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Dr. Dews

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

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36 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

One GEFS member is on the JMA side

The operational run too in a strange twist. Minus the sea level pressure.

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31 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

The operational run too in a strange twist. Minus the sea level pressure.

Most likely  stays out..   fun for the fishes....  not going to lie though my weenie self is checking every run :)

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57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not gonna happen, James.

 

34 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

It's definitely gonna happen.

I side with the former.

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The 0z Euro depicts an U/L low pressure near 50/50 at 96hr. modulate that LP less deep in time- as well as a less-than-modeled s/w rounding the base of that deep trough in Southern CA, could be more interesting. Otherwise the flow is too flat and it's an easy recurve. Whether a system even gets going....

Haven't looked at anything 0z except the 0z euro op and gfs, and fwiw.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It's over Johhny....It's over.

Tasty waves, cool buzz and I feel fine

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Canadian came closer.. seems the slower models are west.  Also see a spin south of lake okeechobee.. models initialize on the east coast of Florida  or just offshore..

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Tropical depression 5 ...forecast to become a hurricane as it crosses NE Caribbean 

that is an example of the POLITICS of forecasting . Caribbean  Looks hostile l and would be lucky to make it thru as Tropical storm but IMO bc it’s close to islands Stewart is going with HRFW? And Cat 1. Good luck 

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3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Tropical depression 5 ...forecast to become a hurricane as it crosses NE Caribbean 

that is an example of the POLITICS of forecasting . Caribbean  Looks hostile l and would be lucky to make it thru as Tropical storm but IMO bc it’s close to islands Stewart is going with HRFW? And Cat 1. Good luck 

5pm   Hello Tropical Storm Dorian

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6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

5pm   Hello Tropical Storm Dorian

That’s wasnt ever a question, with a small system will probably make a cane east of Caribbean, don’t see it surviving Caribbean 

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98L is the East Coast threat we have been talking about.  It has a large surface circulation that remains broad and not well-defined quite yet.  However, convection is centralized and I believe 90L in the central Northern Gulf is organizing.

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15 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

98L is the East Coast threat we have been talking about.  It has a large surface circulation that remains broad and not well-defined quite yet.  However, convection is centralized and I believe 90L in the central Northern Gulf is organizing.

98L looks ots and weak.  90L is a pointless invest. 

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53 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

98L looks ots and weak.  90L is a pointless invest. 

Legacy gfs has dorian Into the gulf

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