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Dr. Dews

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Looks like a Cat 5, possibly the fifth time President Trump has heard of one for the 1st time: 

531BB56D-4926-4D1F-8DBC-D17AFE9A577A.jpeg.2bcd4f82c8ab1bc6f16d5c417df4ae1d.jpeg

"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt."

Trump should try doing a lot more of the remaining silent thing.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Looks like a Cat 5, possibly the fifth time President Trump has heard of one for the 1st time: 

531BB56D-4926-4D1F-8DBC-D17AFE9A577A.jpeg.2bcd4f82c8ab1bc6f16d5c417df4ae1d.jpeg

The Chosen One...……...lol

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29 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Is that Cobble Hill in Brooklyn?  My sister lived there for many years at 341 Clinton (?) Ave.  No idea why I can remember that address!

 

29 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Is that Cobble Hill in Brooklyn?  My sister lived there for many years at 341 Clinton (?) Ave.  No idea why I can remember that address!

Your sister was right around the corner from me. 341 Clinton Street. I’m on Tompkins Place which often gets mixed up with Tompkins Ave. Did your sister own the building. These 1860 to 1880 vintage homes are now selling in the multiple seven figure range. Mine was bought in 1954 for 13K.  One row house two doors down is on the market for 6.3 mil. Functional insanity.

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Just now, rclab said:

 

Your sister was right around the corner from me. 341 Clinton Street. I’m on Tompkins Place which often gets mixed up with Tompkins Ave. Did your sister own the building. These 1860 to 1880 vintage homes are now selling in the multiple seven figure range. Mine was bought in 1954 for 13K.  One row house two doors down is on the market for 6.3 mil. Functional insanity.

They were renting that one, IIRC.  But they bought a fixer-upper in Park Slope about 30-years ago.  I think they'll do okay when they sell/move in a couple years when they retire. $$$

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Just now, yoda said:

18z GFS gives SE Mass into Nantucket some fun at 126-132

Cape cod might be the place for be for this up here.

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Cape cod might be the place for be for this up here.

I would think anywhere east of the middle of Long Island ought to do it. It might be fun to hang out up in the Hither Hills area or on the cliffs by Montauk and watch the chaos.

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18z gfs...maybe ack would see 40-60 mph, but (as shown) a transitioning extratropical that makes landfall along the Carolinas won't have much wind on the NW side away from the coast. Just a boat load of rain.

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8 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

18z gfs...maybe ack would see 40-60 mph, but (as shown) a transitioning extratropical that makes landfall along the Carolinas won't have much wind on the NW side away from the coast. Just a boat load of rain.

Maybe we get that PRE after all.

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18 minutes ago, yoda said:

18z GFS gives SE Mass into Nantucket some fun at 126-132

What's really hilarious are the little run to run differences in the GFS track at 5-6 days out.  If this were January, this run would show a cutter after an OTS on the previous run, lol.  I know winter dynamics are different than early September dynamics, but still.

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3 hours ago, Yukon Cornelius said:

Those stadium effect pics posted by the AF recon planes are sick.  I can’t imagine purposely flying into that.  Getting anxiety just thinking about it - haha. 

Amazing what those pilots/planes can do. 

I’m not fond of flying but I’d drop everything to get on a recon flight. 

HH are incredible. Whether flying through a storm or collecting data around one, they save lives with their work.

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m not fond of flying but I’d drop everything to get on a recon flight. 

HH are incredible. Whether flying through a storm or collecting data around one, they save lives with their work.

Absolutely agree they play a role in saving lives.  I was just speaking in general with regard to flying into a Cat 5 hurricane.

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1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

They were renting that one, IIRC.  But they bought a fixer-upper in Park Slope about 30-years ago.  I think they'll do okay when they sell/move in a couple years when they retire. $$$

Park slope houses also generate multi seven figure prices. They will be more than fine if they choose to sell. As always ....

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9 minutes ago, Yukon Cornelius said:

Absolutely agree they play a role in saving lives.  I was just speaking in general with regard to flying into a Cat 5 hurricane.

Yep, I know. That turbulence would be insane.

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13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yep, I know. That turbulence would be insane.

Every 5 seconds I would be in panic mode thinking the plane was going down....while the rest of the crew are openly laughing at me!

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A hugger track is worst case scenario then a landfall over one area, Dorian could rake the whole east coast of FL.

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14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

A hugger track is worst case scenario then a landfall over one area, Dorian could rake the whole east coast of FL.

This thing had better not continue westward from Freeport or there will be a lot of panicking by not just the public, but also the NHC.  It's only 70 miles from Freeport to West Palm Beach.  The average track error is 70 miles in this time frame.

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3 hours ago, Hoth said:

Maybe we get that PRE after all.

We'll definitely need to see a more stout s/w so as to pump heights to the NE. Otherwise it'd confined to far SE areas, if at all.

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1 minute ago, Dr. Dews said:

We'll definitely need to see a more stout s/w so as to pump heights to the NE. Otherwise it'd confined to far SE areas, if at all.

Agreed. Gotta watch that and trough orientation, as Tippy mentioned earlier. Not expecting anything, but it's quite a spectacle regardless.

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12 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

This thing had better not continue westward from Freeport or there will be a lot of panicking by not just the public, but also the NHC.  It's only 70 miles from Freeport to West Palm Beach.  The average track error is 70 miles in this time frame.

Where it makes the turn is key, And were just talking several miles at this point that could make significant impacts,East coast still will have to deal with tropical storm winds inland and surge along the coast verbatim, It’s just a dire situation for Florida and hoping for the best as I have several friends in that area and are under the gun. 

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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Where it makes the turn is key, And were just talking several miles at this point that could make significant impacts,East coast still will have to deal with tropical storm winds inland and surge along the coast verbatim, It’s just a dire situation for Florida and hoping for the best as I have several friends in that area and are under the gun. 

Most models, including the hurricane models, show the turn already beginning by now, with the eye going N of Grand Bahama Island.  Only the Euro had the eye going across the island part way, but turning NW before getting to Freeport.  Then we have the modeled stall to consider around Freeport.  If that doesn't happen, then all bets are off.

I have relatives in Naples, so they look fairly safe there.

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