Torch Tiger Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, Hoth said: Let the SE ticks commence. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I will take the 06z NAM all day long. I’m taking it in the bathroom and wipe my azz with it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Most likely. Was just shocked to see how warm the mid-levels were with that heavy WAA precip. 3km is warmer than the 12km. Idk if I buy it being that warm, but I wouldn’t just toss it like he did...maybe keep it in the back of my mind and see how the 12z models trend way upstairs. The 3k even tries to mix up to CON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 rgem goes nuts with the ccb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: rgem goes nuts with the ccb. Still think its thermals look a little off inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Hopefully we'll see some shifts SE with the next set. IIRC correctly, the Messenger ticks were most pronounced as the event was unfolding (citing a lot of RUC and radar images), along with comments along the lines of 'like the NAM showed 2 days ago'. I'd just whimper into my coffee as this occurred. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Eagerly awaiting some messenger ticks. Trends have been, well as Scooter put it, poopy. Those mid levels are cooking this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: Hopefully we'll see some shifts SE with the next set. IIRC correctly, the Messenger ticks were most pronounced as the event was unfolding (citing a lot of RUC and radar images), along with comments along the lines of 'like the NAM showed 2 days ago'. I'd just whimper into my coffee as this occurred. Lol, less wiggle room to handle those error bars in your old hood, Mike. Sip your coffee with confidence, even élan, for this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Congrats, Chris and Dave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Big 12z runs today Nam is very good w thermals / mixing so that better be a burp or we got issues I like watching WPC snow probs as well. They got Nashua At 85% 8” 40% 12” as of 5am update 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Euro is really targeting Dendrite WSW to Albany area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Albany catching up to EMA past couple winters with the big events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro is really targeting Dendrite WSW to Albany area. 6z Euro? What are it’s thermals for WAA thump near NH border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 the last time I remember real ull snows after a solid waa thump was dec 08...7-8 inches down here on the front end and another 3 inches over the next day and a half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 6Z euro looks better for the 2nd round as the low gets going S LI. Main focus is W areas though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro is really targeting Dendrite WSW to Albany area. From there through the Berks/NW CT this will be something. Being tucked as it's slated, unless something crazy like the 00z NAM plays out, it will go down as a 'solid start' for the bulk of SNE. Nice way to start the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 12 minutes ago, BrianW said: Kbed being more than LWM makes no sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 46 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: rgem goes nuts with the ccb. That to me seems very likely. Remember East inflow. The ULL qpf will be undernodeled. I can think of a bunch of ULL that went out south of LI that gon wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Kbed being more than LWM makes no sense. Natick more than ORH? Must be due to qpf placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 48 minutes ago, dendrite said: 3km is warmer than the 12km. Idk if I buy it being that warm, but I wouldn’t just toss it like he did...maybe keep it in the back of my mind and see how the 12z models trend way upstairs. The 3k even tries to mix up to CON. An inch by my area? Tossed as far as the eye can see. I actually forecasted some sleet into s NH, but those totals are absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Today should be make or break Thankfully I work till 1230 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said: For this area, jmo heavy caution flags waving south of the pike/ E MA/RI. I'm not sure if you've noticed but we've been waving caution flags the last week. Some weenies have continued green flag racing. They will inevitably crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 19 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 6z Euro? What are it’s thermals for WAA thump near NH border It's all snow up there on the thump. Basically N of pike looks pretty snowy on 06z euro for the WCB. It is trending a little better with the ULL snows too. Starting to tighten it up a bit. Best zone is from dendrite to ALB as Scooter said, but it starts trying to wrap into SNE as we go through Monday night. I could see an additional several inches for many. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Sticking to 3-6" BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It's all snow up there on the thump. Basically N of pike looks pretty snowy on 06z euro for the WCB. It is trending a little better with the ULL snows too. Starting to tighten it up a bit. Best zone is from dendrite to ALB as Scooter said, but it starts trying to wrap into SNE as we go through Monday night. I could see an additional several inches for many. How did it trend from 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 11 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said: 1-3 for New York City? Lol you guys are so biased! biased...more like intelligent. Ray is a phenomenal forecaster who uses absolutely zero bias in his forecasts. He devotes a great deal of time into making (and what usually end up being) very solid calls. Go stick to your ridiculous snow maps and let the people who actually forecast based on science/meteorology do their thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's all snow up there on the thump. Basically N of pike looks pretty snowy on 06z euro for the WCB. It is trending a little better with the ULL snows too. Starting to tighten it up a bit. Best zone is from dendrite to ALB as Scooter said, but it starts trying to wrap into SNE as we go through Monday night. I could see an additional several inches for many. Will do you believe the ULL and it’s associated WCB are still the biggest wildcard left with this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: An inch by my area? Tossed as far as the eye can see. I actually forecasted some sleet into s NH, but those totals are absurd. You know how the nammy works...it’s usually the warmest in that 700-825 layer with WAA. It seems to verify about half the time. But the 3k is a good 1-2C warmer than it’s lower res cousin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: You know how the nammy works...it’s usually the warmest in that 700-825 layer with WAA. It seems to verify about half the time. But the 3k is a good 1-2C warmer than it’s lower res cousin. No way I'm getting 1". Tossed. I have no issues with the 12km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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