Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm


Zelocita Weather
 Share

Recommended Posts

a snippet from OKX 4:36pm discussion,

 

"

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The low will track
slowly to Cape Cod through Monday night as it continues to
strengthen. Minor differences in the thermal profiles between
ECMWF, NAM, and GFS, with GFS a bit warmer than the other two.
Despite these minor differences, this continues to be a low
confidence precipitation forecast, especially in the metro area
and along the coast, with higher confidence inland. As the
surface and 850 mb lows pass east of Long Island, colder air
will filter in, allowing the wintry mix line to move south
Monday morning and afternoon. There will also be uncertainty in
precipitation intensity Monday morning and afternoon as models
are hinting at a heavy band of precipitation developing
somewhere across northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson
Valley, that might make its way into the New York City metro
area, but where exactly this sets up is still largely unknown.
This band will also add to the uncertainty in precipitation type
as dynamic cooling of the column would occur in the heavier
precipitation, changing precipitation back to snow quicker than
forecast. With all that in mind, thinking is that a changeover
to all snow is expected early Monday evening for the New York
City metro area and western and central Long Island. The Twin
Forks of Long Island may not changeover completely or at all.

As for snowfall amounts, 6 to 12 inches are possible across portions
of Northeast New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley and inland
southeastern Connecticut. A Winter Storm Watch continues for these
areas. This is a long duration event, with a snow to wintry mix (or
rain) to snow changeover for many places. There may be impacts the
Monday morning and evening commutes depending on location and
precipitation type transitions.

3 to 6 inches are expected across southern Westchester and portions
of Northeast New Jersey and portions of inland southeastern
Connecticut.

1 to 4 inches are expected for New York City, metro New Jersey,
central and western Long Island, and coastal .

Less than an inch is expected for the Twin Forks of Long Island and
coastal New London.

Liquid equivalent amounts will generally be between 1 and 1 3/4
inches."
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

NYC does fine. I would take that solution in a heartbeat. Warning snows for Central Park! That would be some heavy snow Monday morning!!!

NYC is pretty big: SI will not have the same snows as the Bronx a lot of time. QUeens often gets more if the storm is more east. So "NYC does fine" in what way?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

a snippet from OKX 4:36pm discussion,

 

"


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The low will track
slowly to Cape Cod through Monday night as it continues to
strengthen. Minor differences in the thermal profiles between
ECMWF, NAM, and GFS, with GFS a bit warmer than the other two.
Despite these minor differences, this continues to be a low
confidence precipitation forecast, especially in the metro area
and along the coast, with higher confidence inland. As the
surface and 850 mb lows pass east of Long Island, colder air
will filter in, allowing the wintry mix line to move south
Monday morning and afternoon. There will also be uncertainty in
precipitation intensity Monday morning and afternoon as models
are hinting at a heavy band of precipitation developing
somewhere across northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson
Valley, that might make its way into the New York City metro
area, but where exactly this sets up is still largely unknown.
This band will also add to the uncertainty in precipitation type
as dynamic cooling of the column would occur in the heavier
precipitation, changing precipitation back to snow quicker than
forecast. With all that in mind, thinking is that a changeover
to all snow is expected early Monday evening for the New York
City metro area and western and central Long Island. The Twin
Forks of Long Island may not changeover completely or at all.

As for snowfall amounts, 6 to 12 inches are possible across portions
of Northeast New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley and inland
southeastern Connecticut. A Winter Storm Watch continues for these
areas. This is a long duration event, with a snow to wintry mix (or
rain) to snow changeover for many places. There may be impacts the
Monday morning and evening commutes depending on location and
precipitation type transitions.

3 to 6 inches are expected across southern Westchester and portions
of Northeast New Jersey and portions of inland southeastern
Connecticut.

1 to 4 inches are expected for New York City, metro New Jersey,
central and western Long Island, and coastal .

Less than an inch is expected for the Twin Forks of Long Island and
coastal New London.

Liquid equivalent amounts will generally be between 1 and 1 3/4
inches."

Seems they are going very climo with this. Would agree at this point with this setup.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Maureen said:

O/T - A lot of weenie "reactions" flying around in here!  I wonder if at least some (though not @RayJay lol) were simply meant to be "likes," but once the weenie was added where it is a lot of us have mistakenly used it!  Hmm, mods, was that done by design? :D

Tell Pam/Ray Jay that I appreciate the curse.  

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Something for everyone with this event. The NAM and Euro have heavy elevated convection tomorrow.  The amount of convection may influence the track of the secondary. So it could be another wildcard.

7FC85116-9508-453B-B3BF-C6B00C9E634A.thumb.png.8daa55212651727c80b6324534b003b9.png

 

Meaning the surface low may tend to gravitate towards the heaviest connection offshore? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Something for everyone with this event. The NAM and Euro have heavy elevated convection tomorrow.  The amount of convection may influence the track of the secondary. So it could be another wildcard.

7FC85116-9508-453B-B3BF-C6B00C9E634A.thumb.png.8daa55212651727c80b6324534b003b9.png

 

Will be interesting for surface temps north of city, how cold we get tonight and amount of cloud cover tomorrow morning

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Do you think we can get thundersnow with this Monday afternoon Chris?

I have no idea where the band may set up. But the forecast soundings have very steep mid level lapse rates and elevated TT’s. So it’s possible somebody gets thunder if that IVT sets up. So many moving parts with this event that it may come down to nowcast time on Monday.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...