snow, or a light crust, is really all I expect where I'm at.  But cannot say I'm disappointed in any way.  Will at least get on the board somewhat, unlike last December.  It will still be an impressive temperature drop and tomorrow will be a rude awakening after 50s today.  Heh...maybe it will give me a chance to dust off the brush/scraper for the car tomorrow morning (if I can find it and dig the darned thing out)!!

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, H2O said:

i was told KY or TN and the baro needs to be at least 30.50

It’s good you were told considering a lack of ability to figure out on your own.

[NorthArlington101]

I think I heard (jokingly, I'm sure ) that HDRPS maps are banned. 18z HDRPS is gonna be the best run of the 18z suite, bands DC-Balt pretty hard. 2-4" type run for areas that get hit, temps cooperate because of the banding.

[Rhino16]

15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I think I heard (jokingly, I'm sure ) that HDRPS maps are banned. 18z HDRPS is gonna be the best run of the 18z suite, bands DC-Balt pretty hard. 2-4" type run for areas that get hit, temps cooperate because of the banding.

Not so tasty down in Richmond...

[Scraff]

19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I think I heard (jokingly, I'm sure ) that HDRPS maps are banned. 18z HDRPS is gonna be the best run of the 18z suite, bands DC-Balt pretty hard. 2-4" type run for areas that get hit, temps cooperate because of the banding.

Today is hug a Derp day...

[mappy]

19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I think I heard (jokingly, I'm sure ) that HDRPS maps are banned. 18z HDRPS is gonna be the best run of the 18z suite, bands DC-Balt pretty hard. 2-4" type run for areas that get hit, temps cooperate because of the banding.

I never joke 

[Always in Zugzwang]

31 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I think I heard (jokingly, I'm sure ) that HDRPS maps are banned. 18z HDRPS is gonna be the best run of the 18z suite, bands DC-Balt pretty hard. 2-4" type run for areas that get hit, temps cooperate because of the banding.

I heard that Jeb runs that model...

(And I say that all in good fun, Jeb!!)

[ece]

4 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Does 936-1212 still work?

Can remember or at least I think I remember hearing the emphasis on the end of his name Meteorologist Mark Swayne.