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Dr. Dews

August 2019 Discussion

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27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea you’re better off letting nature do it’s thing then. Don’t worry, plenty of 34F rain coming this winter. Hang in there....

Western New England storms will rise again. It's coming. 

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23 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Sniff, Sniff, Did you throw yourself down on the floor banging your head continuously and kicking your feet in a rage?

Why the harsh post? Cannabis should make you mellow.

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11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

.77 total.... pretty meh considering the modeled totals coming out over the last few days 

I missed your total by 2 cents, Dam

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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Why the harsh post? Cannabis should make you mellow.

No, It’s CBD derived from the hemp plant, Not a harsh post at all, Just thought you were acting childish because it looked like you were going to miss out.

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16 minutes ago, dryslot said:

No, It’s CBD derived from the hemp plant, Not a harsh post at all, Just thought you were acting childish because it looked like you were going to miss out.

Weather can be emotional. I am happy to admit it. 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Weather can be emotional. I am happy to admit it. 

Looks like some stole your rain, I would gladly give you mine if i could, But when it comes to snow, Your on your own................;)

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36 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s going to be a very emotional cold season. 

Expect wild swings like the pattern incoming.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Looks like some stole your rain, I would gladly give you mine if i could, But when it comes to snow, Your on your own................;)

Yep, we all try to steal. 

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Once i made an adjustment on the tipper sensor on the weather station, I have been either spot on or up to a 0.02" difference consistently doing a comparison, This storm it was a 0.01" difference between my stratus gauge and the tipper on my weather station and that could just be the difference in the falling rates.

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33 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

These PRE events are another one of the Fraud Five. They never produce as advertised in the 4 years or so I've been a board member. 

What’s as advertised?  Anyone truly think the NAM runs of 4-6” of rain was going to occur over that large of an area?  

The HRRR and high res models showed how narrow it was likely going... stripes of 2”+ about the width of a town mixed in with lesser amounts.  

Green is 1-2” and dark green is 2-4.5”.  

It’s not like it didn’t rain.  At least from the 50,000ft View.

87F1C192-4B21-4E09-BDED-01C8871E7D0E.thumb.jpeg.fd76ab1fc5cbec5dd746c71b3033d9f0.jpeg

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36 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

These PRE events are another one of the Fraud Five. They never produce as advertised in the 4 years or so I've been a board member. 

I feel like it should be termed the Fraud Fifty. There's a lot of stuff that can go on that list. 

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16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What’s as advertised?  Anyone truly think the NAM runs of 4-6” of rain was going to occur over that large of an area?  

The HRRR and high res models showed how narrow it was likely going... stripes of 2”+ about the width of a town mixed in with lesser amounts.  

Green is 1-2” and dark green is 2-4.5”.  

It’s not like it didn’t rain.  At least from the 50,000ft View.

87F1C192-4B21-4E09-BDED-01C8871E7D0E.thumb.jpeg.fd76ab1fc5cbec5dd746c71b3033d9f0.jpeg

Yeah, It was suppose to be a narrow ribbon, Made that comment a day or so back that there would be haves and have nots, Just the nature of the beast and it looked to favor eastern areas with an enhancement in precip with the interaction with the fropa moving thru the region.

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57 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

These PRE events are another one of the Fraud Five. They never produce as advertised in the 4 years or so I've been a board member. 

PRE events overall are modeled well. They have synoptic features that are usually features that guidance models well (LLJ, jet streaks, shortwaves etc). This was not a classic PRE. In fact you could argue either way. It did have PRE characteristics which include an appraoching s/w, strong jet stream venting aloft, and a surge in moisture getting squeezed out ahead of the storm. But, this had a combo of both mesoscale and synoptic features that were difficult to model. I think many of us including myself said this numerous times. The uber amounts didn't pan out as I think we didn't get the true tropical plume north into SNE...perhaps from convection to the south robbing a bit...although the setup would produce many other times. 

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Euro looked to handle it pretty well as it kept the heaviest precip offshore and had most areas between 1-2".

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We need winter, fast. Micro analyzing an Aug rain event is driving me up a barb wired flag pole, naked. 

Don't worry, micro analyzing a flurry event can drive you up that bard wired flag pole, just not naked since it will be cold. Or maybe you'd still want to be naked.

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