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WxUSAF

March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs

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CWG lowered totals for all by an inch. Its honestly like reading two different conversations from this board vs them. They're trending to this being a complete non event unless you get pretty far north. They seem to be relying on the nams for their analysis 

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

CWG lowered totals for all by an inch. Its honestly like reading two different conversations from this board vs them. They're trending to this being a complete non event unless you get pretty far north. They seem to be relying on the nams for their analysis 

Or past experiences in March with the lack of cold air. 

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2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

CWG lowered totals for all by an inch. Its honestly like reading two different conversations from this board vs them. They're trending to this being a complete non event unless you get pretty far north. They seem to be relying on the nams for their analysis 

Where are you seeing their latest forecast? All I see is the one posted from 9:45 last night.

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5 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Or past experiences in March with the lack of cold air. 

They specifically showed the nam but yes combined with their knowledge of course. On here we just look at pretty snow maps and run with it.

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We look at climo and run with it. Baltimore city will have issues. White rain as they say. Anyone near and north of i 70 and far northern VA should fair well. Precip rates will be there to overcome marginal temps 

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Summary:

3-7 inches north and west, maybe 8 for the far north and west.

Close in to DC, maybe 1-3 inches.

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15 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

FB

Not too bad, sort of mirrors my thoughts though I would tweak it a little. Probably go with a little more of a SW to NE axis of snow fall. So move the western snowfall south a touch and the eastern northward a touch. Also think there will be a tighter gradient of the snowfall north of the 2-4 zone. So shift the 4-8 southward into most of Carroll and into northern Balt county. Think just north of that we will see 6-10 around the PA line. 

eta: Also wouldn't be surprised if NE MD does a little better then projected if the low is a little stronger off the coast.

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CWG is also mainly concerned with dc and it’s suburbs. I wouldn’t be overly thrilled in downtown dc or areas south either, so I understand the tone. I, on the other hand, live in between I 70 and 108, and have a much better “boom” chance, being NE of DC. I know my area and these marginal storms. As places like east Catonsville and Baltimore are seeing slop, reisterstown pikesville West EC and points N are seeing appreciable snow. 10 miles means everything here. QPF near Baltimore and it’s suburbs will also be higher than SW areas of the forum. 

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Not too bad, sort of mirrors my thoughts though I would tweak it a little. Probably go with a little more of a SW to NE axis of snow fall. So move the western snowfall south a touch and the eastern northward a touch. Also think there will be a tighter gradient of the snowfall north of the 2-4 zone. So shift the 4-8 southward into most of Carroll and into northern Balt county. Think just north of that we will see 6-10 around the PA line. 

Yeah I wasn't disagreeing with their forecast I'm on the books for 1-2" here in leesburg which I know Ji isn't happy with but this one just feels off to me. 2" gets me to 30" so I'm good...others obviously are expecting blockbusters every event. Our usual exercise of course 

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46 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

CWG lowered totals for all by an inch. Its honestly like reading two different conversations from this board vs them. They're trending to this being a complete non event unless you get pretty far north. They seem to be relying on the nams for their analysis 

Admittedly I don't have a whole lot of interest at this point, but I skimmed through the guidance this morning, and other than maybe the Euro, everything looked a bit warmer to me. Likely won't make much difference far N and W, but around I-95 it will. After the initial onset of precip, which will likely be rain, the best chances for places like DC to pick up an inch or 2 is clearly this evening, when rates pick up and some dynamic cooling occurs. Beyond that, warming aloft will be moving in from the SE, and with surface temps probably just above freezing, p-type will transition to more of a sleet/rain mix for I-95 and points SE.

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I checked my weather radio about an hour ago and I heard that Southeast Harford is now in the WSW sector with 3-6" possible.  Better than the 1-3" it had last night.  I guess the projected storm track was adjusted slightly more south overnight. 

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6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

my thinking for tomorrow... good luck to everyone.  Hopefully I bust too low everywhere. 

storm.png.d4f950e3c2ffd0494633084c57b3e977.png

Hope this works out!

 

33/25 here

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Yeah I wasn't disagreeing with their forecast I'm on the books for 1-2" here in leesburg which I know Ji isn't happy with but this one just feels off to me. 2" gets me to 30" so I'm good...others obviously are expecting blockbusters every event. Our usual exercise of course 
Leesburgwx is already at 30

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8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Just looked at the HRRR for the first time. Not too inspiring lol. Of course, it's the HRRR.

Wouldn't that be a kick in the ass for many of us if that were to verify. The problem is, is it is more aggressive with warming the surface and raising the dew points then other guidance. This in turn is creating a much deeper warm layer at the surface that is much more difficult to over come. You can see this if you compare the 3K NAM soundings. Guess it could be right but I highly doubt it, I just don't see that sort of response occurring with the flow it has on the surface. Don't follow the HRRR at all so I don't know what issues it does have. But taking a stab at it maybe it is overplaying IR in heating the ground? Underplaying the cloud cover and its effects on limiting the IR? I guess what I am saying is, is the HRRR the DEB of the model world and telling us we have no chances because of the infamous March sun angle? :D

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All the mesos have pretty much lost the idea of starting the cities as snow. They keep the cities south and east rain for almost the entire duration. Yesterday many of the mesos had the cities starting as snow for a few hrs. Temps are really warm as well. 40/26

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11 minutes ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:
Yeah I wasn't disagreeing with their forecast I'm on the books for 1-2" here in leesburg which I know Ji isn't happy with but this one just feels off to me. 2" gets me to 30" so I'm good...others obviously are expecting blockbusters every event. Our usual exercise of course 

Leesburgwx is already at 30

Yeah ok...you do realize hes a few miles nw of where you live which means you might not be at 30 yet either especially since you don't measure and just take the highest number recorded 

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Too bad that HP in the nw couldn't get further to the east especially with the trend to have the storm bomb off the coast pretty close to us. NWS has some snow in the overnight tonight when winds shift to the  nw.

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35/26  Traffic cams show flakes falling all along 68 to just east of Cumberland.

Current wet-bulbs 

Pejfz8u.gif

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34/21 with a light northerly breeze and a steady barometer.  Only a bit of snow cover survived the warmth yesterday/ overnight.

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12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Wouldn't that be a kick in the ass for many of us if that were to verify. The problem is, is it is more aggressive with warming the surface and raising the dew points then other guidance. This in turn is creating a much deeper warm layer at the surface that is much more difficult to over come. You can see this if you compare the 3K NAM soundings. Guess it could be right but I highly doubt it, I just don't see that sort of response occurring with the flow it has on the surface. Don't follow the HRRR at all so I don't know what issues it does have. But taking a stab at it maybe it is overplaying IR in heating the ground? Underplaying the cloud cover and its effects on limiting the IR? I guess what I am saying is, is the HRRR the DEB of the model world and telling us we have no chances because of the infamous March sun angle? :D

Ha maybe! I know very little about the physics of the HRRR. What I do know its it is prone to dramatic shifts over a few runs, and it is next to useless beyond 3-4 hours. So  I guess what I am saying is, I wouldn't worry about that particular model.

There are enough subtle changes in the more reliable guidance over the past 2-3 model cycles to put up some caution flags though. Just for a "quick and dirty" look, check out the snow map over last 3 runs of the GFS on TT. Don't look at the amounts, just the trend. It now has all the significant snow focused more NW, as expected in this setup. I said yesterday I thought the ICON looked reasonable, and it has pretty much held.

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Yeah ok...you do realize hes a few miles nw of where you live which means you might not be at 30 yet either especially since you don't measure and just take the highest number recorded 
Let other people do my dirty work. Sounds good to me. Enjoy your 3-5

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6 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

34/21 with a light northerly breeze and a steady barometer.  Only a bit of snow cover survived the warmth yesterday/ overnight.

A bit drier air than I expected in N MD and S PA.  Dews in the low 20's upper teens.  DP just dropped to 25 here in the past few minutes.  I havent been paying attention to what models have been forecasting but I did take a look at the 3k yesterday  and the lowest dp predicted was 28 at HGR.

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