Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 4 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, I conceded a few days ago. No sense tracking a damn thing when the next 7 days feature mostly unseasonable warmth and any precip will be the rain variety. With nothing exciting showing up beyond the next 7 days it's best to just embrace it, spend time outside, and only worry about the lack of snow once we start consistently getting below freezing again. Hard to be bummed about no snow when it's 60+ outside. Yes, indeed. I went out for a ride the other day in the later afternoon...gorgeous! I know there are enough days around here in winter where one can ride a bike (I do road cycling) without an issue and in reasonable comfort. Bob...you said you do mountain biking? What type...like way off-road stuff with the heavy duty shocks on the front fork, or more on the dirt trails? I haven't done that type before, like I said, I mostly do road stuff or some (mostly paved) trails. I used to do a lot more in my distant past and this year I decided to get back into cycling again. After I broke my finger in a softball game earlier this summer, I treated myself to a decent hybrid-style Trek (nothing fancy, but solid and well-built). Also got myself a Garmin to track miles, elevation, cadence, that sort of thing. The amount of data you can get now is amazing and I am only using a fraction of that. I still remember having an old 12 speed road bike through high school, college, and somewhat beyond (damn fine bike I pretty well rode into the ground after 25 years of use!)...I even had one of those old-style 1980s analogue odometer/speedometer things with a thick wire and a cog that you had to attach to the wheel, and you had to get the specific one to match your wheel size. Now it's all GPS and the speed/cadence sensors are so much nicer to attach (and much cleaner looking too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 It's much easier to take a winter where there is no chance than a winter where they say there are chances all winter and then its March and we have nothing to show for it...kind of like the last couple of winters around here. Maybe this is a 2011-2012 redux. I seem to remember that was the one where 50 degree days in January were standard and we got like a dusting of snow all year. But it was alright because we were never in the game to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 I honestly think all of the angst is for naught. It’s very early and I think we are gonna end up with a decent winter before it’s over. I thought last year was a decent one and on this date last year it was pretty much nothing also. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Is there anyplace online where EPS 2m temp anomalies are freely available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 44 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I honestly think all of the angst is for naught. It’s very early and I think we are gonna end up with a decent winter before it’s over. I thought last year was a decent one and on this date last year it was pretty much nothing also. It really pretty much is the norm that we dont get much appreciable snows until after mid January tbh. The seasons where we have significant snow before mid Jan are unusual and are rare. Still a reasonable expectation that both of our respective regions end up with average to just above average snowfall when all is said and done. Now if we get to Valentines Day and we are still under a couple of inches to date then I will reconsider what I just typed. For now, we wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Went for a short hike to the falls at Rocks State Park with the pup. 54 and rather a lovely day for a walk for the lab to splash around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 2 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yes, indeed. I went out for a ride the other day in the later afternoon...gorgeous! I know there are enough days around here in winter where one can ride a bike (I do road cycling) without an issue and in reasonable comfort. Wife and kids and I biked about 15 miles on the Western Maryland Rail Trail on Christmas Eve. Weather was perfect for that kind of ride. If you ever have a chance to get up this way, it's a beautiful (paved) 26-mile path that parallels the C & O Canal. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I honestly think all of the angst is for naught. It’s very early and I think we are gonna end up with a decent winter before it’s over. I thought last year was a decent one and on this date last year it was pretty much nothing also. I've kinda been expecting a dog of a winter this year. We have been on a pretty good heater here for a while. I have averaged 33.8" for the past 10 winters vs a long-term average of around 26". Five of those winters have been greater than that 33" average. Just been hoping for a 15-20" type season and not one of those 5-10" years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: There are some hints in the long range the PV might retreat across the pole. That’s far from ideal and would limit cold potential BUT it would allow ridging across Canada and I would take that wrt snowfall mid winter than the pac ridge raging +AO combo. Taking a break from your break? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Taking a break from your break? Well 12 hours away was a break for me. I said my peace on the pattern. I won’t continie the beat that drum. But I will point out anything encouraging I might see. The pattern shown on guidance the last few days is the absolute worst. It’s the stuff our dreg winters are made of. But we’re not toast yet. A one week aberration isn’t a big deal. But if that locks in for 2+ Weeks...that’s uh oh. There are ways out with that pac but they involve some AO or NAO help. Today showed a slight improvement. There were some baby steps. We need more but today was the first time I saw anything positive in a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 @psuhoffman I sent ya a DM a couple days ago...lol (was askin' something about the map from Feb 2006 you posted the other day) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: @psuhoffman I sent ya a DM a couple days ago...lol (was askin' something about the map from Feb 2006 you posted the other day) Sorry I’ll check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 @nj2va Caps cant fiquire out the blue jackets this year. 7 loses in regulation this year and 2 are from the jackets. About to be 3 if the caps cant get on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Well I see that the GEFS is up to its old tricks, offering us a glimmer of hope. Sometimes I think it and the EPS are sentient and play a "good model, bad model" routine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 No matter what happens this winter I called it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: No matter what happens this winter I called it Truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 2 hours ago, Chris78 said: @nj2va Caps cant fiquire out the blue jackets this year. 7 loses in regulation this year and 2 are from the jackets. About to be 3 if the caps cant get on the board. Ovechkin is going to skip the ASG again... automatic 1 game suspension per NHL rules https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/28379993/alex-ovechkin-skip-all-star-game-listen-my-body Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 2 hours ago, Chris78 said: @nj2va Caps cant fiquire out the blue jackets this year. 7 loses in regulation this year and 2 are from the jackets. About to be 3 if the caps cant get on the board. Nice job smacking some sense into them with this post. Wore my Oshie Jersey while watching the game so I’d course feel that it helped him score the OT winner. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Ovechkin is going to skip the ASG again... automatic 1 game suspension per NHL rules https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/28379993/alex-ovechkin-skip-all-star-game-listen-my-body Fine with me...ASG is a waste and he knows when he needs a break. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Fine with me...ASG is a waste and he knows when he needs a break. I agree... but its just when he's voted in by the fans - as captain of the Metro team - you think he would at least show up. Any player who is voted in to the ASG should show up, even if its a Penguin. I don't understand the silly one game suspension either. What's one game going to do? Just gives whoever it is more rest. Not sure what else you can do to stop players from skipping it though tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 42 minutes ago, nj2va said: Nice job smacking some sense into them with this post. Wore my Oshie Jersey while watching the game so I’d course feel that it helped him score the OT winner. Lol. Got both my kids Oshie Jerseys for Christmas to match mine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 48 minutes ago, yoda said: Ovechkin is going to skip the ASG again... automatic 1 game suspension per NHL rules https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/28379993/alex-ovechkin-skip-all-star-game-listen-my-body Didn't realize that. Id rather him rest his body if he needs it to hopefully make a deep run this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 I was amused to see that by week 6 on the CFS weeklies the giant ridge N or Hawaii has migrated to a somewhat less unfortunate position. February will save us. Well maybe you guys. SE is probably still screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Is it me or is wxsouth the worst forecaster on facebook. I mean wow. He is like the southern jb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 40 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I was amused to see that by week 6 on the CFS weeklies the giant ridge N or Hawaii has migrated to a somewhat less unfortunate position. February will save us. Well maybe you guys. SE is probably still screwed. Not that it matters on a smoothed over means 6 weeks out but verbatim that is a cold / dry look and very progressive with no slowing mechanism in the Atl. The Pac and Atl dont like playing nice together anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not that it matters on a smoothed over means 6 weeks out but verbatim that is a cold / dry look and very progressive with no slowing mechanism in the Atl. The Pac and Atl dont like playing nice together anymore. I am trying to learn a lot in a short time period so forgive the pestering. What shows you that it will be cold/dry vs cold? Also, why do areas of high geopotential heights cause blocks, but areas of low geopotential heights do not? What makes a pattern progressive vs blocky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Reading up, found an interesting pre-season write-up for 2018-19. I post it here for other lurkers because it has a lot of good info about teleconnections. But reading it over I thought it was fascinating to revisit why there was so much positivity for some going into last year. Made me want to go back in time and grab him by the collar and yell "BEWARE THE MJO, IT WILL GO BATSH!T THROUGH THE WARM PHASES AND DEVOUR YOUR HOPES AND DREAMS!!!" But I can't. http://deepfryedmind.blogspot.com/2018/10/flash-weather-2018-19-winter-weather.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 12 hours ago, losetoa6 said: I had several small service calls today and I actually ran into light rain in Parkton for a bit then in Hanover also hit a patch of light rain . Nobody else ? Wasn’t home to be able to tell ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Thinking of breaking into my spring wardrobe today LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 6 hours ago, cbmclean said: I am trying to learn a lot in a short time period so forgive the pestering. What shows you that it will be cold/dry vs cold? Also, why do areas of high geopotential heights cause blocks, but areas of low geopotential heights do not? What makes a pattern progressive vs blocky? EPO ridge in Western Canada is pouring cold in (follow the lines from the Arctic Circle into the Plains) then the flow continues around the bottom of the trof in the East which is the PV anchored over Greenland. With no ridging in the N Atl the flow is fast/progressive with nothing to buckle and slow it down which again, this is a smoothed means but implies a general cold and fast flow with no big storm signal. Of course we could get a clipper out of that look so maybe not bone dry but not a big storm look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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