December 2019 Discussion

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I don't expect much snow.

Complicated 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

meh

Your not Dave

[dryslot]

Don't be a dave bob...........

[CoastalWx]

Could be a fairly high impact event if the guidance is correct. Long duration.

[ineedsnow]

Looks like a 34 degree Rainer here

[dryslot]

Yeah this is looking to get prolonged from the 30th-1st

[rimetree]

Euro looks like snow to sleet back to snow scenario for here. Can do without ZR...2008 was a disaster.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Could be a fairly high impact event if the guidance is correct. Long duration.

The CAA from the northeast is one of the strongest I've ever seen in a winter storm. Almost like a brutal BDF in spring. It could be a situation where a lot of people start as rain and then it flips to ZR and sleet and maybe even some snow up near Ray. 

[Bostonseminole]

idk euro clown maps don't looks worst for frozen.. except SE MA

[dryslot]

I would just like to be able to see more upper level charts for the Euro, That's the only part that blows is the limited amount that's available.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The CAA from the northeast is one of the strongest I've ever seen in a winter storm. Almost like a brutal BDF in spring. It could be a situation where a lot of people start as rain and then it flips to ZR and sleet and maybe even some snow up near Ray. 

Last one I can recall was March 2013. Not sure if it’s as strong and mid levels were cooler then, but it helped us drop below freezing during the first part of it. Wish I could see levels from 900mb and below on euro. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Looks like a 34 degree Rainer here

I think you’d be below freezing during a chunk of it. 

[eduggs]

There's really pronounced upper level divergence south of SNE starting around Monday on most guidance.  That definitely seems to match the developing surface reflection and cold northerly surface drain.  Too bad there's not much mid level redevelopment in the same area to more fully cool the column and wrap in some more moisture.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The CAA from the northeast is one of the strongest I've ever seen in a winter storm. Almost like a brutal BDF in spring. It could be a situation where a lot of people start as rain and then it flips to ZR and sleet and maybe even some snow up near Ray. 

Yea, extended period of Frz Rain looking pretty unlikely here, thankfully.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, dryslot said:

I would just like to be able to see more upper level charts for the Euro, That's the only part that blows is the limited amount that's available.

Complicated 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS finally gave up on the warm sector torch. 

Not to be a dick and toot horns or nothin' but ... I mentioned two days ago in this thread .. somewhere, that climo alone was not in favor of the GFS solutions, then. 

The other aspect is that this system is actually more than merely a trough/closed broad Lakes vortex - it's really in totality a REX or quasi-REX structure with attendant blocking up higher over JB - this sort of 'closed system' is mutually reinforcing... That alone, this wasn't ever going to be about a low cutter -

This is in total behaving like a -NAO west based, but technically...it's neither a west based NAO or east based/+PNAP... But just a straight up anomaly.  The GFS - I don't intuit - is the right guy for handling that.  For one, the model has a mid range progressivity bias that is pretty clear to those of us that are familiar with modeling behavior... and REX in general is not really conducive to pancaking/fast flow...  so it's anomaly relative to the flow, too - neither of which the GFS is really cut for...

Also, the more that Lakes vortex attempts to move N of our latitude, only increasing the tucking/+PP air mass potential over Ontario, so it really is almost physically impossible to warm sector given the present modeled synopsis, geography/topography and planetary circumstances et al... 

I agree with Ray or whomever it was that said this looks more icy to me. That was apparent back then too, hasn't changed... Altho...phoo...that's one helluva tuck in the 00z Euro. That may actually get the cold layer so damn deep that we have those micro needles and plate production happening in a roaring sleet/ZR column.   Total mess...  "gray ice storm" more so than clear.

[CoastalWx]

I’ll take the under on snow in those things. It’s a torch at 700mb so you know somewhere is a warm layer from 800mb on up. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Euro clownage....just for the astute @weathafella

[Hoth]

Meh down here unless cold press really performs. Chance of ice ice baby. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, eduggs said:

There's really pronounced upper level divergence south of SNE starting around Monday on most guidance.  That definitely seems to match the developing surface reflection and cold northerly surface drain.  Too bad there's not much mid level redevelopment in the same area to more fully cool the column and wrap in some more moisture.

Exactly. 

Until I see more aggressive mid level redevelopment, I'll remain relatively bearish of snow snowfall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll take the under on snow in those things. It’s a torch at 700mb so you know somewhere is a warm layer from 800mb on up. 

I buy the 2-3" that the EURO clown gives me...maybe it ends up less, but that is reasonable.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I buy the 2-3" that the EURO clown gives me.

You'd prob get that alone in pixie dust and sleet...I agree with Tip that once you are prob N of pike on that setup, you'd prob have crappy ice crystals trying to grow underneath the warm layer. There's prob like a -6 or -7 layer in there around 900-925. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You'd prob get that alone in pixie dust and sleet...I agree with Tip that once you are prob N of pike on that setup, you'd prob have crappy ice crystals trying to grow underneath the warm layer. There's prob like a -6 or -7 layer in there around 900-925. 

2-5" as of now...that is the first guess I went with early this AM.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I buy the 2-3" that the EURO clown gives me...maybe it ends up less, but that is reasonable.

It was more for those things Steve posted. Snow looked pretty far to the southwest. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It was more for those things Steve posted. Snow looked pretty far to the southwest. 

Oh, yea.....I just use those P-type graphics as window dressing in the blog, but don't really incorporate them into a forecast.

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Could be a fairly high impact event if the guidance is correct. Long duration.

Would this be more likely to be elevated ice like 08, or even valleys?

[Snowcrazed71]

So. When does it look like we will have our next Snow potential for the northeast/SNE? 1/6?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

So. When does it look like we will have our next Snow potential for the northeast/SNE? 1/6?

Depending on where in the Northeast/SNE 12/30-12/31.    

[40/70 Benchmark]

12z EURO (left) is much wetter than 00z(right)....wow....nearly 2" here.

[weathafella]

Interesting out days 6-10.  Tanuary on hold