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OKStorm

MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

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Just now, cheese007 said:

Is that two tornadoes or just a stupid large multi-vortex?

Right - it is two tornadoes but formed out of the same cell. One circulation

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Mesoscale Discussion 0705
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0346 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

   Areas affected...southwest and central OK

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 199...

   Valid 202046Z - 202145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 199 continues.

   SUMMARY...Tornado potential will likely increase across southwest OK
   during the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows several quasi-discrete supercells
   over the eastern TX Panhandle into the Low Rolling Plains. 
   Additional storm development is possible over southwest OK ahead of
   the supercells located to the west.  It is less clear regarding
   convective initiation and supercell development farther east towards
   the I-44/I-35 corridors (besides the Logan County supercell).

   Surface analysis shows lower 70s surface dewpoints with temperatures
   ranging from the lower 80s over southwest OK to the middle 70s near
   OKC.  A composite front/outflow-reinforced boundary is located
   across the eastern TX Panhandle arcing to the east-northeast to near
   Stillwater, OK.  South of this boundary, a very unstable to
   extremely unstable airmass will support intense updraft development
   with existing storms.  KTLX VAD data shows a larger hodograph
   compared to KFDR's VAD (0-1km SRH of 300 and 200 m2/s2,
   respectively).

   Short-term model guidance has trended away from a possible scenario
   of discrete storm development over south-central OK.  The most
   probable scenario involves several tornadic supercells likely moving
   across southwest OK and approaching the I-40 corridor west of the
   OKC metro.

   ..Smith.. 05/20/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

mcd0705.gif

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Confirmed tornado outside of Childress, TX

Quote

At 334 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 7 miles southwest of
Kirkland, or 10 miles southeast of Childress,

 

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2 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Confirmed tornado outside of Childress, TX

 

At 350 the TOG is near Kirkland and moving NE at 40mph

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Just now, kvegas-wx said:

Nick Busby is teed up nicely on the Childress storm at Livestormchasing.com.

That one looks like it is still producing two separate areas of rotation

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Lubbock and Crosby counties in TX warned for 80mph winds and quarter size hail... Texas Tech and city of Lubbock also included in warning locations

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Insane mesocyclone feeding these multiple tornadoes. Chasers nightmare I bet with all these separate circulations dropping down.

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2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

That one looks like it is still producing two separate areas of rotation

Good call... new tornado warning mentions exactly that

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
359 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

The National Weather Service in Lubbock Texas has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Eastern Childress County in the Panhandle of Texas...

* Until 430 PM CDT.

* At 358 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 6 miles southwest of Kirkland, or 7 miles southeast of
  Childress, moving northeast at 30 mph.  A second circulation was
  located near the Red River approaching the eastern Childress
  county line.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Childress and Kirkland.

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Crescent cell is gonna be choked by WF soon. 

Childress cell has potential but is struggling and is continuing to struggle producing. 

KFDR’s VAD is not great with 0-1 km being kinda meh. Lapse rates may also be preventing development in open warm sector. Wellington cell has improved the past few scans so we’ll see with that. Unless we’re discrete later on when dynamics improve some, I don’t see 45 verifying 

Edit:Watch out if a storm is able to go up and sustain itself in open warm sector 

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These guys are nuts.  Driving on dirt side roads that are already wet under heavy rain bands.  If there is something real coming out of that Childress storm there's going to be a lot of folks stuck in the mud. 

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
359 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

TXC087-202115-
/O.CON.KAMA.TO.W.0037.000000T0000Z-190520T2115Z/
Collingsworth TX-
359 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY...

At 359 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 9 miles east of Lutie, or 13 miles northeast of
Wellington, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters reported a rotating wall cloud.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Lutie.

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2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Crescent cell is gonna be choked by WF soon. 

Childress cell has potential but is struggling and is continuing to struggle producing. 

KFDR’s VAD is not great with 0-1 km being kinda meh. Lapse rates may also be preventing development in open warm sector. Wellington cell has improved the past few scans so we’ll see with that. Unless we’re discrete later on when dynamics improve some, I don’t see 45 verifying 

Yeah, definitely doesn't look like it is going to verify at this point. We shall see what the next few hours bring.

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My theory as to why nothing is happening on the warm front: Temperatures are just way too cold to the north, in the upper 40s to near 50. Storm motions are too perpendicular and nothing can sustain itself for long once it crosses the boundary. 

Meanwhile, storms in the open warm sector are struggling and the volatile tornado environment there isn't being realized. Cumulus field is all but gone across this area so I don't see surface based convection developing here. 

Basically the only remaining area for major tornado threat I see is gonna be the storms entering SW Oklahoma. LLJ is weaker here than further east but will strengthen some over the next couple hours. But how long will they stay discrete is the question here. 

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I copied it from the mesonet at the right time. Must have been a glitch somewhere. My fault

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That complex S of Lubbock could become a contender as it moves NE.  After exploding into a mess awhile ago it slowly looks to be organizing into a line of sup's.  It's right along the dry line and doesn't look as of now if anything is going to pop out ahead to disrupt.  

 

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14 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

I think something was wrong with your image, Here is the latest temps.

current.TAIR.grad.png

Wow. A decent chunk of the 45% tor has temps under 60...

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