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OKStorm

MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

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Used to be that a high risk for tornadoes was issued when at least 20 were expected to occur in an area roughly the size of Oklahoma without the panhandle.  I assume that's still the case because I haven't been able to find anything to the contrary but does anyone know if it has changed?

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6 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

I feel bad for those guys. One of the most advertised outbreaks of the decade completely flops. Not saying today hasn’t been active but this certainly wasn’t historic

In their defense, I think pretty much everyone was taken off guard.

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6 minutes ago, MUWX said:

All based on one storm. Not sure I get it, but it doesn’t really matter at this point 

What I got overall from it is there is still a potentially volatile atmosphere in place and though we missed it to the negative early there's no reason to downplay potential.  The powder is still in the keg.  Whether a spark gets to it remains to be seen.  Merso analysis is getting a bit concerning in the watch areas into Arkansas.  Night time outbreaks are few and far between but not to be messed with as that's when folks are the most vulnerable even in the techno cocoon we live in now.

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2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

What I got overall from it is there is still a potentially volatile atmosphere in place and though we missed it to the negative early there's no reason to downplay potential.  The powder is still in the keg.  Whether a spark gets to it remains to be seen.  Merso analysis is getting a bit concerning in the watch areas into Arkansas.  Night time outbreaks are few and far between but not to be messed with as that's when folks are the most vulnerable even in the techno cocoon we live in now.

Oh come on. The ‘powder keg’ was one storm that was tornado warned at 8, and is now no longer tornado warned. 

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1 minute ago, Jackstraw said:

What I got overall from it is there is still a potentially volatile atmosphere in place and though we missed it to the negative early there's no reason to downplay potential.  The powder is still in the keg.  Whether a spark gets to it remains to be seen.  Merso analysis is getting a bit concerning in the watch areas into Arkansas.  Night time outbreaks are few and far between but not to be messed with as that's when folks are the most vulnerable even in the techno cocoon we live in now.

Good post and agreed. This is just too volatile of a situation to just dismiss. Even if things haven’t panned out and despite the not very impressive radar trends. This indeed may not pan out much more than what has transpired, but given the environment in place it would be foolish to totally dismiss this.

large-scale forcing is slowly increasing and LLJ counties to bump up. Just have to see if that provides the boost 

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tx

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
843 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN WESTERN TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 915 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 842 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE COLORADO  
  CITY, OR NEAR COLORADO CITY, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

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1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said:

Tulsa storm showing some signs of a hook...

Been watching that one, inflow is seriously impeded by junk to the south luckily. 

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Just now, the ghost of leroy said:

Lots of trailer parks in eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas still under the gun. :ph34r:

 :rolleyes: some dude already said about 50x's in this thread that it was a bust  :P 

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on the SPC site, just saw the 00Z soundings at OUN and FWD, and those look a lot more promising now for all modes of severe weather with a bit of a more stereotypical severe weather lid forming aloft. add to that the height falls now coming in from NM with an approaching upper low on the mid-level WV satellite (channel 9), and now we're going to get to business for eastern OK and beyond, imho. the high risk may end up verifying yet, or at least has a better chance now. just a more dangerous setting in the night.

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6 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Oh come on. The ‘powder keg’ was one storm that was tornado warned at 8, and is now no longer tornado warned. 

Even with the latest 1 day outlook downgrade the storms have still not entered the area the SPC thinks is the most volatile, at night no less (I can't stress a nocturnal threat enough).  Sorry but professionals don't make decisions on one storm.

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1 minute ago, Jackstraw said:

Even with the latest 1 day outlook downgrade the storms have still not entered the area the SPC thinks is the most volatile, at night no less (I can't stress a nocturnal threat enough).  Sorry but professionals don't make decisions on one storm.

The current high risk is based off of one storm. The large moderate risk, is obviously not. 

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24 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

Tulsa storm showing some signs of a hook...

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
906 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...  
  NORTHEASTERN CREEK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...  
  NORTHWESTERN TULSA COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...  
  
* UNTIL 930 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 906 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANNFORD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40  
  MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...  
  TULSA...                          SAND SPRINGS...  
  SKIATOOK...                       MANNFORD...  
  KEYSTONE STATE PARK...          

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By the way, thought the Wichita Falls storm summarized today perfectly in the north. It was HP, but had good inflow and looked like it might do something big given the environment that was in place.

I don’t even think it took ten minutes after the high risk was maintained for that region (for that storm specifically) that it went outflow dominant! Lol 

Just one of those days. Don’t think you’ll ever see a 45% risk area perform like this again.

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#fakesupercells

#busttruth

#maketornadoesgreatagain

 

0378AF5F-7EDE-494C-98F2-D32605EBBCED.thumb.png.575fb5550db02a6ffdec4049c2fc0b10.png

5 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

Holy hell. The Tulsa storm is looking very ominous at the moment. Not a strong couplet yet, but it’s got a chance to do something. 

8A0E5999-E717-44FA-9821-72064DED8F7B.png

 

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57 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Used to be that a high risk for tornadoes was issued when at least 20 were expected to occur in an area roughly the size of Oklahoma without the panhandle.  I assume that's still the case because I haven't been able to find anything to the contrary but does anyone know if it has changed?

 

Screenshot_20190520-222649.png

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Weather.com has some info regarding the history of the high-risk from the SPC

 

A Solid Track Record

We examined each of the 60 high risk outlooks from 2000 through May 2017 to determine how many of those forecasts rang true to the dire nature of the outlooks.

There are various shades of gray in assessing the accuracy of these forecasts, somewhat analogous to grading the drafts of professional sports teams years after the fact.

Three-quarters (45) of the high-risk forecasts were solid.

 

These not only included obvious cases, like the late-April 2011 Superoutbreak, but also some tougher, more out-of-season forecasts, such as the November 2013 Midwest outbreak and the February 2008 Super Tuesday outbreak.

Only seven of these high-risk forecasts could be clearly categorized as busts, primarily from a lack of tornadoes in the high-risk zone. 

As SPC forecasters explained in a discussion regarding the May 18, 2017 high risk, a number of factors, such as too many competing severe thunderstorms interfering with each other, can lead to a busted high risk.

The most recent example of this was on April 27, 2014, when a small part of Arkansas was highlighted in the afternoon, but relatively few tornadoes occurred in that zone.

 

Another eight cases weren't clearly either a hit or bust.

One example was April 5, 2017 in the Southeast. The high risk issued around midday certainly seemed to capture a long-track supercell spawning tornadoes in the southern half of Georgia. However, one could argue the density of reports of severe weather was higher in areas surrounding the high risk. 

That case points out that while a high-risk area is typically denoted as "particularly dangerous" in the lexicon of meteorologists, you should still take a moderate, enhanced or even a slight risk of severe thunderstorms seriously.

 

 

Rest is here

 

https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/high-risk-spc-outlooks-verified

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Just wanted to say: I think all of us can acknowledge this “busted” for a 45% tornado risk day. However, the potential was there, and I don’t think many could begrudge the SPC for issuing it given what everything looked like pre-initiation.

 

Days like today really make you appreciate just how unique the major outbreak days are! The subtlest thing being off can put the lid on what otherwise could have been a ridiculous outbreak of violent tornadoes. 

i just don’t understand why many have the urge to call everything a bust as soon as possible though. It’s not productive. If you want to critique, that’s fine. I’m here for all of your expertise and want to see actual technical discussion of that. However, you’re not contributing to a discussion of the event by calling “bust” every 15 minutes.

Every set-up, no matter how high-end, plays out differently, and it was absurd to be calling it one of the “worst busts ever” as we had four tornado warned discrete cells going on in the southern part of the risk area. We’ve seen several set-ups look like crap, then do something big later in the afternoon/evening. We may even end up with a 30% contour verifying after storm surveys somewhere in the Red River valley. It wasn’t what we expected, but it wasn’t a complete cap bust with no tornado reports either. 

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