ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Will do you believe the ULL and it’s associated WCB are still the biggest wildcard left with this system ULL and CCB you mean? WCB is the stuff Sunday night. ULL is def a huge wildcard. The WCB thump still has thermals to work out too but we can be pretty confident in a good qpf burst now with that. The qpf with the ULL is still pretty uncertain for a lot of the forum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That to me seems very likely. Remember East inflow. The ULL qpf will be undernodeled. I can think of a bunch of ULL that went out south of LI that gon wild It’s a colder look too. Accept the taint (even embrace it) and hopefully we can minimize the dry air aloft when the ccb gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: No way I'm getting 1". Tossed. I have no issues with the 12km NAM. You'd prob get 2-3" of sleet anyway on that, lol. With how thin the warm layer is, it would probably be at least 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Already some decent convection just west of the MS this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You'd prob get 2-3" of sleet anyway on that, lol. With how thin the warm layer is, it would probably be at least 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 sleet. I mean, it has the Berkshires getting 3" and Albany like 7-8"...laughable. I'm not sure why Brian doesn't feel it should be tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 32 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: 6Z euro looks better for the 2nd round as the low gets going S LI. Main focus is W areas though. 6z has the lowest amount of snow for this area in the past 36 hours of Euro modeling...however just to the west was almost double, so lets shift the whole thing to the south and east please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Spanks45 said: 6z has the lowest amount of snow for this area in the past 36 hours of Euro modeling...however just to the west was almost double, so lets shift the whole thing to the south and east please. UK has lead the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mean, it has the Berkshires getting 3" and Albany like 7-8"...laughable. I'm not sure why Brian doesn't feel it should be tossed. Well, the Euro doesn’t really have any sleet contamination N of the CT border when there could def be some. I would use a pinch of Nammie in my recipie. Def not verbatim though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You'd prob get 2-3" of sleet anyway on that, lol. With how thin the warm layer is, it would probably be at least 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 sleet. Probably not even cold enough aloft for nucleation...lol. It has BED reaching -2C at H65. I agree with Ray...toss that for now. The 12km is warm enough for a higher end goalpost. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mean, it has the Berkshires getting 3" and Albany like 7-8"...laughable. I'm not sure why Brian doesn't feel it should be tossed. As it stands now ...yes but if this is not a one off and a trend w thermals (where nam has lead the way numerous times ) we need to watch future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: 6z has the lowest amount of snow for this area in the past 36 hours of Euro modeling...however just to the west was almost double, so lets shift the whole thing to the south and east please. How much did it show for western CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Well, the Euro doesn’t really have any sleet contamination N of the CT border when there could def be some. I would use a pinch of Nammie in my recipie. Def not verbatim though I did factor it in...I said some sleet to NH...but those amounts are tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Probably not even cold enough aloft for nucleation...lol. It has BED reaching -2C at H65. I agree with Ray...toss that for now. The 12km is warm enough for a higher end goalpost. -2 at 650? Lol Yeah that's tossed. I can def see pingers reaching across the NH border but I think that's in a scenario where the consequences are paid first...in the form of a huge thump in NE MA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: -2 at 650? Lol Yeah that's tossed. I can def see pingers reaching across the NH border but I think that's in a scenario where the consequences are paid first...in the form of a huge thump in NE MA. Did 06z euro trend worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: UK has lead the way. Lead the way to what, the 2' in Scranton that will never fall? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mean, it has the Berkshires getting 3" and Albany like 7-8"...laughable. I'm not sure why Brian doesn't feel it should be tossed. Meh...you know how these systems go. Just when everyone things they have it figured out we get some wtf’s as it starts playing out. I’m not saying it’s right...just saying if we wake up Mon morning and it’s a peltfest up to Tippy I wouldn’t be surprised either. Basically I lean way more on your side, but from a probabilistic perspective I give it a 5% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Meh...you know how these systems go. Just when everyone things they have it figured out we get some wtf’s as it starts playing out. I’m not saying it’s right...just saying if we wake up Mon morning and it’s a peltfest up to Tippy I wouldn’t be surprised either. Basically I lean way more on your side, but from a probabilistic perspective I give it a 5% chance. Gotcha. I misunderstood you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: -2 at 650? Lol Yeah that's tossed. I can def see pingers reaching across the NH border but I think that's in a scenario where the consequences are paid first...in the form of a huge thump in NE MA. It’s kinda funny to even see modeled. It’s like July up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Lead the way to what, the 2' in Scranton that will never fall? The tucked in warmer look. Don’t be so snow map driven. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Meh...you know how these systems go. Just when everyone things they have it figured out we get some wtf’s as it starts playing out. I’m not saying it’s right...just saying if we wake up Mon morning and it’s a peltfest up to Tippy I wouldn’t be surprised either. Basically I lean way more on your side, but from a probabilistic perspective I give it a 5% chance. I really only feel super confident *north* of the Pike. Latitude more important than anything in the east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Did 06z euro trend worse? If anything it looked a little more robust on the front end for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The tucked in warmer look. Don’t be so snow map driven. I never argued with the tucked look. I have NYS jackpotting. I argued with the close off so far south, which skunked ne areas. Euro as of 00z was trending away from that with much heavier snow into Maine due to a slower maturation. You don't understand my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The tucked in warmer look. Don’t be so snow map driven. We'll see. Ukie had it tucked in solidly south of LI off the coast of ACY. I don't think that's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: If anything it looked a little more robust on the front end for you. Did round 2 trend west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I never argued with the tucked look. I have NYS jackpotting. I argued with the close off so far south, which skunked ne areas. Euro as of 00z was trending away from that with much heavier snow into Maine due to a slower maturation. You don't understand my point. I do understand your point so I hope your “models like to capture this too soon” theory works its magic here. We need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: We'll see. Ukie had it tucked in solidly south of LI off the coast of ACY. I don't think that's happening. Its off the walls and extreme. Its def too far west to be a sne HECS, but UK is too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 This ought to be one hell of a festive day of model watching. I think the trends and the typical model biases will show their cards today but in the end I think we do ok. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Did round 2 trend west? No. Might have trended slightly north if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its off the walls and extreme. Its def too far west to be a sne HECS, but UK is too much. Everything has moved to that idea but agree it’s too far. Expect a bounce back today. Pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I do understand your point so I hope your “models like to capture this too soon” theory works its magic here. We need it. It already is if you look at the euro, but the problem remains that the low tracks too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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