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August 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave

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3 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Bronx is about to get a severe thunderstorm. That’s one heck of a cell. imageproxy.php?img=&key=20fe2b78d4e66dff

67475511-3C09-4E2F-B3C2-2FA171D4E09C.png

Ah I missed it while at the beach, Robert Moses. so foggy over there took a long time to burn off, but turned out nice when it finally did. Everyone talking about this t storm that came through at home. No rain now, but lots of lightning in the distance. 

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Next 8 days are averaging 75.5degs., or 2degs. AN 

Month to date is  +0.6[76.5].         Should be   +1.0[76.2] by the 27th.

75.5* here at 6am.     75.7* at 7am.    76.7* at 8am with an unclean look/feel.    77.0* at 9am, Foggy <3.0miles.     Skew-T says this should clear before any rain near 5pm. 79.0* by 11am and hazy blue skies.

 

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10 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

The storms here have been accompanied by frequent lightning flashes this weekend, but almost no clearly visible bolts. I assume IC lightning is favored vs. CG with marginal lapse rates. Or maybe you just don't see them with the high dews/low LCLs? 

I was in NJ and there was a fair bit of C to G lightning that we could see from the GSP. It was a pretty good sized standalone cell to the east of the parkway with a nice rain column and high top. I like watching stuff like that evolve while I'm traveling.

 

Is it really going to be wet every day this week? One more beach day before the kids go back to school would be nice. Which day is most likely to be worth the effort and is early that much better to be worth the extra effort?

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26 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I was in NJ and there was a fair bit of C to G lightning that we could see from the GSP. It was a pretty good sized standalone cell to the east of the parkway with a nice rain column and high top. I like watching stuff like that evolve while I'm traveling.

 

Is it really going to be wet every day this week? One more beach day before the kids go back to school would be nice. Which day is most likely to be worth the effort and is early that much better to be worth the extra effort?

cold front goes through Wed/Thurs-so Friday would be the driest day....

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11 hours ago, psv88 said:

Storms blew up just to my east. Nice little cell in central Suffolk, I see the lightning. Good thing I watered the lawn. Commack has a rain shield the summer. Never seen anything like it.

 

81D41D78-6AC4-4710-9128-728A25697D2A.png

Blew up literally a mile or so to my east, after sliding just to my north by a fraction of a mile. Not a drop here, however the dew point dropped considerably after it passed.

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17 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Blew up literally a mile or so to my east, after sliding just to my north by a fraction of a mile. Not a drop here, however the dew point dropped considerably after it passed.

Yeah, that was the 2nd most interesting thing about those storms for me yesterday. Didn't take long to recover overnight, though.

There was a lot of cloud-to-air lightning with the cells near the city yesterday afternoon and 1 "bolt from the blue" here in BK. Haven't seen that in awhile.

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8 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Yeah, that was the 2nd most interesting thing about those storms for me yesterday. Didn't take long to recover overnight, though.

There was a lot of cloud-to-air lightning with the cells near the city yesterday afternoon and 1 "bolt from the blue" here in BK. Haven't seen that in awhile.

Yeah I was outside when that happened I was like wtf

4652C9D4-700A-4F87-9884-C9317CF58964.png

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One of the nice things about the SPC soundings is that they show the max mid-level lapse rates, which may not always correspond to the standard 700-500mb levels. Both IAD and OKX sampled lapse rates above 7C/km this morning. In fact, they're steep from ~950 up to ~600mb. The warmer temps at 500mb are what's keeping 700-500 rates much lower.

Despite the fcst modest shear, this is a decent signal for some strong winds this afternoon:

OKX_081919_12Z.thumb.png.d822e1b77fd302312d657a7dc4bb67c8.png

Convection should pop pretty quickly near and just west of the city by 2-3 this afternoon. 

 

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1 hour ago, Cfa said:

Blew up literally a mile or so to my east, after sliding just to my north by a fraction of a mile. Not a drop here, however the dew point dropped considerably after it passed.

Yeah, several hours of lower dewpoints with the wind shift and storms before rebounding back to 75+.

D97E13B4-7C65-4142-B37F-05AD04558C90.png.e816c60e3a684e1a70ef58010398ed59.png

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, several hours of lower dewpoints with the wind shift and storms before rebounding back to 75+.

A lot of guidance showing the same thing this evening, except dew points may not recover until tomorrow night. Might not see JFK make it to a Td of 75 tomorrow, but it's looking more likely that Thursday stays humid w/ the slower advance of cooler/drier air.

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57 minutes ago, saberonyx said:

I went down to the Wantagh Marina and it's all low soup clouds with a peek of what's up there. 

videotogif_2019.08.19_10.26.14.gif

Awesome shot, that’s right down the block from my house. 

Finally had a decent amount of rain last night at home and a full on monsoon at work on the uws. Couldn’t have come at better time as I was heading into emergency watering.

looking forward to a good lighting show this evening 

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