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Big New England heat 7/19-21


weathafella
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17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Like 80% of our temp increases have been from minimum temps and not maximums. We see it in the record temps too...we still set record low maxes fairly regularly, but its much harder to set record low mins.

Dews. We can't bottom out to set record low mins and we can't heat up enough to break record maxes regularly. If we keep tickling up with the GW I'd presume the record maxes become more common and we start losing the low max ability. Record low mins take a miracle nowadays though...especially for the climo sites with a period of record going back to the mid to late 1800s.

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Dews. We can't bottom out to set record low mins and we can't heat up enough to break record maxes regularly. If we keep tickling up with the GW I'd presume the record maxes become more common and we start losing the low max ability. Record low mins take a miracle nowadays though...especially for the climo sites with a period of record going back to the mid to late 1800s.

So its water vapor increase that's driving climate change. Interesting 

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Dews. We can't bottom out to set record low mins and we can't heat up enough to break record maxes regularly. If we keep tickling up with the GW I'd presume the record maxes become more common and we start losing the low max ability. Record low mins take a miracle nowadays though...especially for the climo sites with a period of record going back to the mid to late 1800s.

Sad

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Bastardi and D'Aleo trying hard to come up with tweets to counter GW. It's cute to see.

I don't tweet ?  ... I don't access other's tweets for that matter...  So, taken with a grain' .. I'm not privy to what exactly either has said in that media - though I doubt I'd run out and listen to Bastardi in any medium. 

Having said that, D'Aleo was touting a cooling/offset solar mantra some 15 years ago when I met him at the Southern New England Storm conference.. Jesus, 2005?  Man, that really was almost 15 years ago, huh.  I'm never ceased to be amazed when I think of time spans like that ..how a kid born in 2005 is almost ready to start college brochures... Yet to me, that's 5 minutes ago... not 15 f'kum years.  

Anyway, his schtick at the time was heavy into the Maunder-min esque of the era incoming.  He was hammering the 2020s though..  Which is afoot...but, as we know, it has to do with the temporal super-position of the three distinct solar curves.  blah blah the 11, 22, and 300 year... They are coming in resonance apparently ... so, I guess the hypothetical thinking there is that must mean there is an extra-double top secret re-enforcement of the negative forcing... making it super negative... thus, super effectively driving the climate system. Which we know it somehow does just by middle earth climate scrolls and shit.  

That's more than less what I gathered from having had this discussion with him.  I haven't kept up with it since.  However, I really just see it as competing forcing... I'm not sure that means it wins, or GW wins, either way.  But, I am less inclined to think that means we get a free-pass, and those two merely offset ...leaving us homogenized in some temperate bliss, either.  I think it means chaos more than anything else... 

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28 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Actually I read a book on the medieval warm period and it was a 4 century warm fest.  

One issue today is there is so much real time data that everything is magnified.  With that said, scientific consensus can’t be ignored.  Moreover, a sea level rise making millions’ homes uninhabitable is a humanitarian crisis regardless of etiology.

Hype, I believe the climate is changing but for 20 years I have heard about huge sea level change being the biggest issue, I think thats hype. places built on swamps aside , um Miami. 

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12z NAM is even hotter.. Jesus..

33 C at T1 at Logan with a west wind and mean RH < 60 % in the cloud sigmas is... like, 100 2MT period...   And, it's even hotter Sunday ...as Brian had alluded to ...owing most likely to the fact that there is a frontal drape approaching the region from the ST L. and that ought to help mix things up a bit with more gradient.   34 C at T1 with open sky west wind Sunday before any help from convection that evening is implying 102 in the 2-meter given those gridded parameters. 

Oh, I'm sure the MOS will have it's own interpretation - I'm an old schooler with the FOUS data though.  I still prefer to hit that tool and compare... 

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hype, I believe the climate is changing but for 20 years I have heard about huge sea level change being the biggest issue, I think thats hype. places built on swamps aside , um Miami. 

Of course it’s hyped

if people don’t understand hype and crisis fast track action then they don’t understand human nature or politics 

The sea level is gonna rise a meter in next xyz years lol I bet it is, and if it doesn’t we “were lucky” and not bullshitted to fast track plans that more than likely were trying to create some fund (to “save the environment” ) that can be looted by officials . This basic alarm emotion response pattern is played out for all of time .

i do believe there is current warming and I don’t beleive it’s a crisis. 

Lets erase all these garbage posts 

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greenhouse chemistry rises ... that allows a greater thermal residence --> more evaporation of water...  --> among others ... a run away effect, because vapor is 4 and half times more efficient with storing thermal energy than just Terrain air, alone.  

That's the change leading to the chain of events.   Theoretically anyway ... 

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Well you need heat to melt snow, glaciers, and ice caps. The warming waters and increasing GHGs allow for more evaporation and moisture to be trapped in the troposphere. But we've been wetter too so we precipitate a lot of it out. I haven't followed global humidity and precipitation trends enough though....at least not since I was in school. I'm sure Will and others can comment more on that. It is what it is. We're warming, but the extremists usually need to be ignored. The answer is usually somewhere in the middle.

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Sun is the thermal source in the oceanic/land/atmospheric coupled thermal engine... 

We don't precipitate out surplus rains in the "global atmospheric integral" and return to "normal" ?  If that's what we're implying here.  Doesn't work that way... We only restore at small scales before the vagaries of wind and weather bring in the next dose...and so on. But we are restoring to an elevated(ing) base-line.

While the energy contribution from the sun is not an absolute constant, it is a quasi-constant and is perpetual so. The only variance ( meaningful ) is angular/seasonal, but since the GW phenomenon straddles the equator evenly, that cancels out numerically as an offset ... In other words, we are not going to cool down the NH and squeeze out surplus WV if 6 months later we are re-adding more direct total irradiance.

So long as there is a thermal source adding the same amount of radiation to a trapping environment, the 'trapping' effect becomes the only mitigating factor.  If we alter that trap, we alter the amount trapped. Everything else is Trumptitude 

So raining out doesn't mean anything if we are still evaporation at the other end... We can rain and rain all we want... doesn't change a dern thing. It just means more rain... well, gee - any stats for that? 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sun is the thermal source in the oceanic/land/atmospheric coupled thermal engine... 

We don't precipitate out surplus rains in the "global atmospheric integral" and return to "normal" ?  If that's what we're implying here.  Doesn't work that way... We only restore at small scales before the vagaries of wind and weather bring in the next dose...and so on. But we are restoring to an elevated(ing) base-line.

While the energy contribution from the sun is not an absolute constant, it is a quasi-constant and is perpetual so. The only variance ( meaningful ) is angular/seasonal, but since the GW phenomenon straddles the equator evenly, that cancels out numerically as an offset ... In other words, we are not going to cool down the NH and squeeze out surplus WV if 6 months later we are re-adding more direct total irradiance.

So long as there is a thermal source adding the same amount of radiation to a trapping environment, the 'trapping' effect becomes the only mitigating factor.  If we alter that trap, we alter the amount trapped. Everything else is Trumptitude 

So raining out doesn't mean anything if we are still evaporation at the other end... We can rain and rain all we want... doesn't change dern thing.

Sure. I'm just saying with more moisture and higher pwats we're seeing more precipitation. I'm not implying at all that the precip is balancing out any moisture/evaporation increases. Not sure if you were responding to me though. I'm on the GW train.

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18 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

i do believe there is current warming and I don’t beleive it’s a crisis. 

Lets erase all these garbage posts 

That is the ticket and it depends on what each person views as a crisis... many are thinking about generations down the line, not like next year everyone is dead.  

Same for the immigration discussion in this country... it’s an existential threat that has a high likelyhood of never affecting most people.  It’s not unlike climate change in that yes most think it’s happening and it depends on how much you think it’s a crisis or care.  But personally it likely won’t affect most people.  

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Anyway, MET numbers are coming down, but dews are going up. I think the same thing happened in that first heat wave last July. 100/70 progs became 97/76. Whatever though. Would you rather be shot in the head or stabbed in the heart?

Where do you see H.I’s getting near 110

or is that very uniform 

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28 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Of course it’s hyped

if people don’t understand hype and crisis fast track action then they don’t understand human nature or politics 

The sea level is gonna rise a meter in next xyz years lol I bet it is, and if it doesn’t we “were lucky” and not bullshitted to fast track plans that more than likely were trying to create some fund (to “save the environment” ) that can be looted by officials . This basic alarm emotion response pattern is played out for all of time .

i do believe there is current warming and I don’t beleive it’s a crisis. 

Lets erase all these garbage posts 

It's not a crisis to you living in your cumfy home in Andover. But to people living in more vulnerable communities, to wildlife, to the oceans, coral reefs, etc, it is a crisis. 

It's like saying you dont think AIDS is a crisis because you dont have AIDS.

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2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

It's not a crisis to you living in your cumfy home in Andover. But to people living in more vulnerable communities, to wildlife, to the oceans, coral reefs, etc, it is a crisis. 

It's like saying you dont think AIDS is a crisis because you dont have AIDS.

He may. He sleeps with a lot of dilfs

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22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Anyway, MET numbers are coming down, but dews are going up. I think the same thing happened in that first heat wave last July. 100/70 progs became 97/76. Whatever though. Would you rather be shot in the head or stabbed in the heart?

I'll take neither and head to the beach

#stayinalive

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I just happen to see this on my news feed.   Last month was hottest June on record for the planet...

June 2019. The average global temperature in June was 1.71 degrees F above the 20th-century average of 59.9 degrees, making it the hottest June in the 140-year record, according to scientists to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. Nine of the 10 hottest Junes have occurred since 2010.

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