September 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Absolute nightmare pattern for anyone involved in horticulture. Another predicted precip event bites the dust at the last minute. Upton removed amounts from my point and click

[Cfa]

Topped out at 83 here. Dews in the 70’s made it feel closer to 90 though.

[bluewave]

The 93 max at Newark today was the 2nd highest temperature during the last 10 days of September. 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=CLIEWR&e=201909232042

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Highest Max Temperature Sep 21 to Sep 30	Missing Count
1	1970-09-30	94	0
2	1959-09-30	93	0
	1931-09-30	93	0
	2019-09-30	93	0

 

[uncle W]

On 9/11/2019 at 10:28 AM, uncle W said:

late summer early fall warm/hot spells with at least three straight days 80 or higher in NYC...

Year..consecutive 80+ Max.
1881..9/23-9/28......6...91
1891..10/3-10/5......3...86
1895..9/20-9/23......4...97
1898..10/3-10/5......3...81
1905..9/28-9/30......3...88
1914..9/20-9/24......5...95
1920..9/23-9/26......4...88
1921..9/28-9/30......3...87
1922..9/30-10/3......4...88
1927..9/30-10/2......3...90
1930..9/20-9/26......7...87
1934..9/23-9/27......5...83
1941..9/21-9/23......3...91
1941..10/4-10/6......3...94
1946..9/25-9/27......3...83
1946..10/4-10/7......4...87
1948..9/27-9/29......3...84
1949..10/9-10/12....4...88
1950..10/1-10/3......3...86
1951..9/19-9/23......5...85
1954..10/1-10/4......4...86
1954..10/11-10/14..4...87
1959..9/21-9/24......4...90
1959..9/27-9/30......4...83
1959..10/4-10/6......3...88
1961..9/22-9/25......4...90
1965..9/21-9/23......3...88

1967..10/3-10/5......3...86
1968..9/17-9/26....10...87
1968..10/1-10/3......3...85
1970..9/21-9/26......6...94
1972..9/25-9/27......3...86
1980..9/21-9/23......3...94
1984..9/23-9/25......3...86
2004..9/21-9/23......3...82
2007..9/25-9/27......3...87
2007..10/4-10/8......5...87
2010..9/22-9/25......4...89

2016..9/20-9/23......4...87

2016..10/17-10/19..3...85

2017..9/21-9/27......7...91

2019..9/21-9/23......3...89

2019 makes the list of late season three or more days 80 or above...I'm betting we get another one next week...

[forkyfork]

multiple warm surges followed by brief cool downs through the beginning of oct. i think at least one of them produces 90 at knyc as the park dries out more

[NYCweatherNOW]

It’s going to rain in my opinion!

[CIK62]

The EURO is even more 'wackerdo' than the GFS, with a 94* on Oct. 02!      At any rate summer like weather will end by Oct. 05.

[SACRUS]

9/23

EWR: 93
TEB: 92
PHL: 92
BLM: 91
New Bnswk: 90
ACY: 90
LGA: 90
NYC: 89
TTN: 89
JFK: 82
ISP: 81

[doncat]

Really no signs of dryness around here...Got in on some of the heavier rains earlier  in the month so  2.11" for the month...and with 70" the preceding 12 months, things look ok.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

32 minutes ago, doncat said:

Really no signs of dryness around here...Got in on some of the heavier rains earlier  in the month so  2.11" for the month...and with 70" the preceding 12 months, things look ok.

Really, really dry at home on the south shore. Trees starting to drop leaves. It’s a little better on the uws. I’ll be shocked, but of course happy if we crack .10” tonight.

[doncat]

9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Really, really dry at home on the south shore. Trees starting to drop leaves. It’s a little better on the uws. I’ll be shocked, but of course happy if we crack .10” tonight.

Yeah I see only 0.33" at Islip  past 26 days.

[donsutherland1]

Today saw temperatures rise into the upper 80s and lower to middle 90s across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. High temperatures included: Allentown: 90°; Baltimore: 95°; Boston: 92°; Harrisburg: 90°; New York City: 89°; Newark: 93°; Philadelphia: 92°; Richmond: 94°; Sterling: 94° (old record: 93°, 2005 and 2010); and, Washington, DC: 94°.

Today was the 57th time Baltimore recorded a 90° or above high temperature. Only 2010, with 59, had more. Today was Washington, DC's 59th 90° or warmer day this year, which is tied with 5 prior years for 3rd most such days during a year. Only 1980 and 2010, both with 67 such days, had more.

The excessive warmth in Boston provides yet another potential signal of at least one more significant bout of high temperatures for the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1872, Boston has had 10 prior years during which the temperature reached 90° or above during the September 20-30 period. In 6/10 (60%) cases, October 1-15 had a maximum temperature of 80° or above and in 4/10 (40%) cases, October 1-15 had a maximum temperature of 85° or above.

Courtesy of low sea ice, abnormal warmth continued to prevail in northern Alaska. There is an implied 93% probability that Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) will record its warmest September on record. It is possible that Utqiagvik could register its first 40° mean temperature for September. A 40.0° mean temperature would rank 30th out of 99 years for the warmest August on record). The existing monthly record of 37.7° has stood since 1998.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C. The recent strong cooling in Region 1+2 indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have continued to increase. Such a scenario is now more likely than not.

Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record 2 or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal.

The SOI was -4.45 today.

On September 19, the SOI fell to -35.30. Often an SOI figure at or below -30.00 during the second half of September has been followed by a warmer than normal October. 2002, which saw severe October blocking during which the Arctic Oscillation fell to as low as -5.098 on October 18, was an exception.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.701.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall.

Among those five cases, 2015 made a transition from predominantly negative AO values to predominantly positive ones during the fall. The combination of the AO's recent increase to the strongest positive values since April and some of the extended range guidance leave open a scenario where the AO is currently in the early stages of evolving to a predominantly positive regime. Such an outcome would also favor a warmer than normal fall and possible warm start to winter in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. This is merely a hypothetical discussion of one potential path toward winter. Many other variables are involved.

Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of 58.8°.

On September 22, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.727 (RMM). The September 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.464.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 93% and the probability of a monthly mean temperature of 70.0° or above is 55%. Should September 2019 have a mean temperature of 70.0° or above, 2019 would be the 5th consecutive year with such September warmth. Prior to the current stretch, the record was 2 consecutive years (1930 and 1931; 1970 and 1971; 1979 and 1980; and, 2010 and 2011).

[NYCweatherNOW]

Cold front coming in with a small chance of thunderstorm

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 91 here.

Current temp 79/DP 67/RH 66%

[Stormlover74]

Some light showers now

edit heavier shower now

[SRRTA22]

Mod to Heavy rain here

[CIK62]

Last 7 days of September are averaging 72degs., or about 8 degs. AN.

Month to date is  +1.2[70.5].      September should end near  +2.7[70.7].

 

[NYCweatherNOW]

Euro lost cmc and gfs overnight in regards to next weeks heat. It’s an outlier now and I’m beginning to think it may not happen, and quite frankly after experiencing the heat from yesterday I’ll say no thanks. Currently at 69 after most likely 0.20 inches of rain. Haven’t checked my station, but it did rain good around midnight here.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Euro lost cmc and gfs overnight in regards to next weeks heat. It’s an outlier now and I’m beginning to think it may not happen, and quite frankly after experiencing the heat from yesterday I’ll say no thanks. Currently at 69 after most likely 0.20 inches of rain. Haven’t checked my station, but it did rain good around midnight here.

Huh, all models show 80s to low 90s Sun-Thu next week plus Thu this week. 

That's record breaking type heat. The heat may finally break by next Friday.

[JustinRP37]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Huh, all models show 80s to low 90s Sun-Thu next week plus Thu this week. 

That's record breaking type heat. The heat may finally break by next Friday.

It's like a drumbeat. "The major warm-ups are over". I just don't understand. Even if we don't get to 90 this is still going to be an impressive stretch. To me 70s in December is just as interesting as the departures we will see later this week and next. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

.11” at both the park and here in wantagh. That’s absolutely not going to cut it. The only thing we have going for us to prevent a crippling drought is the lower evaporation rates and the end of the growing season. 

[binbisso]

There's no 90 degree heat in the next 7 days so don't know where people are getting that from. My forecast highs for Thursday Saturday Sunday and Monday are 82, 82, 79, and 76. And that's from 3 reliable Outlets there is a chance mid next week as the ridge moves East that we can get well into the 80s but that's way out there

[SACRUS]

35 minutes ago, binbisso said:

There's no 90 degree heat in the next 7 days so don't know where people are getting that from. My forecast highs for Thursday Saturday Sunday and Monday are 82, 82, 79, and 76. And that's from 3 reliable Outlets there is a chance mid next week as the ridge moves East that we can get well into the 80s but that's way out there

Wait till wed/thu and see the point and clicks.  90s look very possible Sat-Sun and again Tue-wed next week Mon warmer spots.  Cool-down around oct 5 may be temp with more warmth behind (not as warm-hot). Both this past Sat and Sun over perforemd.  Even the park got to 89 yesterday 3-4 above guidance.  

[SACRUS]

ECM surges 850 temps to 18C-20C Oct 2-3-4 (peak of the heat).  With mostly sunny conditions, even in early Oct, temps should get to mid-upper 90s in the warmer spots.  EWR 93 Sunday with 850 temps 16c.

[SACRUS]

Records October for reference

 

LGA:

10/1: 87 (1950)    
10/2: 87 (2002)    
10/3: 85 (2000)    
10/4: 86 (2013)    
10/5: 93 (1941)    
10/6: 92 (1941)   

EWR:

10/1: 85 (1986)    
10/2: 86 (2013)    
10/3: 85 (1950)    
10/4: 89 (2013)    
10/5: 93 (1941)    
10/6: 91 (1959)   

NYC:

10/1: 88 (1927)    
10/2: 90 (1927)    
10/3: 87 (1919)
10/4: 88 (1941)    
10/5: 94 (1941)    
10/6: 90 (1941)    
 

[Cfa]

0.09” fell overnight which brings my monthly total to just 0.52”.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This is just the latest version of the endless summer pattern we have been experiencing. Fall has seen the fastest rising temperatures around the region since 1981. 

Seasonal temperature increases F/ decade around the Northeast since 1981

LGA....SON....+0.9 F/Decade....DJF...+0.7....MAM...+0.4......JJA....+0.8

ALB.....SON....+0.9....................DJF...+0.9....MAM...+0.3......JJA....+0.8

PHL.....SON....+1.0....................DJF...+0.9...MAM...+0.8......JJA.....+0.8

 

I believe it’s a combo of warmer local water temps and less arctic sea ice. There is not a lag in cold air build in the arctic which effects down stream weather.

[the_other_guy]

Lots of yellow popping in central westchester.

 

Very pretty.

71F for the 11am hour.

 

Somebody better tell the weather outlets about the latest models… They are way off on temperatures for Saturday and Sunday if its going to be in the mid 90s.

[donsutherland1]

57 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Lots of yellow popping in central westchester.

 

Very pretty.

71F for the 11am hour.

 

Somebody better tell the weather outlets about the latest models… They are way off on temperatures for Saturday and Sunday if its going to be in the mid 90s.

The potential peak heat is for Tuesday-Thursday (October 1-3), assuming the latest guidance is accurate.

[frd]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I believe it’s a combo of warmer local water temps and less arctic sea ice. There is not a lag in cold air build in the arctic which effects down stream weather.

Wonder what March 1 st. to May 1 st would show for the past 5 to 10 year period . I would think a decline maybe . 

Winters seem to run deeper into the Spring and many times blocking lags and hits in March, April, and sometimes  May.