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Bob Chill

December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

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5 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like the 12z GGEM just about for the same period

Yeah....not a crush job or anything but would get most on the board.  Would be a nice start to the season and more proof Dec is not going as planned for many forecasts and seasonal models.

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Looks like a large cutter going to be coming for next weekend on the EURO... HP is moving out too quickly... but I wouldn't mind it if we can get the Day 4-5 event that the 12z EURO suggests

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like a large cutter going to be coming for next weekend on the EURO... HP is moving out too quickly... but I wouldn't mind it if we can get the Day 4-5 event that the 12z EURO suggests

Weekend deal might cut to Chicago at this rate. I’ll take Wednesday and hug that for now. Plenty of time for the weekend thing to correct itself to something we like better.  :weenie:

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3 hours ago, poolz1 said:

Yeah....not a crush job or anything but would get most on the board.  Would be a nice start to the season and more proof Dec is not going as planned for many forecasts and seasonal models.

I’ve tried to emphasize since Sept that Dec will be cold and a persistsent occurrence and refreshment of well placed high pressure would occur. The highs are departing nicely as to not  set up a se ridge and this was predicted also. I’m far less confident than most seem to be about what Causes weather patterns but we do have the ability to assess that”when this happens....what follows is that”

High pressures keep showing up and then replenishing. Shoot some low pressures up our way and potential exists. No cold, no snow. High pressure set ups are the key, the moisture will almost always  be present.

 

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Just now, Scraff said:

Weekend deal might cut to Chicago at this rate. I’ll take Wednesday and hug that for now. Plenty of time for the weekend thing to correct itself to something we like better.  :weenie:

Is Wednesday not a similar setup to what happened a couple weeks ago (cant remeber exact date) but models were showing a wave on the front and snow and it did not materialize that way...I just dont buy these frontal wave snows that often.

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Euro, gfs, and GGEM all giving me “wait for the storm after the storm” vibes for D11-13. Next weekends fail storm rotates into the 50-50 zone, wave breaks, pops a transient -NAO, and it’s game on. :weenie:

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Euro, gfs, and GGEM all giving me “wait for the storm after the storm” vibes for D11-13. Next weekends fail storm rotates into the 50-50 zone, wave breaks, pops a transient -NAO, and it’s game on. :weenie:

I was seeing that too. Something tells me one or two are going to break right in the upcoming pattern. Definitely love the cold air filtering on this side of the pole in the extended. I might miss my snow chance being home, but would love for y'all to score one way or another. At this rate, ice storm potential keeps going up in these parts the longer this pattern holds. Lots of PAC energy to work with. All about timing for here too. Let's Roll

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro, gfs, and GGEM all giving me “wait for the storm after the storm” vibes for D11-13. Next weekends fail storm rotates into the 50-50 zone, wave breaks, pops a transient -NAO, and it’s game on. :weenie:

I like how you roll.  I know some cringe at the "storm after the storm" thing but that is a typical progression for us. 

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54 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Yep...that'll do.  13-14 style....

Bzni4Gi.png

That's not bad...but what made 13-14 so rare was that the fronts kept stalling and elongating west to east through our area allowing waves to ride along them.  Part of that was how the TPV kept setting up across to our north.  The more w-e oriented we can get the front the better chance of something.  

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

GEPS has the idea of the scand ridge pressuring the TPV over the top but with a better Pacific too. 

GEPS has the Aleutian Low anchored as well....doesnt budge entire run. We take.

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Quick look at the EPS for late Tuesday into Wednesday, there's been a noticeable shift in the timing of the front with quicker progression as thicknesses fall and surface temps have seen a downward trend for the overnight time frame. Below is the model difference from the previous run. Notice the mean is around 2-4F cooler than the last run (00z). Much has to do with the progression of the front, which is important if the area wants to see some anafrontal action. Still a ways away, but that's a nice trend in mean guidance. 

euro_2mTempChange.thumb.png.e24dcddee84605336898a6fdf4ce32d9.png

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Eps is on board with scand ridging building day 10-15 also. It’s now universal across guidance. That’s important imo because it’s often a precursor to getting out of the crappy NAO look we’re stuck in now. Wave breaking on our side can temporarily help but if we want a permanent flip displacing the entire PV from ridging over the top is a good way to do it. 

ETA. If it is a sign of a flip we are ahead of past years that flipped and with a much more favorable temperature profile and pac pattern then recently. Something to watch with long range trends. 

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Eps definitely has a GL low next weekend that’s causing issues, but it way east of the op still with the low. Mean low position is just off NJ coast next Sunday. Would have to see individual members, but I’d guess there are some hits in there still.

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33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Eps definitely has a GL low next weekend that’s causing issues, but it way east of the op still with the low. Mean low position is just off NJ coast next Sunday. Would have to see individual members, but I’d guess there are some hits in there still.

If we see something, it will be because of something different with the GL Low. I have been "fearing" its interaction since things started going bad. If that is wrongly forecasted we have a shot at something. Nothing is easy on these set ups, so, as Bob says, if we accidentally get something to break our way, it will be really cool!

 

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46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Eps is on board with scand ridging building day 10-15 also. It’s now universal across guidance. That’s important imo because it’s often a precursor to getting out of the crappy NAO look we’re stuck in now. Wave breaking on our side can temporarily help but if we want a permanent flip displacing the entire PV from ridging over the top is a good way to do it. 

ETA. If it is a sign of a flip we are ahead of past years that flipped and with a much more favorable temperature profile and pac pattern then recently. Something to watch with long range trends. 

How predictable is this Scandinavian Ridge moving into the NAO region? Is it a lock when you see it ie the progression? 

With that said, we probably shouldn't start popping champagne bottles until that look is inside 7 or 8 days. We did this last year chasing the NAO at range with unanimous agreement at times. Exercise caution imo until lead time lessens. This year does have a different feel/vibe anyway.

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

How predictable is this Scandinavian Ridge moving into the NAO region? Is it a lock when you see it ie the progression? 

With that said, we probably shouldn't start popping champagne bottles until that look is inside 7 or 8 days. We did this last year chasing the NAO at range with unanimous agreement at times. Exercise caution imo until lead time lessens. This year does have a different feel/vibe anyway.

Nothing is ever a lock when it comes to predicting a -NAO. We will know when it happens in real time.

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Nothing is ever a lock when it comes to predicting a -NAO. We will know when it happens in real time.

I was more trying to ask is this the most typical progression for a -NAO development. This fall it seemed we were getting either the WAR feeding it at times when the --NAO did develop or more recently the EPO ridge spread East and fed the Western NAO region. Haven't seen the Scandinavian evolution. Is this more of a deep winter thing?

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47 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I was more trying to ask is this the most typical progression for a -NAO development. This fall it seemed we were getting either the WAR feeding it at times when the --NAO did develop or more recently the EPO ridge spread East and fed the Western NAO region. Haven't seen the Scandinavian evolution. Is this more of a deep winter thing?

I think a lot of what we have seen lately (at verification) is transient ridging in the NAO space as a result of pieces of the TPV rotating through and pumping up a ridge there. Not that that is a bad thing, but it is really a bootleg/transient -NAO and not a true block. If the overall pattern is supportive, we can score with that, but timing is critical. That's my take.

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If we could get that energy thats down  in Texas to join the party it could enhance Tuesday/ Wednesday somewhat. Right now it doesn't want to get involved. 

gfs_z500_vort_us_19.png

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8 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

If we could get that energy thats down  in Texas to join the party it could enhance Tuesday/ Wednesday somewhat. Right now it doesn't want to get involved. 

 

Yup. I mentioned this after the 12z run.

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