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Zelocita Weather

Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm

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Just now, Ericjcrash said:

So easy on android. Great interface..

GFS couldn't be any worse. Ugly. NYC all the way up to 1" from 0.2"

The banding got closer. That's the main thing.

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2 minutes ago, Greg g said:

The GFS has really been terrible the last few years, right after their update, no??

This is really a bad storm for the GFS weaknesses.  Cold air is marginal and its a fairly complicated evolution.  Its no surprise the UKmet/Euro look different 

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1 minute ago, Animal said:

Looks like it hammers nw nj 

Yes it does and NE penn. Everybody else pretty much gets the shaft. It just doesn't look right. Has 10 inches near Albany. They could get double that. 

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a snippet from OKX 4:36pm discussion,

 

"

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The low will track
slowly to Cape Cod through Monday night as it continues to
strengthen. Minor differences in the thermal profiles between
ECMWF, NAM, and GFS, with GFS a bit warmer than the other two.
Despite these minor differences, this continues to be a low
confidence precipitation forecast, especially in the metro area
and along the coast, with higher confidence inland. As the
surface and 850 mb lows pass east of Long Island, colder air
will filter in, allowing the wintry mix line to move south
Monday morning and afternoon. There will also be uncertainty in
precipitation intensity Monday morning and afternoon as models
are hinting at a heavy band of precipitation developing
somewhere across northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson
Valley, that might make its way into the New York City metro
area, but where exactly this sets up is still largely unknown.
This band will also add to the uncertainty in precipitation type
as dynamic cooling of the column would occur in the heavier
precipitation, changing precipitation back to snow quicker than
forecast. With all that in mind, thinking is that a changeover
to all snow is expected early Monday evening for the New York
City metro area and western and central Long Island. The Twin
Forks of Long Island may not changeover completely or at all.

As for snowfall amounts, 6 to 12 inches are possible across portions
of Northeast New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley and inland
southeastern Connecticut. A Winter Storm Watch continues for these
areas. This is a long duration event, with a snow to wintry mix (or
rain) to snow changeover for many places. There may be impacts the
Monday morning and evening commutes depending on location and
precipitation type transitions.

3 to 6 inches are expected across southern Westchester and portions
of Northeast New Jersey and portions of inland southeastern
Connecticut.

1 to 4 inches are expected for New York City, metro New Jersey,
central and western Long Island, and coastal .

Less than an inch is expected for the Twin Forks of Long Island and
coastal New London.

Liquid equivalent amounts will generally be between 1 and 1 3/4
inches."

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2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

18z RGEM cuts NYC but expands the goods for more of us. I'll take it.

NYC does fine. I would take that solution in a heartbeat. Warning snows for Central Park! That would be some heavy snow Monday morning!!!

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19 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

NYC does fine. I would take that solution in a heartbeat. Warning snows for Central Park! That would be some heavy snow Monday morning!!!

NYC is pretty big: SI will not have the same snows as the Bronx a lot of time. QUeens often gets more if the storm is more east. So "NYC does fine" in what way?

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31 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

a snippet from OKX 4:36pm discussion,

 

"

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The low will track
slowly to Cape Cod through Monday night as it continues to
strengthen. Minor differences in the thermal profiles between
ECMWF, NAM, and GFS, with GFS a bit warmer than the other two.
Despite these minor differences, this continues to be a low
confidence precipitation forecast, especially in the metro area
and along the coast, with higher confidence inland. As the
surface and 850 mb lows pass east of Long Island, colder air
will filter in, allowing the wintry mix line to move south
Monday morning and afternoon. There will also be uncertainty in
precipitation intensity Monday morning and afternoon as models
are hinting at a heavy band of precipitation developing
somewhere across northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson
Valley, that might make its way into the New York City metro
area, but where exactly this sets up is still largely unknown.
This band will also add to the uncertainty in precipitation type
as dynamic cooling of the column would occur in the heavier
precipitation, changing precipitation back to snow quicker than
forecast. With all that in mind, thinking is that a changeover
to all snow is expected early Monday evening for the New York
City metro area and western and central Long Island. The Twin
Forks of Long Island may not changeover completely or at all.

As for snowfall amounts, 6 to 12 inches are possible across portions
of Northeast New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley and inland
southeastern Connecticut. A Winter Storm Watch continues for these
areas. This is a long duration event, with a snow to wintry mix (or
rain) to snow changeover for many places. There may be impacts the
Monday morning and evening commutes depending on location and
precipitation type transitions.

3 to 6 inches are expected across southern Westchester and portions
of Northeast New Jersey and portions of inland southeastern
Connecticut.

1 to 4 inches are expected for New York City, metro New Jersey,
central and western Long Island, and coastal .

Less than an inch is expected for the Twin Forks of Long Island and
coastal New London.

Liquid equivalent amounts will generally be between 1 and 1 3/4
inches."

Seems they are going very climo with this. Would agree at this point with this setup.

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1 hour ago, Maureen said:

O/T - A lot of weenie "reactions" flying around in here!  I wonder if at least some (though not @RayJay lol) were simply meant to be "likes," but once the weenie was added where it is a lot of us have mistakenly used it!  Hmm, mods, was that done by design? :D

Tell Pam/Ray Jay that I appreciate the curse.  

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  • Haha 1

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15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Something for everyone with this event. The NAM and Euro have heavy elevated convection tomorrow.  The amount of convection may influence the track of the secondary. So it could be another wildcard.

7FC85116-9508-453B-B3BF-C6B00C9E634A.thumb.png.8daa55212651727c80b6324534b003b9.png

 

Meaning the surface low may tend to gravitate towards the heaviest connection offshore? 

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17 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Tell Pam/Ray Jay that I appreciate the curse.  

Is Pam ........ is Ray Jay ........ is the curse ........ ? I definitely intend to spike the eggnog before Irish Rob passes the peace pipe back my way. As always ......

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Or wherever the biggest blowup of convection forms. 30-60 miles either way could make a big difference. Especially with such a broad upper low with multiple vorts and a dry slot.

Do you think we can get thundersnow with this Monday afternoon Chris?

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27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Something for everyone with this event. The NAM and Euro have heavy elevated convection tomorrow.  The amount of convection may influence the track of the secondary. So it could be another wildcard.

7FC85116-9508-453B-B3BF-C6B00C9E634A.thumb.png.8daa55212651727c80b6324534b003b9.png

 

Will be interesting for surface temps north of city, how cold we get tonight and amount of cloud cover tomorrow morning

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2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Do you think we can get thundersnow with this Monday afternoon Chris?

I have no idea where the band may set up. But the forecast soundings have very steep mid level lapse rates and elevated TT’s. So it’s possible somebody gets thunder if that IVT sets up. So many moving parts with this event that it may come down to nowcast time on Monday.

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