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WxUSAF

December 11 Frontal Wave Snow Event

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Trying not to overload the site with maps, especially because the images WeatherBell gives me on my phone are annoyingly low-quality. 06z EURO shifted the heaviest stuff a decent bit SE. Better run for almost everyone.

8bb1dbc233245b838f9d1e65d6cc316a.jpg

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30 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Do you have the 72 and 75 hour maps?

Same look just shifted NW more towards your area.

Here is the snowfall total, which seems pretty reasonable to me.

1576108800-1zVOA5gQUJA.png

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At this juncture, an inch or 2, with 3 in the favored areas seems like a realistic high bar. Low bar is the typical white rain we often see in these set ups.

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

NAM giving some areas a NAMing. Should we surprised? Better surface reflection and good swath of overrunning for much of the forum.

Beware early NAMings lol. 6"+ for nearby highlands. 4-5" in the corridor.

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

:popcorn:

Surely we can get some type of reliable idea today since we are so close in time.-

You’ve been cracking me up for days, please keep it up

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The NAM is the NAM but it's not like the other guidance has shown nothing. I'm still a bit skeptical in general of a good event up and down the front, but it's hard to ignore the signal for at least some measurable snow via this setup. Just need to get numbers. It's all about production. 

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The NAM is the NAM but it's not like the other guidance has shown nothing. I'm still a bit skeptical in general of a good event up and down the front, but it's hard to ignore the signal for at least some measurable snow via this setup. Just need to get numbers. It's all about production. 

The precip part of this seems likely to at the least decent. It’s those ground temps that are so iffy at least as modeled.

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

12z GFS looks nice. Cant be totally right though because it bulleyes my yard. :weenie:

These minute shifts in front orientation make a big difference right? Gfs and icon sped up the mid level push a little. That's important for the corridor and your hood. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

These minute shifts in front orientation make a big difference right? Gfs and icon sped up the mid level push a little. That's important for the corridor and your hood. 

Yup. Was watching h5 as it was rolling and I liked what I saw. Not a huge difference, but enough.

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1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

NAM always nails the first storm of the season around here then nothing else until next winter

78hr NAM is worlds more accurate than 84hr NAM. 6 hours more accurate

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