dryslot Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: In my experience the NBM is typically too high on snow ratios and too low on max wet bulb temps aloft. So I usually don't like it because I get too much snow in the forecast relative to what I'm expecting. Here the issue seems to be surface temps (NBM has a cap above which it doesn't accumulate snow) and mid level drying. It actually has more QPF than NWS forecasts, so I would guess it's producing a lot of drizzle/freezing drizzle in those 6 hour periods and reducing snowfall as result. When are you on the desk? Short term or Long term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: In my experience the NBM is typically too high on snow ratios and too low on max wet bulb temps aloft. So I usually don't like it because I get too much snow in the forecast relative to what I'm expecting. Here the issue seems to be surface temps (NBM has a cap above which it doesn't accumulate snow) and mid level drying. It actually has more QPF than NWS forecasts, so I would guess it's producing a lot of drizzle/freezing drizzle in those 6 hour periods and reducing snowfall as result. This is quite nice for early Dec 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: This concerns me the fact that it doesn’t show any snow for the city. I don’t know how good this model is? Don't expect much, but look at the 51hr stamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Don't expect much, but look at the 51hr stamp. 51hr stamp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 6 minutes ago, CT Rain said: RPM with about 2" in Tolland Your whole map wouldn't be doing so hot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 That map only goes out to hr 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: When are you on the desk? Short term or Long term? I'm on the desk this evening and tomorrow evening. So I get the last update before flakes fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: This is quite nice for early Dec Wow..that Has me at 82% for over 6 inches, I wouldn’t have thought that. But it’s certainly encouraging nonetheless. Thanks for posting Ginx. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: That map only goes out to hr 51 Decent model agreement that that's all eastern CT is going to get 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: 51hr stamp? Only goes out to 51. Snow hasn't even started in the Euro by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: I'm on the desk this evening and tomorrow evening. So I get the last update before flakes fly. Should have some work to do on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Wow..that Has me at 82% for over 6 inches, I wouldn’t have thought that. But it’s certainly encouraging nonetheless. Thanks for posting Ginx. No problem brutha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Absolutely. I get that it’s what we would love to have happen, but that’s a whole different thing from what Actually DOES happen in early December. At least we will have snowcover on the ground until Christmas, maybe even March. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Sugarloaf1989 said: At least we will have snowcover on the ground until Christmas, maybe even March. Conservatively. Can always extend as needed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Wall to Wall, Belly to Belly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Wall to Wall, Belly to Belly. Maybe.. All it takes is one hellish thaw. Unless you live in the Glen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Logan11 said: Maybe.. All it takes is one hellish thaw. Unless you live in the Glen. Which you and i do not.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 10 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said: You dont see this get used to much but i imagine they are going with 24hr totals for this storm, in some places 12 or 24 won't matter. But for CT and surrounding locales probably need the 24 threshold. I still like 12-25-02 for the best fitting analog. Surface track, H5 and H7 are very close throughout the duration. 12-07-03 might be the top analog for the storm at the 72 hour panel but subjectively, 12-25-02 makes more sense to me. Plus the airmass is closer to that storm and no 12-07-03 Depends on the office philosophy. Sometimes it's more convenient for headlines to use a 24 hour criteria, but GYX philosophy has always been that 6 inches of snow that is drawn out over 24 hours is maybe more impactful than 12 hours. Because the plows are out longer, removal takes longer, etc. 10 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I see they upgraded ORH hills to WSW. Definitely a philosophy issue with me. The long lead time warnings are just a pet peeve of mine, nothing drives me crazier. Except maybe stealing my half and half. But I think of warnings as go time. That's when we make a final call on snow totals. And right now I can't tell you with any high confidence whether some of those zones are going to get 4-6" with a lot of mixing, or 12-18" and naked snow angels. In my mind issuing a warning for 8-12" of snow that ends up being 4" or 16" is not that great a forecast. And sure things look good now, but we still have a half a dozen model runs and several ensembles left before it starts. They'll probably end up working out for most of those zones, but in my opinion it's a false confidence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Nammy . Good front end thump basically Ma Border North Nam winds up the 7H low a tad sooner on 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 39 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol exactly. Some folks have such skewed memories/or ideas about what happens and what used to happen. I don’t ever get Kev’s take on any of that stuff...it’s just so inaccurate, and downright misleading. Exactly. …..such as his claim that November is a winter month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Gorgeous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Nammy . Good front end thump. Folks in CT don't share your enthusiasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Nam cranks for NY state and NJ during day Monday. Gonna be some good bands with that 7H lift on NW side of low Gives Rick in Knox about 12 inches (on top of the 8 from WAA) Monday day for a total of 20 by 0z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Gorgeous Congrats manhattan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 What an abysmal run for CT. Congrats to NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: This is quite nice for early Dec Steady as she goes. 8-12” Those using the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 That is just a sick snow hole over the entire state of Connecticut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 All models in agreement with a UK look. Tucked and then pukes the deform to CNE, NY, and bent back to NEPA into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Steady as she goes. 8-12” Those using the NAM Is round 2 still the meat and potatoes compared to round 1? I think you said that 3 or 4 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: All models in agreement with a UK look. Tucked and then pukes the deform to CNE, NY, and bent back to NEPA into NYC. Total Burial looks likely just West of Albany where the 7H pivots. I dont see how this area doesn't see at least 15" Nam gives them 30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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