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November 2019 discussion


weathafella
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On the 0z EPS 500mb height anomalies looking at ~240-hours out...would that configuration east of Greenland into Europe be considered an east-based -NAO? Trying to visualize the NAO domain here but it almost seems that the core of the anomalies may be outside of the NAO domain? What is the other teleconnection which encompasses that part of the world...is that the EA/WR? 

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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like some finger lake bands near Ithaca right now. Not sure it’s directly from them, but those lakes certainly enhancing them. 

Yes that is finger lake effect snow. Pretty classic. Need about 330-340 flow which is what they have. It's usually best if you have he Georgian bay connection going over the top of a weak ridge but they don't really have that this morning so the snow showers prob aren't too heavy. 

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59 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Record November cold usually results in record warmth later on.....

Haha...I wonder what the narrative would be if it was a furnace November. I somehow doubt it would be "we're going to get record cold this winter."

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Heh... I think cold's interesting though.  I think hot's interesting too.  There are synoptic events associated to either that are identifiable, particularly when either is extreme/challenge climatology over a region - and then adding time spans to those unusual cold or hot periods underscores the value, that uniquely convergent parameters have circumstantially come together to engender either. 

It's kind of like synergy on the ocean and this 'rogue wave' phenomenon?  Think about it that way for a moment.  You have this active sea-surface with an average swell height of 24' ...then, due to wave mechanics, suddenly the ocean becomes devoid of 24' swells in a vicinity .. in lieu of one giant wave toppling some 70' out of seeming nowhere.  

There are events in the atmosphere that are sort of metaphoric of that phenomenon  - in fact, maybe more than merely metaphoric considering. In either the oceanic or atmospheric cases, there is a kind of gestalt where the results appears more than than the sum of their constituent parts.  The 'Super storm 1993' event was an atmospheric rogue wave.  The 1995 and 2012 heat waves in the Midwest were also positive feed-back scenarios where components came together uniquely.  The Cleveland Super Bomb and perhaps the one later that year here along the New England coast, were examples of synergy, too.  I can remember some some cold waves that were truly memorable.  Heck, the entire February 2015 multi-storm assault... some of which blew wind and carried about in single digit cold over the NE U.S. was rather rogue-ish. 

Heat and cold waves have their place.  They are identifiable. They are impacting.  But this is a very rational opine - obviously we all have our personal druthers, which seldom reflect the purely rational frame of mind, to put it nicely.  From a purely scientific perspective however, I think it's interesting that it's 10 to 18 F across the region prior to Thanks Giving - it opens the door to a whole spectrum of questions related to climate and climate change.  Lot's of room for discovery.    

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

There is nothing remotely good about cold. And all those people who prance around screaming, "I'd rather be cold then hot. You can always add clothes, you can't take them off"...GARBAGE...COMPLETE GARBAGE. What a ridiculous phrase. There is nothing good about cold. Nothing fun about shivering 

If you're shivering, you need more layers.  You can always add more layers when it's cold but what to do when it's hot any your body can't cool off?  For those that do outside work, that's a big deal.  You can be more productive when it's cold but there is a limit.  Extreme cold does limit outside activity but so does extreme hot.

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1 minute ago, MetHerb said:

If you're shivering, you need more layers.  You can always add more layers when it's cold but what to do when it's hot any your body can't cool off?  For those that do outside work, that's a big deal.  You can be more productive when it's cold but there is a limit.  Extreme cold does limit outside activity but so does extreme hot.

The kid weights 80lbs. You can watch a grain of rice go down his throat. 

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This is blue bomb time of the year, however ... and I wouldn't ever consider a D7 to D8 threat with any sense of immutability. 

This happens in March and April, too.   Mid and extended range systems will often materialize in runs as marginal-warm.  But as they system nears .. assuming it's real and is going to happen of course, the models nick 10th of a degree off the 850 mb thermal layout, and it starts to morph marginal-cool over subsequent runs.   What was once +1 to +3C ... ends up -1 to +1C at 850 mb.  The other aspect is that because there is no cold source below the 700 mb and the system is mostly mid level mechanics, the sounding tends to be 'isothermal' below 850 mb... So if it is 0 C at 850 in a coastal system that is east, that NW arc of the circulation envelope and cyclonic influence will tend to be 0 C at all sigma levels right plumb to the deck.  You end up big aggregate at 33 F ... and so on and so on, from an originally modeled +3 C, 850 mb miller A rainer. 

This system next week strikes me as possibly of that ilk.  Have to monitor it.  Because, already we are seeing some of that model modulation toward cooler profiles by the Euro and GGEM... very slight, run after run of erosion.  Two days ago, they were hinting at this miller A as warmer circulation comparing to now - and the game's afoot.   We'll see.  

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4 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

If you're shivering, you need more layers.  You can always add more layers when it's cold but what to do when it's hot any your body can't cool off?  For those that do outside work, that's a big deal.  You can be more productive when it's cold but there is a limit.  Extreme cold does limit outside activity but so does extreme hot.

I used to do outside work in the heat all the time and I've done it in the cold. Much prefer the heat than the cold. When it's hot you just pace yourself and make sure you drink plenty of water. Adding layers doesn't work as well as people think...unless you're wearing specialized equipment. Though you're absolutely right...it's the extremes where the impacts begin. 20's...30's that's right...70's...80's that's fine.

 

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Wizzy: Drives in the left lane not going a single mph over the speed limit and doesn’t care about holding up traffic, eats one McDonald’s burger as his only meal for the day, spiders give him Freddy Krueger like nightmares so he sleeps with a night lamp like a toddler, carries chapstick and hair gel in a male fanny pack, whips out his little weenie over soundings in Des Moines, and can’t stomach temps below 60F because it makes his tiny fragile core shivver. I feel bad for the woman who wins that prize of a man...if it ever happens.  

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