CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Reggie Gone Wild 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 So about 10-12 for me, how i pray im wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Can u expound on that and how it relates to CCB development late Monday nite I just think it may develop a bit quicker to our SW...a more organized sfc low and better inflow south of LI. The RGEM almost has a stinger east of NJ. The arm of mid-level fronto could still swing pretty far northward...even up by me. idk...just kinda brainstorming while looking at a bajillion models and sipping an espresso. I'm not going to pretend to know how it will work out. I can't do millions of calc equations in my head per second. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Um ya ...what was that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol I'm going to keep deferring to a higher res version until I get one that I like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 That RGEM map is ridiculously snowy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Reggie Gone Wild Well that’s a lot better for a lot of us CT peeps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 That strip just north of Springfield is like 30”... wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: I just think it may develop a bit quicker to our SW...a more organized sfc low and better inflow south of LI. The RGEM almost has a stinger east of NJ. The arm of mid-level fronto could still swing pretty far northward...even up by me. idk...just kinda brainstorming while looking at a bajillion models and sipping an espresso. I'm not going to pretend to know how it will work out. I can't do millions of calc equations in my head per second. I'm starting to see more of this in the midlevels since 18z runs today....this is the 00z RGEM at 48...so even before the best of round 2 comes in, and look at how ridiculous that is...like 60 knots of inflow with still excellent thermal packing out to the east and SE of BOS over the ocean....it is hard to imagine there not being a very well defined CCB in that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, WinterWolf said: Well that’s a lot better for a lot of us CT peeps Well this forecast could really go to hell. SHould be fun! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, CT Rain said: Well this forecast could really go to hell. SHould be fun! Yea this is a horse of a different color Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Maybe a similar distro? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 12 hours until go time and still under a Winter Storm Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Well this forecast could really go to hell. SHould be fun! Lol...it’s so tough with this changing by the hour ..who knows?? Your call now is very reasonable imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, WinterWolf said: Lol...it’s so tough with this changing by the hour ..who knows?? Your call now is very reasonable imo. It's fine assuming a decent front end thump and a meh follow up/CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 I don’t recall seeing colors like that on the Reggie before. Jeebus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm starting to see more of this in the midlevels since 18z runs today....this is the 00z RGEM at 48...so even before the best of round 2 comes in, and look at how ridiculous that is...like 60 knots of inflow with still excellent thermal packing out to the east and SE of BOS over the ocean....it is hard to imagine there not being a very well defined CCB in that I noticed the thickness packing taking on a TROWAL look too. If you look out in the Atlantic, you can draw a line in the middle of the kink and it goes right into SNE. So some isentropic lift sort of regenerating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 GGEM looks good for round two as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: I noticed the thickness packing taking on a TROWAL look too. If you look out in the Atlantic, you can draw a line in the middle of the kink and it goes right into SNE. So some isentropic lift sort of regenerating. Yeah the RGEM was the most extreme scenario but the other guidance is starting to show it...like GFS is 40 knots now out of the ENE. If that trend continues, then it's going to bust a lot of forecasts too low. There will be some monster totals on that setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm starting to see more of this in the midlevels since 18z runs today....this is the 00z RGEM at 48...so even before the best of round 2 comes in, and look at how ridiculous that is...like 60 knots of inflow with still excellent thermal packing out to the east and SE of BOS over the ocean....it is hard to imagine there not being a very well defined CCB in that Yeah...that image shows it well. There was just something about the 12z model suite that left me thinking the pieces on the table weren't spaced right. The midlevels looked decent over NYC and the models kept dropping blobs of heavy QPF around the city with inverted troughing. It just looked like one of those deals where it would get its act together more SW of where it was being progged. We'll see. The Euro will probably roll in and laugh at the rest of the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: It's fine assuming a decent front end thump and a meh follow up/CCB. Yes exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 31 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That is nuts in Eastern NY and around ALB County. Everything just crushes there. All models seems to bulls eye me. Hope it's not a jinx. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Thermal packing, dryslots, herpes. Place is like Wizs hot tub parties. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Thermal packing, dryslots, herpes. Place is like Wizs hot tub parties. Don't forget the warm tongue. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Don't forget the warm tongue. Ooh la la monsieur 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Logan11 said: All models seems to bulls eye me. Hope it's not a jinx. Pretty sure I would trade places with you Rick ( unless a monster CCB pops up) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Pretty sure I would trade places with you Rick ( unless a monster CCB pops up) Ricks like Hippy, Locked for days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 If/When an observation thread is started it should be titled Fella’s Birthday Snowstorm. 18F. Cold and dry. Damn fine airmass to start with here. Although it will take a while to saturate. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Cmc held serve 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: If/When an observation thread is started it should be titled Fella’s Birthday Snowstorm. 18F. Cold and dry. Damn fine airmass to start with here. Although it will take a while to saturate. Midstation lodge at Whiteface 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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