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Dr. Dews

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

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number one to many are going with out to sea which i dont support and jb doesnt either.  The one behind it will be big has lot of water to get strong already big that far out .

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Canes like Islands 2 fer Bermuda 

EPS  and GEFS still have members making a sharp turn and bringing it close to SNE.  also some EPS members ots or in the Gulf.. all are still at play until models latch onto a center  and strength.. still think we wait until Sunday to know for sure..

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30 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

EPS  and GEFS still have members making a sharp turn and bringing it close to SNE.  also some EPS members ots or in the Gulf.. all are still at play until models latch onto a center  and strength.. still think we wait until Sunday to know for sure..

Doesn't matter where the center is with the hemispheric setup for us

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There is nothing about the presently modeled circulation medium over our quadrature of the hemisphere that would physically allow that system to affect this region.  

Nothing... 

We can wait until Sunday - that is fine... as in this field, much to our chagrin there can be those rare time when the pattern morphs completely as an emergent, non-predictable circumstance, toward a more interesting x-y-z scenario.  Hell for that matter, no probability is truly zero in the perceivable Universe. 

There is no detectable trend to suggest any such morphology is taking place though.  In fact, the opposite.  In fact, it was espoused that would happen ( more likely...)  

JB?   ...of course he Trumps an impact scenario as plausible - he's a sell-out Meteorological hooker and despite his borderline buffoonery being repeatedly exposed, people keep posting 'JB says' followed by pieces of verbal shit ...

 

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1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

EPS  and GEFS still have members making a sharp turn and bringing it close to SNE.  also some EPS members ots or in the Gulf.. all are still at play until models latch onto a center  and strength.. still think we wait until Sunday to know for sure..

it's over

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Model trends sure are not getting me excited for any tropical action up here. 

On a side note, what is going on with the death toll in the Bahamas?  Official death toll at 50 for many days.  I'm sure they have gotten some heavy equipment into that  storm surge area of Great Abaco with all those shanties.  From what people were saying on the ground the smell of death is everywhere in the air but nobodies?  Maybe because it was a poor area with a  Haitian population these people somehow don't count.  Just seems like such a disconnect. 1500 missing but the death toll never rises not even by 1 or 2 people. There must be some political reason to keep it low?  

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6 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Should see different  solutions until models initialize  correctly.. recon found the center east.. but as of now looks like it's for the fishes or Bermuda.  

I believe the second Atlantic Hurricane on the models is a threat but maybe heads out to sea as well.

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I believe the second Atlantic Hurricane on the models is a threat but maybe heads out to sea as well.

I still think this one got a chance.. if this slows down or loops I think it can go up the coast after that.. giving it until Sunday atleast.. 

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1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

I still think this one got a chance.. if this slows down or loops I think it can go up the coast after that.. giving it until Sunday atleast.. 

If the trough wasn't still positive with that funky cut off piece over alabama maybe this could sling it up here.......still seems far enough out that its still possible no?  wouldn't take much?

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3 hours ago, ice1972 said:

If the trough wasn't still positive with that funky cut off piece over alabama maybe this could sling it up here.......still seems far enough out that its still possible no?  wouldn't take much?

Oh no ...not Bama again....???? Lol. 

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11 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

I still think this one got a chance.. if this slows down or loops I think it can go up the coast after that.. giving it until Sunday atleast.. 

Give it up 

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12 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

I still think this one got a chance.. if this slows down or loops I think it can go up the coast after that.. giving it until Sunday atleast.. 

Agree. Just need it to stall for a week, do a figure 8, and then get picked up ahead of an October trough.

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29 minutes ago, dryslot said:

So now i have sour milk and moldy bread, Dam.

Lol...yup the hype and drama of that one Euro run, when there might not have been enough time to get your sour milk and moldy bread.  

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2 hours ago, rimetree said:

Doldrums. Would be nice to at least get a good, early season nor'easter in here to break the routine. 

Agree!!  Something like you said to break up the monotony of this boring time of year known as September...

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Agree!!  Something like you said to break up the monotony of the this boring time of year known as September...

Saving it for winter when it counts.

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It's a seldom wins month, September, for those that engage in this past time solely for the entertainment/dopamine "joy" spike factor.  Having to depend almost entirely upon tropics to get those "highs" in this geographic predicament ?  ... ancillary hobbies folks.  

 

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Don’t worry, We all have hobbies Tip...quite a few fun ones actually.

Nobody here is clinically depressed due to benign/quiet weather.  Some of us are Just throwing it out there, that it’s fun to track and converse about exciting weather that could/looks to impact our backyards.  For the most part, most of us are on this site for the excitement of active weather developing, moving towards and impacting our areas. It’s as plain and simple as that. 

It doesn’t mean we don’t have other things to keep us busy one bit, it just means we enjoy the active times of weather, along with everything else in our lives. 

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57 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Don’t worry, We all have hobbies Tip...quite a few fun ones actually.

Nobody here is clinically depressed due to benign/quiet weather.  Some of us are Just throwing it out there, that it’s fun to track and converse about exciting weather that could/looks to impact our backyards.  For the most part, most of us are on this site for the excitement of active weather developing, moving towards and impacting our areas. It’s as plain and simple as that. 

It doesn’t mean we don’t have other things to keep us busy one bit, it just means we enjoy the active times of weather, along with everything else in our lives. 

I am .. this blows!

It's only made worse reading other's holding out optimism for lost cause - ...oh, no one means it, but it rubs it in.. hahaha

J/k...  Yeah, I know... either way, time goes so fast for me - anyways - these days that it'll be next July while I'm waitin' on this winter -

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1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

EPS with alot of members looping now

Not impossible ?  But I'd still put that as the remoter of possibilities..   I mentioned that myself yesterday or the day before, that it's possible the models are digging the 'capturing' trough to prodigiously... Shallowing that out gives Humberto a tug...instantiating and N then NNE/NE motion only to have it then slow down as said trough skirts away and heights tend to build back in around and moat it off.. .

That could mean a south displacement as a drift if/when something like that were to occur, because these cyclones are like water in the sense that they always move with the flow/path of lowest resistance which would be south in such a scenario ...etc.   After that...  heh, getting it then turn back west and then back N ...thus completing a loop, would require the next trough it the series being well behaved ... and well, long before we got to that sort of reality we have to have all these other things go right first...and it's delicate.  It's really pretty remarkable getting that to happen at all ...let alone guidance correctly depicting it -

I'm just talking about the loop as a behavior mind you... that's all.

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not impossible ?  But I'd still put that as the remoter of possibilities..   I mentioned that myself yesterday or the day before, that it's possible the models are digging the 'capturing' trough to prodigiously... Shallowing that out gives Humberto a tug...instantiating and N then NNE/NE motion only to have it then slow down as said trough skirts away and heights tend to build back in around and moat it off.. .

That could mean a south displacement as a drift if/when something like that were to occur, because these cyclones are like water in the sense that they always move with the flow/path of lowest resistance which would be south in such a scenario ...etc.   After that...  heh, getting it then turn back west and then back N ...thus completing a loop, would require the next trough it the series being well behaved ... and well, long before we got to that sort of reality we have to have all these other things go right first...and it's delicate.  It's really pretty remarkable getting that to happen at all ...let alone guidance correctly depicting it -

I'm just talking about the loop as a behavior mind you... that's all.

So kind of what the 18z NAVGEM shows?

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