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Perhaps a Coastal Storm on March 2nd for SNE????

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20 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It didn't.

Yeah it makes zero sense though.  You’re not getting an amped system like that on Sunday night behind this.  The Euro will likely gradually tick flatter with that starting at 00Z 

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

All snow

353A8AF8-6EE6-4685-B03F-253F2893E097.png

 

This is awesome.  The model is showing SE NE's geography benefit.  It's like that is where the model thinks the coast-line should be but Mass just juts out into the marine.

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah it makes zero sense though.  You’re not getting an amped system like that on Sunday night behind this.  The Euro will likely gradually tick flatter with that starting at 00Z 

I think some of it depends on how much of that lakes shortwave late in the game tries to phase in...doesn't really affect the storm itself too much at SNE's latitude but a stronger interaction does lower the heights behind that Saturday storm...we saw it on the 18z GFS. The 18z euro didn't really do it enough. But I could see it doing that on future runs if it amps up on Saturday a little further. 

 

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah it makes zero sense though.  You’re not getting an amped system like that on Sunday night behind this.  The Euro will likely gradually tick flatter with that starting at 00Z 

Moreso then 12z

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It's not as organized as the Euro...it's NW of the 18z run, but the 18z run was actually a better looking storm.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's not as organized as the Euro...it's NW of the 18z run, but the 18z run was actually a better looking storm.

The NAM has been extremely weird as of late (and by late for quite a while). One of my professors pointed it out. 

Part of the struggles with this system too is we’re not dealing with a consolidated piece of energy. There are numerous pieces of energy embedded within the flow and the models are struggling vastly. It’s certainly a good sign though that as we get closer to the 24-hr mark we’re nudging towards solutions of higher snow as opposed to less snow.

 

one thing I’ve always liked are how tightly packed the thermal gradient is...that’s always a signal for not only solid banding, but a good indicator of where it can be anticipated. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

The NAM has been extremely weird as of late (and by late for quite a while). One of my professors pointed it out. 

Part of the struggles with this system too is we’re not dealing with a consolidated piece of energy. There are numerous pieces of energy embedded within the flow and the models are struggling vastly. It’s certainly a good sign though that as we get closer to the 24-hr mark we’re nudging towards solutions of higher snow as opposed to less snow.

 

one thing I’ve always liked are how tightly packed the thermal gradient is...that’s always a signal for not only solid banding, but a good indicator of where it can be anticipated. 

NAM definitely looks very "convective-ish" this run....several blobs of it as the low is trying to organize more.

 

The low seems to string out and chase one of those blobs that is near the BM at 30 hours and then just chases it northeast preventing this thing from becoming nice and consolidated like other model guidance.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM definitely looks very "convective-ish" this run....several blobs of it as the low is trying to organize more.

 

The low seems to string out and chase one of those blobs that is near the BM at 30 hours and then just chases it northeast preventing this thing from becoming nice and consolidated like other model guidance.

Seema to be a huge bias of the NAM in these types of setups and struggles mightily. I thought the GFS May have had a good handle with this and even the look on the euro has been intriguing. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

How wet will this be? Will it be a 31-32 degree paster even interior? 

Negative...it's pretty darn cold at 900mb so the snow is going to be pretty dry....interior will prob be that classic 27F snow. Coastline could be a little closer to freezing...so those areas, esp SE MA may have to watch for paste.

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NAM definitely looks very "convective-ish" this run....several blobs of it as the low is trying to organize more.
 
The low seems to string out and chase one of those blobs that is near the BM at 30 hours and then just chases it northeast preventing this thing from becoming nice and consolidated like other model guidance.


Exactly, was mentioning this earlier as a reason for multiple 18z models suddenly collapsing on a big event...
Earlier runs for the past day had diffuse / dual low structure chasing pieces of vorticity further east

There must have been some new sampling of the vorticity (currently pieces over the Rockies and Texas) or something to make all the solutions jump like that

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thats what I had last night..

Nice, good call. I hadn't spent a ton of time on it but wasn't too confident in a bigger event. 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not buying gfs and euro? interesting there....chief CT weenie downer. 

Bob can take em up in the morning. Don't want to go too high. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its just never wise to do a 180 in one shift..

Yeah...18z could've been an over-trend.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it has the right idea...you would hope, at this range lol

From a synoptic pattern perspective, the bigger solution does look pretty reasonable...we've got a negatively tilted shortwave loaded with gulf moisture. There's not a lot that wants to shove it east on a scenario like that. Seems you either string it out with convection or somehow get a weaker system overall because the shortwave trends weaker...but we aren't seeing the latter.

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