• Member Statistics

    15,696
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Mcninja
    Newest Member
    Mcninja
    Joined
40/70 Benchmark

Monday 12/2 Threat Disco

Recommended Posts

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Weak for CT. Everyone else surrounds with 12+ though.

I guess 7-10" on Dec 1 must really suck.

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

An inch by my area?

Tossed as far as the eye can see.

I actually forecasted some sleet into s NH, but those totals are absurd.

I definitely agree that was a real warm outlier, but I did want to highlight one nice thing about the 3km NAM. It explicitly forecasts snow ratios based on hydrometeor type. Snow ratios change according to the rime factor. The higher the rime factor the close to pure sleet you are getting. 

This example from the latest 3 km shows reflectivity and rime factor. Over NNE there is reflectivity but no rime factor (=pure snow). As you move SW you get more and more riming. 

Webp.net-gifmaker%205_zpswffoz8us.gif

Rime_zpspxpxxwxq.png

> 5 rime factor (cyan into the warm colors) is typically graupel and sleet. The NAM will use snow ratios anywhere from 5:1 for graupel down to 2:1 for sleet. Between the no riming and factor of 5 you get ratios from 3:1 to 8:1. It definitely produces a more realistic looking snowfall map in situations where mixing is forecast to occur.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Round 2?  On my phone was only seeing congrats Nys/pa/nj and keven posting like niedermeir that “all is well”.  Anxious to see this back at home.

There’s a few posters buying the NAM. That’s their choice 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, OceanStWx said:

I definitely agree that was a real warm outlier, but I did want to highlight one nice thing about the 3km NAM. It explicitly forecasts snow ratios based on hydrometeor type. Snow ratios change according to the rime factor. The higher the rime factor the close to pure sleet you are getting. 

This example from the latest 3 km shows reflectivity and rime factor. Over NNE there is reflectivity but no rime factor (=pure snow). As you move SW you get more and more riming. 

Webp.net-gifmaker%205_zpswffoz8us.gif

 

> 5 rime factor (cyan into the warm colors) is typically graupel and sleet. The NAM will use snow ratios anywhere from 5:1 for graupel down to 2:1 for sleet. Between the no riming and factor of 5 you get ratios from 3:1 to 8:1. It definitely produces a more realistic looking snowfall map in situations where mixing is forecast to occur.

3K been steadfast at getting some of the WAA snow this far north, Before the SLP takes off.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Hoth said:

Garbage. Congrats Lunenberg on 30".

What's funny is every model except the Canadian models skip some part of CT. 

We shall see, rarely are the bands EXACTLY where modeled.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, weatherwiz said:

The NAM seems extremely bizarre on just all levels...especially with the VV's 

Where do you calculate the greatest omega to be?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I definitely agree that was a real warm outlier, but I did want to highlight one nice thing about the 3km NAM. It explicitly forecasts snow ratios based on hydrometeor type. Snow ratios change according to the rime factor. The higher the rime factor the close to pure sleet you are getting. 

This example from the latest 3 km shows reflectivity and rime factor. Over NNE there is reflectivity but no rime factor (=pure snow). As you move SW you get more and more riming. 

Webp.net-gifmaker%205_zpswffoz8us.gif

 

> 5 rime factor (cyan into the warm colors) is typically graupel and sleet. The NAM will use snow ratios anywhere from 5:1 for graupel down to 2:1 for sleet. Between the no riming and factor of 5 you get ratios from 3:1 to 8:1. It definitely produces a more realistic looking snowfall map in situations where mixing is forecast to occur.

Is rime factor only available in AWIPS?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, weatherwiz said:

Is rime factor only available in AWIPS?

No, but I also don't know any website that reproduce it for free. Or paid for that matter. 

So I've only ever seen it in AWIPS.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

3K been steadfast at getting some of the WAA snow this far north, Before the SLP takes off.

I’m enjoying tracking this one. I feel like this system has some tricks up its sleeve...whether that results in something favorable or not for us.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, EastonSN+ said:

What's funny is every model except the Canadian models skip some part of CT. 

We shall see, rarely are the bands EXACTLY where modeled.

If I were only able to see the model output for my county, I'd probably be delighted to get a few inches in early December. But seeing everyone around me getting thrashed while we choke subsidence makes me feel cosmically punished, like I have some sins i forgot to atone for. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

3K been steadfast at getting some of the WAA snow this far north, Before the SLP takes off.

There's a lot of bust potential on the NE side if that WAA washes out too soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, dendrite said:

I’m enjoying tracking this one. I feel like this system has some tricks up its sleeve...whether that results in something favorable or not for us.

Looks to be coming together late in the game for us, Moreso here as the SLP looks to bomb in the GOM on the last couple model cycles.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

There's a lot of bust potential on the NE side if that WAA washes out too soon.

It seems the 3k has been the only model that has had it, Others do not, But looks like the high and the block are not as strong either it seems to allow the further north progression, Still an eternity up here as some of the first flakes don't look to fly for another 36 hrs or so or longer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’m enjoying tracking this one. I feel like this system has some tricks up its sleeve...whether that results in something favorable or not for us.

Yup, these larger storms often have some kind of surprise.  My favorite is double the snow but the most common one is pingfest showing up early.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, dendrite said:

Where do you calculate the greatest omega to be?

just N or NW of the lows...which on cod it didn't really appear that way. 

Look at the 700VV on Cod...has the strongest within the 282m contour.

Anyways I think its more of a contour thing...looks like cod does every 3m and TT does every 4m...so adding in an extra contour on Cod I suppose it's fine. 

But regarding the posts about the snow hole in CT...CT sucks on serious subsidence/dry air on the NAM 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Hoth said:

If I were only able to see the model output for my county, I'd probably be delighted to get a few inches in early December. But seeing everyone around me getting thrashed while we choke subsidence makes me feel cosmically punished, like I have some sins i forgot to atone for. 

Lol right.

 

Im not buying the NAM one bit.  Not cuz it skips me(CT), but because it literally gives every other direction/area the goods...but one.   I just don’t see that happening.  If it skipped CT and places West and NW and SW...and then went over to the NE..that’d be much more believable.  But not this stupidity.  

  • Like 1
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.