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September 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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1 hour ago, binbisso said:

Upton lowered my forecast highs for both today and Saturday to 78 and 80 respectively. There have been post on here saying that temperatures for these two days are going to be well into the 80s so what is Upton missing to be 5 + degrees lower then what the posters are saying.. I'm at 63 degrees at 8:45 a.m. it's going to be very hard to get well into the eighties today with the front progged to pass by mid to late afternoon

Temps quickly rising today-already 75 here and I'm not a hot spot. Today is easily 80 plus for most    Temps will exceed guidance Sat with the dry ground in my opinion.    

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah wow that's like 110-112+ for summer. 

We'll have to see if days like today and this weekend overperform by more than a degree. If they do then I'd lean towards those higher readings. 

Huge help from the flash drought.

In the long range all summer it showed multiple times Philly getting over 100 only to verify about 8 degrees cooler.  They track it over at another board.

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9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I really really hope we get some rain today, if we do not we are getting close to a damaging drought on the south shore we’re actual trees begin to die. 

 

9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I really really hope we get some rain today, if we do not we are getting close to a damaging drought on the south shore we’re actual trees begin to die. 

Radar looks decent out in PA-let's hope it holds together.

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40 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

 

Radar looks decent out in PA-let's hope it holds together.

From Upton's late morning AFD:

Showers are nearing Orange county and continue to move east into
the early afternoon. A shortwave trough swings across New
England today sending a fast moving cold front into the region.

Have increased PoPs to account for the latest radar trends. Also
have noted rising dew points advecting north from the NJ coast.
CAPE is beginning to increase with the higher moisture and
should reside mainly east of NYC later this afternoon,
supporting a line of low topped convection. Organized lift ahead
of shortwave energy passes to the north, but convergence along
the surface cold front will be the main factor in producing
showers this afternoon/early evening. A few lightning strikes
are possible and due to strong shear, gusty winds and an
isolated severe gust cannot be ruled out. SPC has placed Long
Island and Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather.
This line of convection should develop around 20z western Long
Island and southwest CT and quickly sweep through and be
offshore 23-00z. No concerns for any flooding due to the quick
movement of the system.
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83F here.

Two notes...I wanted to compare with others

1. Since the dryness started, as anyone else noticed the surge in mosquito activity? I am getting bitten in my garage!

2. I was in city last night. 78F at 10pm. Bronx 75F. As soon as we got to the entrance to Van Cortland Park 73F. Exit of Van Cortland Park 63F. 63F at home.

The Urban Heat Island is really very strong. It is scary how strong it is. The city no longer cools down at night. What are the long term effects of this? It cant be good!

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I personally haven’t noticed an uptick in mosquitos, but I was in CT yesterday and all along the highways I saw signs displaying “Triple E Advisory Avoid Outdoors at dusk and dawn”, I’d never heard of “EEE” but after googling it I never want to go back to CT.

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3 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

83F here.

Two notes...I wanted to compare with others

1. Since the dryness started, as anyone else noticed the surge in mosquito activity? I am getting bitten in my garage!

2. I was in city last night. 78F at 10pm. Bronx 75F. As soon as we got to the entrance to Van Cortland Park 73F. Exit of Van Cortland Park 63F. 63F at home.

The Urban Heat Island is really very strong. It is scary how strong it is. The city no longer cools down at night. What are the long term effects of this? It cant be good!

The urban heat island has always been there as long as there have been cities...but of course it is expanding as we continue to develop. Not much you can do about it I guess as people need places to live as the population increases. For some reason it seems to me to be downplayed when talking about our increasing temps. I see it here as my temps here on si  can be 10-15° lower at times than the urban areas.

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18 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I personally haven’t noticed an uptick in mosquitos, but I was in CT yesterday and all along the highways I saw signs displaying “Triple E Advisory Avoid Outdoors at dusk and dawn”, I’d never heard of “EEE” but after googling it I never want to go back to CT.

its in Eastern CT/RI and Eastern MA-so far no cases this far west

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4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Temps quickly rising today-already 75 here and I'm not a hot spot. Today is easily 80 plus for most    Temps will exceed guidance Sat with the dry ground in my opinion.    

My high temperature was 79 degrees today Upton was spot-on down to 77 now mostly cloudy rain just to my West. I have to say that Upton has a challenging time with forecast highs and lows with the geographic layout of our area. Anywhere north and east and even Northwest of New York City stayed mainly in the seventies 70s today many places in central and north central New Jersey had highs in  the mid-eighties.I believe Teterboro was the highest at 86. That's a big contrast in temps within such a short distance

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Newark continuing to climb the highest number of 80 degree days during the last 10 days of September list.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80 Sep 21 to Sep 30
Missing Count
1 2017-09-30 7 0
- 1959-09-30 7 0
2 1986-09-30 6 0
- 1970-09-30 6 0
- 1968-09-30 6 0
- 1961-09-30 6 0
- 1945-09-30 6 0
3 2011-09-30 5 0
- 2007-09-30 5 0
  2019-09-30 5 4

 

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