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USCAPEWEATHERAF

Perhaps a Coastal Storm on March 2nd for SNE????

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So far today, during the early runs of the 12z NAM, 3km NAM, SREFs and RGEM models, there is a growing consensus on a potential nor'easter that could impact the region with heavy snow, coastal mix, and high winds.  Perhaps if the conditions can warrant, blizzard conditions on Saturday, March 2nd.  We are about 54 hours away from the onset of precipitation.  There are many problems to still figure out.  The strength of the low could be quite intense and close to the benchmark.  With the global models ready to come out next, we will know by 2pm today if there is a growing consensus for an impactful storm, or one that is just too far out to the east to give us little if any precipitation.  Right now confidence is growing in potential impacts, snow could fall 4-8" from WOR to HARTFORD, CT, and 8-12" across eastern MA and parts of Rhode Island.  I will update every one on my blog after 2pm, with a preliminary snowfall map.

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GFS has a nice commahead look to it...would probably even be a little better on the northwest side than the qpf maps think.

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It’s coming for at least southern and eastern areas on Saturday. Scooter jack?!  He’s playing Kevin’s good old reverse psychology game. 

Probably will become a good storm river east. 

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Wow, the Icon looked sweet. And now the GFS.  So far 12z guidance dropping around 0.50" in SE MA as snow.

Scooter crying works everytime.  Would be like this forum to look past Sat and whine about Monday

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So thankful this has trended fully into a daytime thing on Saturday. Hoping the March sun angle can take care of the meager amount of snow we get up this way. 

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8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Zoomed in QPF GFS for Saturday. Shows around 0.75 imby.

qpf_acc.us_ne.png.d2e79b511585e65d12cab5bbae638325.png

 

Rgem extended gives you about .6

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11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Nice job to the Mod that moved the discussion into this thread.  

Thx

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2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

That looks sweet.

Def a big improvement over 00z, but not as good as the GFS solution. If the Euro can make a pretty notable jump toward this today, I think we're in business...I wouldn't expect Dr. No to come all the way in one run...but a non-microscopic jump will be telling. I'm guessing it will...the 06z run actually looked decent aloft, but it wasn't really drawing that sfc reflection in toward it as well as the other models we've seen.

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