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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


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9 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

ouch, no kidding.....just yesterday we were dancing with 12+ on the Euro, now we can't even crack 6 inches...We might need to enjoy our 2-4 tomorrow afternoon.

The ULL snows continue to be under modeled. The entire N 2/3 of CT is a virtual lock 8-12”. How many times have we seen that over the years. Each run things keep coming south and east. Patience 

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1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

Not liking the trends on the 12Z models for up here.  No cliff jumping yet but definately don't feel confident on any big snow

What do we consider big?  I don't see one model with less than 12" in KALB. The Euro just came out with a 16" for ALB, based on 10-1.  I think we have to consider this is the first few days of December also for comparison purposes as opposed to the prime period for big Nor'easters.

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Consider the calendar.   Then consider the audacity of being pissed off with under 10 inches.  Human nature and I am as big a snow weenie as they come.  But I’m a student of my climo.   If I get 5-6 inches I’ll be happy,   Of course if I get 18 I’ll be happier...lol.

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18 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

ouch, no kidding.....just yesterday we were dancing with 12+ on the Euro, now we can't even crack 6 inches...We might need to enjoy our 2-4 tomorrow afternoon.

Im not sure I would trust this for CT. It showed a snow hole with not much precip through the state. All we need is a subtle placement change for the new low, and, we will get more snow in the state. Patience my friends. I do believe we will be getting more than modeled. The precip should be more robust once Monday comes along.

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Just now, weathafella said:

Consider the calendar.   Then consider the audacity of being pissed off with under 10 inches.  Human nature and I am as big a snow weenie as they come.  But I’m a student of my climo.   If I get 5-6 inches I’ll be happy,   Of course if I get 18 I’ll be happier...lol.

Yep. If I wake up to everything covered Tuesday morning and can’t see grass, it’s a win. So hard to get a biggie on 12/1. AFN can have it this early. Congrats them.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems like we do it 6 out of 10 years. Think back to the last 10 years. Lots of them 

No not this early. You have last year and October 2011...that's it. 

Nov 2012 did have 6"+ for interior elevations but it wasn't that widespread. Nov 2014 was a smaller area in SNE over 6".  (Basically just Berkshires and ORH hills)

This is also a lot higher end too than last year or Nov 2012/2014. There's potential for some pretty big amounts of it goes well. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

No not this early. You have last year and October 2011...that's it. 

Nov 2012 did have 6"+ for interior elevations but it wasn't that widespread. Nov 2014 was a smaller area in SNE over 6".  (Basically just Berkshires and ORH hills)

This is also a lot higher end too than last year or Nov 2012/2014. There's potential for some pretty big amounts of it goes well. 

Kev forgets how rare for this time period this really is

Screenshot_20191130-123448_Chrome.jpg

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